Scoring for Pitchers

[rcankosy]

Guys,

We might want to consider revising the scoring for pitchers if we want this league to accurately reflect the pitcher's relative worths in real life.  Having a system that doesn't seem to penalize earned runs or baserunners allowed seems to be counter to real life.  For example, Justin Masterson is the 23rd ranked pitcher according in fantrax and here are his real life numbers:

ERA      5.31
WHIP  1.629

The only things he seems to do well is produce groundballs and prevent home runs.  He is one example, but there are many others.  I know people have traded based on the current system, but that should not prevent us from trying to revise it if we agree that it's not realistic.

Roy

[clidwin]

Guys,

We might want to consider revising the scoring for pitchers if we want this league to accurately reflect the pitcher's relative worths in real life.  Having a system that doesn't seem to penalize earned runs or baserunners allowed seems to be counter to real life.  For example, Justin Masterson is the 23rd ranked pitcher according in fantrax and here are his real life numbers:

ERA      5.31
WHIP  1.629

The only things he seems to do well is produce groundballs and prevent home runs.  He is one example, but there are many others.  I know people have traded based on the current system, but that should not prevent us from trying to revise it if we agree that it's not realistic.

Roy

Yes, I also agree that the pitching scoring needs to be changed.

[Canada8999]

I strongly disagree

We have scoring for pitchers that is based on significant amounts of research for a pitcher's actual skill.  Furthermore, we agreed that the scoring format should be discussed heavily (as it was) and then set once and fixed, with only minor tweaks in the future - this is because all player movements are based on the players value in our league / scoring format...

[Canada8999]

As for the Masterson reference, he has been terribly unlucky but his underlying skills have been strong - his tERA (which is a significantly more accurate reflection of a pitchers contribution than ERA is) is 3.82:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2038&position=P

The problem with his ERA/WHIP is a 0.348 BABIP - the very kind of bad luck our scoring format is designed to prevent...

[rcankosy]

Maybe I'm missing something.  We have 4 pitching categories:

GB
HR allowed
K
BB

How exactly are all those fancy stats such as BABIP and FIP taken into account that would measure a pitcher's true ability if we're not using basic ones such as ERA and WHIP?  Absent that, perhaps someone who came up with this measure could explain how it's superior to the ones used in the major leagues in salary talks.  I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel here, but I've seen horrible games by pitchers who have allowed 10, 11 hits and 8-10 ER (such as recent games by Shields and Maholm) result in average pitching points because of the stats we're using.  I'd like to hear from the rest of the RC on this issue.

[lp815]

Maybe I'm missing something.  We have 4 pitching categories:

GB
HR allowed
K
BB

How exactly are all those fancy stats such as BABIP and FIP taken into account that would measure a pitcher's true ability if we're not using basic ones such as ERA and WHIP?  Absent that, perhaps someone who came up with this measure could explain how it's superior to the ones used in the major leagues in salary talks.  I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel here, but I've seen horrible games by pitchers who have allowed 10, 11 hits and 8-10 ER (such as recent games by Shields and Maholm) result in average pitching points because of the stats we're using.  I'd like to hear from the rest of the RC on this issue.

Scoring isn't really my strong point (math isn't my forte), so I will abstain from this discussion for the time being, as I know that Mike, Colby, Dan, and Ben have a much firmer grip on types of scoring than I do, and I know for a fact that Mike, Ben, and Colby were the lead innovators for the current format.

However I, for the time being, do not see a huge issue with the current system, as I know that a lot of time and effort was put into this scoring format, and it had to have been implemented for solid reasons.

[Canada8999]

Maybe I'm missing something.  We have 4 pitching categories:

GB
HR allowed
K
BB

How exactly are all those fancy stats such as BABIP and FIP taken into account that would measure a pitcher's true ability if we're not using basic ones such as ERA and WHIP?  Absent that, perhaps someone who came up with this measure could explain how it's superior to the ones used in the major leagues in salary talks.  I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel here, but I've seen horrible games by pitchers who have allowed 10, 11 hits and 8-10 ER (such as recent games by Shields and Maholm) result in average pitching points because of the stats we're using.  I'd like to hear from the rest of the RC on this issue.

The short answer is these categories are those that the pitcher controls, and everything else is out of his hands - ERA and WHIP are products of these categories, but they also include a significant about of luck.  For that reason, if you're going to pick statistical categories to rate your pitchers buy you might as well stick with the ones that they actually control and represent their true skills/performance (and for the record, this was one of Colby's founding principles for the league)

If you're interested in learning more about where all of this research comes from, I suggest researching things such as DIPS, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, tERA, etc.

Some sites that come up:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batted-balls-and-dips/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pitcher-win-values-explained-part-two

and not that ESPN has anything to do with generating these findings, but just to show that they are referenced by major sports sites:
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?id=5260306

[rcankosy]

Yes, I am familiar with all those stats you rattled off, and I've read articles on the topic.  However, I don't buy the theory that hits allowed and earned runs are primarily defensive dependant stats.  The good pitchers are hard to hit and they bear down with men on base to prevent runs from scoring. 

Anyway, I think we can improve our scoring for pitchers by simply adding a few categories such as hits and earned runs allowed.  The good pitchers will not be penalized, and the bad ones will fall in the rankings.   

[Needle Juice]

It is very tough to manage a team with moving target rules.  However, I understand continuous improvement of a league.

The primary issue I have with this, is it would change the value of many of the transactions of this season.  Managers have planned for this system in their transactions.

[Colby]

I fully support our scoring system.  You'll also have some statistical outliers, but at the end of the day, the pitchers with the most strikeouts, least walks, and possibly more groundballs (generally will be outs where as flyballs will lead to hits) will have better ERA and WHIP.