Author Topic: Winter Preview - NL Central  (Read 718 times)

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Dan Wood

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Winter Preview - NL Central
« on: November 12, 2011, 02:25:51 PM »
This is a first of many posts that will analyze each team as well as divisional races. Similar to what I did last year. It will also, hopefully, bring some action to the site while we wait for free agency to open up.

I will start with the division that I am currently in, the NL Central

Brewers
Starting Lineup
C Mauer, Joe, $10m (2013)
CI Pujols, Albert, $27.5m (2015)
CI Hosmer, Eric, $0.5m (P-n/a)
MI Utley, Chase, $15m (2013)
MI Weeks, Jemile, $0.5m (P-n/a)
OF Braun, Ryan, $5.5m (2015)
OF Berkman, Lance, $12.5m (2013)
OF Ordonez, Magglio, $2m (2012)
UT Alonso, Yonder, $1m (2012)

Starting Pitchers
P Haren, Dan, $11m (2012)
P Shields, James, $3m (2014)
P Bailey, Homer, $0.5m (2013)
P Morton, Charlie, $0.5m (2012)
P Leake, Mike, $0.5m (P-2013)

Analysis: This team has proved year in and year out to be as good as any in the FGM universe. All-Stars top to bottom.
What Could Happen: Age and health could certainly catch up to this team. Berkman had an amazing year, but has never been the healthiest of guys. Mauer has difficulty staying on the field. Who knows what Utley is now, and Magglio has turned into a singles hitter.
What Needs To Happen: Good health and this team will not suffer. Alonso needs a spot to play, Hosmer and Weeks need to continue their growth arc and all will be right in Bernie land.
What Will Happen: Chances are this team will win another 100 games. Hosmer, Braun, and Albert are tough to beat, as are Haren and Shields at the top of the rotation.

Reds
Starting Lineup
C Montero, Jesus, $0.5m (P-n/a)
CI Davis, Ike, $4.0m (2016)
CI Rizzo, Anthony, $0.5m (P-n/a)
MI Sizemore, Scott, $0.5m (P-n/a)               
MI Beckham, Gordon, $0.5m (P-2012)   
OF Hamilton, Josh, $18m (2015)
OF Morgan, Nyjer, $1m (2012)
OF Duda, Lucas, $2.0m (2014)
UT Butler, Billy, $9m (2012)

Rotation
SP Britton, Zach, $2m (2014)
SP Porcello, Rick, $2m (2012)
SP Tillman, Chris, $0.5m (P-2012)
SP Cobb, Alex, $0.5m (P-n/a)
SP Hand, Brad, $0.5m (P-n/a)
SP Ross, Tyson, $0.5m (P-n/a)

Analysis: After just missing the playoffs in 2010, this team took a big dump in 2011. Injuries, lack of depth, and steps back from several key players killed the Reds. They are younger and deeper (hopefully) in 2012
What Could Happen: With rose colored glasses this team could compete for a wild card or 2012 could be a repeat of 2011.
What Needs To Happen: As a young team the following will be needed - steps forward from Ike, Butler, Snider, Rizzo, and Duda. Montero needs to play, Cobb/Hand/Ross/ and Miley need to pitch, and Beckham needs to play like it's 2009. As the one true marquee name on the Reds, Hamilton needs to stop going head first into home, or the Centerfield wall.
What Will Likely Happen: Unless the Reds get some help via a top of the rotation guy, they really cannot compete with the big boys of the league.

Cardinals
Starting Line Up
C  ALEX AVILA $5m (2016)
CI/OF MITCH MORELAND $0.5M (P-2014)
CI KENDRYS MORALES $11m (2015)
MI NEIL WALKER $4m (2016)
MI DEE GORDON $0.5 (P-2014)
OF JOSH WILLINGHAM $2.5m (2012)
OF/MI/CI EMILIO BONIFACIO $5m (2016)
OF ALLEN CRAIG $0.5m (P-2014)
MI OMAR INFANTE $4m (2013)

STARTING PITCHERS:
SP JOSH JOHNSON $13.5m (2012)
SP MATT GARZA $10m (2014)
SP JHOULYS CHACIN $4m (2016)
SP RANDY WOLF $5m (2012)
SP NATHAN EOVALDI $0.5m (P-n/a)
MI OMAR INFANTE $4m (2013)

Analysis: The best way to describe the Cards is solid across the board. They don't come with a lot of star power, but they come to play and win. Year to year they are one of the deepest, and best constructed teams in the league.
What Could Happen: This team could actually go a lot of ways. Kendrys could come back and rake, Moreland could be a full time player, Willingham could continue to be the most underpaid player in the league. Avila, Boniacio, and Craig could all continue their ascents to good to elite players. It could also go in the opposite direction, and none of that could happen.
What Needs To Happen: All that is listed above. Kendrys needs to come back, Moreland needs to play, and Avila needs to remain one of the best catchers in the league.
What Will Happen: Yet another unsexy 90-100 win season from the kids in St. Louis. The only way I can see this team faltering is if many bad things happen.

Pirates
Starting Line Up
C Matt Wieters
CI Casey Kotchman
CI Kevin Youkilis
MI Alexi Casilla
MI Jason Donald
OF Andre Ethier
OF Nick Swisher
OF Ben Revere
UT Juan Pierre

Rotation
SP Gio Gonzalez
SP J.A Happ
SP James McDonald
SP Tommy Hunter
SP Anthony Swarzak

Analysis: The Pirates made a run for it last year but came up short. They made so many deals, it is hard to keep track of. After a really bad season in 2010, the Pirates rebounded nicely in 2011.
What Could Happen: With it's core of Youk, Ethier, Swisher, and Wieters, this team could put up a decent enough fight. If Colby can manage to fill the holes currently at MI and in the rotation through the season we could be looking at a wildcard team.
What needs to happen: First and foremost Youkilis needs to stay on the field in order for this team to be successful (he has yet to do so). Wieters needs to be the player he was in the second half of last year. Swisher needs to stay a Yankee, and Ethier needs to hit for more power next season. The rest of the line up will have to pull their weight.
What will happen: Without upgrading the rotation and middle infield, I cannot imagine this being more than a .500 team.

Chicago Cubs

Starting Line Up
C - N/A
CI - Brent Morel
CI - Mark DeRosa
MI - N/A
MI - N/A
OF - Jason Bay
OF - Alex Gordon
OF - Mike Trout
UT - Peter Bourjos

Rotation
SP - Stephen Strasburgh
SP - Tyler Chatwood
SP - Mike Minor
SP - Jon Garland
SP - Anthony Bass

Analysis - This team went from a horrible .500 team, to a bad way under .500 team. After the current GM wiped away the stink of the old regime things started moving in the right direction.
What Could Happen: In 3 years time this could be a powerhouse of FGM, buut for right now it is a team with a few sound building blocks and a lot of empty spaces. I expect Kris to make a splash on the FA market in order to make his team respectable.
What Should Happen: Since this team is currently incomplete, Kris should spend like he has Brewster's Millions in hand. There are very few teams with his available funds.
What Will Happen: Chances are the Cubs will be lined up for an early round pick in the draft and the rebuilding will be continued with a big 2013 in their sights.

Astros
C- Yadiar Molina
CI- Adrian Belte
CI- Alberto Callaspo
MI- Orlando Cabrera
MI- Jed Lowrie
OF- Michael Bourn
OF- Hunter Pence
OF- Jason Kubel
UT- Tyler Covin/Jason Bourgeois

SP- Wandy Rodriguez
SP- Brett Myers
SP- Trevor Cahill
SP- Kevin Correia
SP- John Lackey - DL

Analysis - The Stros had a let down of sorts in 2011 finishing under .500 after making the playoffs in 2010. With his current roster he could push for yet another playoff spot in the year ahead.
What Could Happen: The Astros could be one of the several playoff contenders coming out of the Central. His team is sneaky good. A nice top 3 in the rotation, and a very deep line up.
What Needs To Happen: The Astros are going to need a good season out of Lowrie to put them in the upper echelon. Pence, Bourn, Kubel, Beltre, Molina, and Callaspo are all known quantities and provide this team with average to above average regulars. Beltre being the best bat on the team needs to avoid the injury bug.
What Will Happen: Like many other teams in this division, the Astros will be at least an above average team in the National League, with the playoffs definitely a possibility.

« Last Edit: November 12, 2011, 05:15:56 PM by Dan Wood »
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Offline h4cheng

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Re: Winter Preview - NL Central
« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2011, 10:11:21 PM »
good read a++

are they in the order of how you think the teams will finish?
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Dan Wood

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Re: Winter Preview - NL Central
« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2011, 10:33:49 PM »
Nah I didn't do an order...If I had to it would be...

Brewers - solid, and has many pieces to move
Cards - a very good team
Reds - a lot to prove - a lot could go right, a lot could go wrong
Stros - a very good team - could finish second
Pirates - I think Colby has a very good team, but a lot is riding on Youk and Kotchman
Cubs - but that could change with what Kris pulls in during FA
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Offline MillerTime

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Re: Winter Preview - NL Central
« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2011, 09:46:47 AM »
Well done Dan, appreciate you taking the time. 
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Re: Winter Preview - NL Central
« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2011, 07:43:23 PM »
Excellent read Dan.  The Pirates have cash available for free agency this year and plan on spending it!
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Brewers GM

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Re: Winter Preview - NL Central
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2011, 10:14:29 PM »
From a very biased reader, nice work Dan  :toth:
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