Extending Prospects

[Dan Wood]

Just wanted to put this in front of the RC. Since many young players are signing contracts before they are arbitration eligible. I think we should try and do a similar thing in this league. My idea, and it needs work, would be to allow the extending of prospects based on service time and not based on Fantrax. Allow me to explain. In my proposal a GM could pay his young players based on how many years left they have of prospect eligibility. It would be based on how many years they have exhausted. Since this will not go into effect this year, I will players from this year as hypothetical examples. All contracts given to these players would have to be for the maximum five years. As it would stand now, going into the 2010 season, anyone with their prospect eligibility expiring at the end of 2010 would not be able to be extended, it would have to be done a year before their prospect status expires. Now the numbers would need a little work but here goes.

p - n/a - 5 years, 5 mil
p - 2012 - 5 years, 6 mil
p- 2011 - 5 years 7 mil

The contracts and the numbers would not be debatable. They would have to be a set number. It would be a gamble on the GMs part to extend said player, but it could be a worthwhile gamble. I think with the upcoming payroll fluctuations from year to year, it may be best to come up with a system of signing our own players long term. Again, like I said the numbers above good change, but I think this is a good place to start. Otherwise we will always be paying our best players, even if they came from our own system top dollar. With the way that real life GMs operate, I don't feel that paying our prospects top dollar when the time comes, isn't the best representation. The floor is now open.

[Colby]

5, 6, and 7 may be too high... and GMs should still be given the option to sign prospects at market value.  Look at Longoria's real life contract... 6 years at $3m/year (on average).  That would almost correlate to 5 years at $4m/year. or 4 years at $4.5m/year.  You are basically calling for the idea of signing such prospect-eligible players to contracts less than market value as long as the terms are longer. 

[Dan Wood]

That is correct. I am all up for moving the limit to 4, but that doesn't really do anything since prospect contracts end after 3 years. Most contracts for young players are in the 5 year range. Like I said this is just an idea, and would like to hear other opinions on it. Ways to improve it, different ways to do the numbers. Different ideas on the numbers. But I think paying someone like Justin Upton (if the D'Backs still had him) 15 mil a year, which is what he will prolly end up costing once Fantrax values are considered, takes some of the point of producing your own players away. I just think putting in a system, whether it be my idea, or someone else's should be put in place, or at least considered. Adam Lind came out of prospect status and instantly made 15.5 mil. That really doesn't ever happen, or in this day and age, happens very rarely. Joe Mauer went through 1 long term contract before cashing in. So did Sabathia, and Cliff Lee will soon be there.

[Colby]

That is correct. I am all up for moving the limit to 4, but that doesn't really do anything since prospect contracts end after 3 years. Most contracts for young players are in the 5 year range. Like I said this is just an idea, and would like to hear other opinions on it. Ways to improve it, different ways to do the numbers. Different ideas on the numbers. But I think paying someone like Justin Upton (if the D'Backs still had him) 15 mil a year, which is what he will prolly end up costing once Fantrax values are considered, takes some of the point of producing your own players away. I just think putting in a system, whether it be my idea, or someone else's should be put in place, or at least considered. Adam Lind came out of prospect status and instantly made 15.5 mil. That really doesn't ever happen, or in this day and age, happens very rarely. Joe Mauer went through 1 long term contract before cashing in. So did Sabathia, and Cliff Lee will soon be there.

This is such a key point that we need to address.  Huge salaries for these uber-prospects don't happen in baseball.  The top prospects usually receive longer term contracts at prices of $3m-$8m/year.  What we could do is apply a reduction factor to contract extension values for players who are under prospect contracts.  The reduction would come with a cap of $Xm/year, maybe X = 8?

[lp815]

You'd might want to go a bit shorter than that, Colb.  I'd recommend maximum of $5m.  Longoria from a prior post is a prime example.  Tremendous prospect, but is only getting $3m per year.  I'd say it really doesn't get better than him, but $5m might be a good max.

[Colby]

A maximum of $5m may do well.  There would have to be a minimum salary that would warrant these special contracts as well.

[lp815]

I would probably not recommend the base ($0.5m), as these prospects are supposed to be put higher than normal specs.  $1m possibly?

[Dan Wood]

I think the minimum should be 5 mil, and base the next level of payment on service time.

[Colby]

I think the minimum should be 5 mil, and base the next level of payment on service time.

That doesn't explain Longoria's deal... which would convert to 5 years at $3.5m/year in this league.

[Dan Wood]

Cause Longoria's deal was an outlier. Even at the time it was viewed upon as weird. But he had also never played a game, or played like 4 or something. Plus his deal could end up being worth 44 mil, with options, which is something we don't do.

"Longoria gets $500,000 this year, $550,000 in 2009, $950,000 in 2010 and $2 million in 2011, a salary that would increase to $2.5 million if he is eligible for salary arbitration that year. He receives $4.5 million in 2012 and $6 million in 2013.

Tampa Bay has a $7.5 million option for 2014 with a $3 million buyout, with the buyout price increasing to $4 million if Longoria was eligible for arbitration in 2011.

By November 2014, the Rays must decide whether to exercise an option calling for salaries of $11 million in 2015 and $11.5 million in 2016. His 2016 salary can rise to $14 million, depending on his finish in MVP voting."