Author Topic: Some thoughts for the RC - and rest of the league (Read 14507 times)

rcankosy · « **Reply #50 on:** September 12, 2012, 03:45:15 PM »

Colby,

Could you please provide a re-fresher course on how team salary caps are computed? I too am curious when my own team's cap will be re-calculated and how it will be done.

Colby · « **Reply #51 on:** September 12, 2012, 03:54:00 PM »

Quote from: rcankosy on September 12, 2012, 03:45:15 PM

Colby,

Could you please provide a re-fresher course on how team salary caps are computed? I too am curious when my own team's cap will be re-calculated and how it will be done.

You can just send me the spreadsheet (or Howe or whoever has it) and I will update the info. Essentially, if the A's win the World Series then the highest payroll in real-life 2012 MLB will be applied to their future caps (two years out, and used for three years). There is a stipulation that prevents volatile cap swings of more than 20%, so that is regressed against the current caps.

rcankosy · « **Reply #52 on:** September 12, 2012, 04:33:46 PM »

Quote from: ProFSL on September 12, 2012, 03:54:00 PM

You can just send me the spreadsheet (or Howe or whoever has it) and I will update the info. Essentially, if the A's win the World Series then the highest payroll in real-life 2012 MLB will be applied to their future caps (two years out, and used for three years). There is a stipulation that prevents volatile cap swings of more than 20%, so that is regressed against the current caps.

What do you mean by the "highest payroll in real-life 2012 MLB"? I did not think there was a correlation between our teams and MLB teams. Perhaps, that is what confused Dan Wood as well.

Colby · « **Reply #53 on:** September 12, 2012, 05:09:34 PM »

Quote from: rcankosy on September 12, 2012, 04:33:46 PM

What do you mean by the "highest payroll in real-life 2012 MLB"? I did not think there was a correlation between our teams and MLB teams. Perhaps, that is what confused Dan Wood as well.

From the chat
rcankosy: we need the layman's explanation for all this
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rcankosy: I'm afraid no more than 5 people may understand all this
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shooter47: Haven't the orioles come pretty close to bottoming out their cap...if you finish 30th every year the only fluctuation in the cap would be what the lowest team in the majors has spent?
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shooter47: I understand the cap system...its not that bad
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ProFSL: there is no layman's explanation other than this... you win, and your caps two years out will increase a bit
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ProFSL: sound logic was developed to put it together, it doesn't replicate revenue sharing or ownership, but it is a great cap adjustment formula
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rcankosy: the logic is sound
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rcankosy: the effect are not predicatble (at least not to me)
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rcankosy: asked another way
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rcankosy: how many years of winning the WS would it take for the As to "inherit" the Yanks' real life MLB payroll?
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rcankosy: 5, 10, 25 years?
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rcankosy: ever?
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shooter47: a long time...
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rcankosy: understood
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rcankosy: define long time
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ProFSL: a long time
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rcankosy: if it's more than 5 years, something is wrong
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ProFSL: I can break out a spreadsheet for this one
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rcankosy: we should not be wed to our real life counter-parts for that long
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ProFSL: cap is at $81m, and say the highest payroll + $20m is $230m
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rcankosy: that defeats the premise of winning
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shooter47: It's designed to make the changes to the salary cap smoother and not raise or fall by huge amounts
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rcankosy: I know we capped it at 20M per season
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rcankosy: I mean 20%
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ProFSL: got the answer...
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ProFSL: if they win world series every year
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ProFSL: their caps for 2012/13 are set
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ProFSL: 2014 is at $90.5m right now
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ProFSL: but looks like it will go to $102m
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ProFSL: In 2017, it will be $148.6m
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ProFSL: In 2019, it is no longer affected by the 20/20 smoothing adjustment and the cap is $184.0m
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rcankosy: wow
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ProFSL: 2020-2024, $195.5m, $204.1m, $210.6m, $215.4m, $219.1m
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ProFSL: the increases slow down since they are so close to the top
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rcankosy: effectively, they would become the Yankees if they continue to win
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ProFSL: note that if all of a sudden they start losing big time, worst in the league, that there will still be two years in which their caps would increase based on the past
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ProFSL: Of course... but it doesn't happen overnight, it takes up to a decade of dominance for a small market team to turn into the Yankees
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shooter47: eventually yeah...this is assuming that the spending in MLB baseball stays similar to what it currently is.
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ProFSL: also, those #'s aren't set
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ProFSL: they are assumptions based on the $230m figure
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ProFSL: MLB inflation will drive these numbers higher
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ProFSL: and affect our market prices for players
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ProFSL: We thought about all of this when the rules were developed
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rcankosy: gotcha
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ProFSL: As opposed to a simple layman's way which will turn the A's into the Yankees within a few years