ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats

[rcankosy]

Jeremy (New Orleans)


Keith, my law school does a mock MLB salary arbitration competition judged by agents, gms and other knowledgeable baseball personnel. When arguing a case, in your opinion, how much emphasis should be put on stats like WAR, UZR ect, and what is the best way to respond to opposing arguments using the same stats
Klaw
  (1:12 PM)


If someone quotes WAR or UZR, remind them that the goal is to win games, and therefore pitcher wins are the most important stat of all.

[Colby]

Pitchers receive more wins if the offense on their team is better.  This makes it inappropriate to use in a fantasy league where our fantasy offense is different than the pitcher's real-life offense.

[bravesfan4]

The perfect thing to use in Quality Starts. Those are not effected by the teams offensive performance.

[rcankosy]

Pitchers receive more wins if the offense on their team is better.  This makes it inappropriate to use in a fantasy league where our fantasy offense is different than the pitcher's real-life offense.

NL pitchers get more Ks and give up fewer HRs, because they generally face weaker lineups plus they face pitchers rather than DHs. 

[Colby]

NL pitchers get more Ks and give up fewer HRs, because they generally face weaker lineups plus they face pitchers rather than DHs.

Sure... which is why you may go after an NL pitcher over a similar talented AL pitcher in any fantasy league.

[Dan Wood]

I think Keith was being sarcastic. He has been on record many times discussing how wins are NOT the most important, nay controllable, stat of a pitcher. Hence the Zack Grienke and Felix Hernandez over CC for Cy Young argument two years in a row.

[Dan Wood]

With QS, I don't think 3 ERs in 6 Innings is quality. Over a season that's a 4.50 ERA... kind of doo doo. Just my opinion.

[Colby]

With QS, I don't think 3 ERs in 6 Innings is quality. Over a season that's a 4.50 ERA... kind of doo doo. Just my opinion.

The worst SP with all QS would have a 4.50 ERA.  You have to view 4.50 ERA as the absolute worst for a pitcher with all QS whereas most cases their ERA would be very low.

[Dan Wood]

True, but at the same time you can argue that point all you want, the fact remains you have a 4.50 ERA over 6 innings, you are in the QS club. I think it is too broad of a stat to differentiate great-good-mediocre-poor starters.

[bravesfan4]

QS has really helped seperate good from average pitchers in New Era. The scoring system is almost identical to fgm. except the bonus of 5 points for a hold or save and a 15 point bonus for QS. The hitters are still more valuable than pitchers, but the elite pitchers are worth more than the average hitter. And it seperates them from the average sp's. Its worked out great.