Need help understanding pitching scoring

[VolsRaysBucs]

Mike for President, 2012! :iatp:

You've got dibs on your choice of VP, Sec of State or Chief of Staff!   :toast:

Who are we kidding, there's no place in politics for a social moderate/ fiscal conservative  :rofl:

[Canada8999]

I'd go along with this as well, except it appears the majority would rather adjust a system they are not happy with.  Regardelss of whether or not we make the changes I'd personally like to see, I will not be taking my ball and going home.  Constructive criticism and constantly analyzing a system with so many moving parts is not "bashing or *itching," it is due dilligence on the part of league participants.  Does MLB look at division alignment, wildcards, DH, ect on a "constant" basis.  Yep.  Does the NFL visit revenue sharing, 18 games schedules, shorter preseasons, larger active rosters, ect on a "constant" basis.  Again, yep.  If one is looking for a league where their thoughts and ideas are paramount, one could create a 4-8 team league where everyone thinks exactly alike.  If one is trying to field a 30 team league, one had better be prepared to have debate and dissenting voices aimed at their positions.  This is a free league.  If 1,000 Bill James' said that our scoring system was terrific, it still would not change the fact that a majority of GM's do not favor it.  There are no algorithms to dispute this.  I am a saber myself, but realize that data, if viewed through only one prism, can and will be skewed.  Dress it as you will, but the scoring system does not reflect real life VALUE.  Again, if my team walks 20 batters and wins 1-0, the pitcher did his job.  He recorded 27 outs without giving up a run.  To me, the offense was LUCKY to get the walks and the pitcher was SKILLED in working around them.  Viewed either way, how can one side say the other is wrong?  Does it not come down to preference?

I do want to point out that before the current system was put into place there was a league wide vote on which categories would be used, working from a list of categories nominated by any league member.  At the time it was deemed a firm scoring system was required and it should not be revised, since all future moves would be based on that player evaluation.

I agree with many of your points, and I think we're all working towards getting on the same page here to reach a system most can agree with.  If the turnover in this league has been sufficient enough that we need to revise the system to keep everyone happy then so be it, but I will argue again that once we put a new system in place it needs to locked down - we cannot revamp the scoring every few seasons.  More so than any other section of the rules, too many decisions depend on a stable scoring system.

[Canada8999]

Taking Dan's idea, I tried to some testing using the current year data. Here are some preliminary results (I did this in 15 minutes) using the following scoring system:
   
IP   5
BB   -4
K   7.5
HR   -10
XBHA   -8
GB   1.5

I tried to balance it so the the overall value for pitchers do not increase (at least for the top 100 starters).

I think this is better balance between the sabermetric statistics and the conventional statistics. We can play around with the weights. This is a just a first draft, but at least now we have a tangible alternative.

I think these are good categories to work with.

We would want XBHA to not include HR since HR is a separate category, making it 2B+3B.  Now I don't think doubles and triples are within the pitchers control, but its not a huge stretch and is a good compromise. 

If we are including these and HR, GB will be inherent and we do not need to include them explicitly (pitchers who induce more GB will naturally allow fewer XBH/H as most GB go for singles, occasionally doubles)

Instead of IP, we could consider Outs - K, so we don't double count K's.

With respect to weighing, I agree with Colby that we need to stay within the current % distribution of Hitting/Fielding/Pitching, which is defined in the rules as 47% / 17% / 36%.  However, before we jump into assigning specific weights, I believe we should formally agree on what categories are to be used.

[h4cheng]

I do want to point out that before the current system was put into place there was a league wide vote on which categories would be used, working from a list of categories nominated by any league member.  At the time it was deemed a firm scoring system was required and it should not be revised, since all future moves would be based on that player evaluation.

I agree with many of your points, and I think we're all working towards getting on the same page here to reach a system most can agree with.  If the turnover in this league has been sufficient enough that we need to revise the system to keep everyone happy then so be it, but I will argue again that once we put a new system in place it needs to locked down - we cannot revamp the scoring every few seasons.  More so than any other section of the rules, too many decisions depend on a stable scoring system.

Ben, I appreciate and understand your concern. It sucks to plan ahead only to have the scoring system change. The good news is with my initial proposal, 68% of the top 100 SPs would see their total points change by less than +/- 10%.

[Colby]

:bump:

[lp815]

Maybe the first course of action would be to set up a poll with one simple question:  Do we need to change the official scoring system in FGM, yes or no?  I'd recommend if we have a 2/3 majority, we go from there.  We have only heard from probably 10 members regarding this, a poll might get the other members to voice their opinions.

[guak2005]

While I do agree that there is something wrong with our pitching scoring system, particularly when I see that Joe Francis with his 5.04 era is averaging 10 more points per start than Josh Tomlin with his 2.70 era, I have to say that any changes made should be done for the year 2013, as to minimize the future damage for those who have built their squads based on the current scoring system. The proposed changes diminish greatly the value of control pitchers and groundball pitchers which have been the targets of many GMs in the league.

[Colby]

While I do agree that there is something wrong with our pitching scoring system, particularly when I see that Joe Francis with his 5.04 era is averaging 10 more points per start than Josh Tomlin with his 2.70 era, I have to say that any changes made should be done for the year 2013, as to minimize the future damage for those who have built their squads based on the current scoring system. The proposed changes diminish greatly the value of control pitchers and groundball pitchers which have been the targets of many GMs in the league.

OR we phase them in... the changes will be slight adjustments to GB, BB, and IP and perhaps an inclusion of FB and XBHA (with HR already included)

[Canada8999]

While I do agree that there is something wrong with our pitching scoring system, particularly when I see that Joe Francis with his 5.04 era is averaging 10 more points per start than Josh Tomlin with his 2.70 era, I have to say that any changes made should be done for the year 2013, as to minimize the future damage for those who have built their squads based on the current scoring system. The proposed changes diminish greatly the value of control pitchers and groundball pitchers which have been the targets of many GMs in the league.

OR we phase them in... the changes will be slight adjustments to GB, BB, and IP and perhaps an inclusion of FB and XBHA (with HR already included)

I think we are aware of the risks/concerns of changing the scoring system, and should take care to make sure any changes are implemented in a timeline that will have an 'acceptable' impact on owners who built their teams for the current system.  I think we've got a few steps to go through before we decide on how to implement though, as it will depend on how significant the changes end up being (if they're pretty minor, we may decide to start for 2012, if they're more significant we may want to wait longer). 

One step at a time though, and I agree with Jake that the first step should be a league wide vote on whether or not we should make any changes, and it needs 2/3 "Yes" votes to be approved (20 total votes, not just 66% of participants).  I think the next step is solidifying which categories, then weights, then when we implement.  If we want to re-visit the IP limit (which has been discussed some), it should be in a separate thread.

My two cents...

[Canada8999]

Maybe the first course of action would be to set up a poll with one simple question:  Do we need to change the official scoring system in FGM, yes or no?  I'd recommend if we have a 2/3 majority, we go from there.  We have only heard from probably 10 members regarding this, a poll might get the other members to voice their opinions.

 :iatp:

... although I would narrow the scope of the poll to "Do we need to change the official scoring system for pitchers in FCM, yes or no?"

20 Yes votes we move forward with picking categories and assigning weights
else, the discussion is closed (at least until the offseason, when I'm sure it will be brought up and we can have the vote again).