Tiers Remodeled

[rcankosy]

Colby,

Have we given up the idea of adopting the cap values you quoted from the New Era League as the "new" starting points prior to implementing this change? 

[Colby]

Colby,

Have we given up the idea of adopting the cap values you quoted from the New Era League as the "new" starting points prior to implementing this change?

No, those values, and how they were determined will still be used.  They reflect the real life salaries and economic fluctuations.  This way, 10 years down the road, we will still have similar salaries to the major leagues.

It may take several seconds to load.  I had to put up a large image size to get better clarity.  We don't know how our teams will finish in 2010.  We don't know what the total payrolls of the actual MLB teams will be for this year or next.  The 2012 caps rely on such information, so I had to fill it out for 2010, and I made it the same as 2009.  If you do better than 2009, then your cap could go up more for 2012.  If you do worse than 2009, then your cap could do down a bit from its listed 2012 value.  Of course, your cap could only change by 20% at most year-to-year, so please keep that in mind.

Some teams such as the Yankees, Phillies, and Tigers may have to cut back, but we knew their caps were too high to begin with.  They'll still only change by 20% and they could theoretically change by more in the old system, so this is even more stable for the big market teams. I like the results of this...

SEE ATTACHED IMAGE

[Canada8999]

FYI, I believe Ben meant that the Cap was the average of the Returns.  I'll make something up in Excel today and post it.

correct, good catch

[Canada8999]

Looks great to me Colby...

 :iatp:

[rcankosy]

It looks good to me as well.  I approve this proposal.

[Colby]

Jake, Chad, M.J....

[clidwin]

 :iatp:

[lp815]

I dunno...I'm still seeing some pretty big drops from 2010 to 2011, $50 mil drop for the Yankees, $40 mil for the Mets and Phillies..am I reading that correctly?

[Colby]

I dunno...I'm still seeing some pretty big drops from 2010 to 2011, $50 mil drop for the Yankees, $40 mil for the Mets and Phillies..am I reading that correctly?

Correct... that is because we have a 20% max drop or raise.  We could change that to 20 and 20... % and $m.

[Colby]

In 2011, the league will feature variable salary caps for all teams based on the three-year average (2008-2010) payroll (as of beginning of playing season) + $20m.  The 2009 and 2010 seasons will be numbers from Franchise GM that we have whereas 2008 will be the actual payroll number for the 2008 teams.

Use those cap numbers, movement between cap values would be based on the following formula.

Cap ranking (CAPR) - 1st for highest cap, 30th for lowest from above list
Standings (STAND) - 1st for WS champ, 9th for best team out of playoffs, 30th for worst team in MLB

The new cap ranking is then hooked up with the new 3-year average + $20m.  This gives the weighting 25% to performance and 75% to current market status.

At the end of each season, we will combine how the team did (STAND) with their existing cap ranking (CAPR) to determine the value that season will have on their future cap numbers (did they gain or lose cap?).  Lets call that RETURN.

RETURN[YEAR] = Max(0.8CAPR(YEAR),Min(1.2CAPR(YEAR),3*CAPR(YEAR) + STAND(YEAR))

The CAPR and STAND values are both payroll numbers using the CAPR and STAND rankings on the actual MLB payroll averages (+$20m).

To calculate a team's salary cap in any season, we take the simple average of their past three seasons return, skipping the most recent (so we can always forecast one extra into the future):

CAP[2011] = AVERAGE(RETURN[2007] + RETURN[2008] + RETURN[2009])

In the absence of Franchise GM for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the actual payroll and standings rankings are used.

Example
New York Mets Franchise GM Standing 2007-2009: 10th, 10th, 30th
finish example...