Proposal to change extension method

[SlackJack]

is this going to happen or are we voting or something else?

This is going to happen.

[jmtrops]

is this going to happen or are we voting or something else?

[Rob]

Alright - here's some comparisons of current extensions vs the new rules as applied to the extending players of 9 teams in our league:

St Louis Blues:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
23	259.75	50	201.4	$4.4	$4.5	C Mathew Barzal, $0.5m (P-19/20)
132	91.9	118	111.1	$1.6	$2.0	C Tyson Jost, $0.5m (P-19/20)
35	157.8	58	130.4	$2.5	$2.8	D Brandon Montour, $0.5m (P-19/20)
111	89.1	15	186.8	$3.1	$3.3	D Thomas Chabot, $0.5m (P-19/20)
40	149.25	41	155	$2.0	$2.7	G Juuse Saros, $0.5m (P-19/20)
28	230.65	86	147.4	$5.0	$5.8	LW Jaden Schwartz, $3.5m (2019-2020)
26	234.9	23	250.2	$3.9	$4.4	LW Kyle Connor, $0.5m (P-19/20)
109	132.15	85	148.05	$0.9	$3.7	LW/RW Leo Komarov, $0.9m (2019-2020)
11	277.75	36	210.25	$6.3	$6.9	RW Jakub Voracek, $5.3m (2019-2020)
				$29.7	$36.1

For the Blues, the difference is really just Komarov - who will go to FA.  This is a desired effect.  Komarov belongs in the FA pool.




Colorado Avalanche:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
76	164.25	129	116.85	$0.9	$4.1	RW Alex Steen, FLEXED, $4.7m (2019-2020), $2.4m this year
113	110.3	54	195.4	$5.0	$4.9	C Cody Eakin, $0.9m (2019-2020)
117	104.3	95	140.7	$3.1	$3.5	C Scott Laughton, $0.9m (2019-2020)
96	133.8	70	162.7	$4.1	$4.1	C Colton Sissons, $1.4m (2019-2020)
82	149.2	106	125.9	$3.8	$3.7	C Chris Tierney, $0.9m (2019-2020)
114	124.35	118	123.7	$0.8	$3.1	RW Sam Bennett, $1m (2019-2020)
156	64.75	94	104.8	$2.5	$2.6	D Troy Stecher, $0.9m (2019-2020)
151	68.45	125	81.55	$1.7	$2.0	D Jordan Oesterle, $0.5m (2019-2020)
23	242	22	226.25	$4.3	$6.0	G Craig Anderson, $6.1m (2019-2020)
8	325	8	303.5	$6.0	$8.1	G Devan Dubnyk, $5.9m (2019-2020)
15	272.75	11	299.75	$5.8	$7.5	G Braden Holtby, $4.9m (2019-2020)
46	120	60	69	$1.5	$3.0	G Alex Stalock, $4m (2019-2020)
49	111.5	39	161.25	$2.5	$4.0	G Anders Nilsson, $1.9m (2019-2020)
21	250	58	188.45	$5.5	$6.3	LW James van Riemsdyk, $5.3m (2019-2020)
8	305.95	38	209.1	$7.3	$7.6	RW Dustin Brown, $2m (2019-2020)
				$54.8	$70.5

Colorado has a ton of extensions.  There's goalie increases across the board.  Goalies have always been undervalued for their production in our league.  That's a thing of the past.  Other than the goalies it's the wingers causing the increases.  Steen, Bennett, JVR, Dustin Brown and perhaps a producing goalie or two may fall to FA. 




Pittsburgh Penguins:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
14	204.85	7	213.35	$5.0	$5.3	D Dougie Hamilton, $2.5m (2019-2020)
39	152.85	13	191.55	$4.5	$3.5	D Ryan Pulock, $0.5m (P-19/20)
5	312.15	22	252.95	$8.0	$7.8	RW Phil Kessel, $5.6m (2019-2020)
31	223.35	9	301.5	$6.7	$7.5	RW Cam Atkinson, $2m (2019-2020)
124	112.35	221	35.15	$0.8	$2.0	RW Jesse Puljujarvi, $0.5m (P-19/20)
				$25.0	$26.9

Not many extensions and not much of a change overall.  Puljujarvi gets paid more accurately, while the Pens save nearly as much on Pulock's deal.




Philadelphia Flyers:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
103	127.75	107	124.05	$2.0	$2.2	C Nolan Patrick, $0.5m (P-19/20)
231	22.9	84	111.4	$2.7	$2.8	D Marcus Pettersson, $0.9m (2019-2020)
86	107.55	66	126.7	$2.1	$2.2	D Robert Hagg, $0.2m (P-19/20)
197	40.75	69	123.3	$2.0	$2.2	D Travis Sanheim, $0.5m (P-19/20)
133	102.15	68	168.65	$1.1	$4.2	RW Michael Frolik, $2.5m (2019-2020)
14	268.3	14	285.85	$6.0	$7.1	RW Alexander Radulov, $3.5m (2019-2020)
98	138.65	83	148.75	$0.9	$3.7	RW Joonas Donskoi, $0.9m (2019-2020)
				$16.8	$24.4

Increases all on the wingers, as intended.  Donskoi and Frolik should hit FA.




Chicago Blackhawks:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
51	199.05	17	299.25	$6.9	$7.5	C Jonathan Toews, $7m (2019-2020)
46	210	71	162.6	$5.3	$5.3	C Adam Henrique, $1.3m (2019-2020)
126	100.55	93	141.5	$3.1	$3.5	C Luke Glendening, $0.9m (2019-2020)
44	142.7	41	147.95	$3.5	$3.7	D Tyler Myers, $2.9m (2019-2020)
4	239.3	56	135	$5.2	$6.0	D PK Subban, $5.2m (2019-2020)
174	56.2	201	35.75	$0.8	$1.4	D Gustav Forsling, $0.5m (P-19/20)
47	141.65	26	170	$3.7	$4.3	D Ryan Ellis, $2m (2019-2020)
30	192.75	42	154.5	$3.3	$4.8	G Cam Ward, $1m (2019-2020)
34	165.5	25	218.75	$3.8	$5.5	G Carter Hutton, $2.8m (2019-2020)
181	73.25	113	123.95	$0.9	$3.1	LW Matt Martin, $0.9m (2019-2020)
118	126.45	153	96.35	$0.9	$3.2	LW Austin Watson, $0.9m (2019-2020)
129	96	73	159.85	$4.0	$4.0	C Vinnie Hinostroza, $0.9m (2019-2020)
120	115.9	85	148.6	$0.9	$3.7	RW Jake Virtanen, $0.8m (2019-2020)
36	220.65	11	296.25	$4.4	$5.2	RW Alexander Debrincat, $0.5m (P-19/20)
				$46.7	$61.2

Again, goalies and wingers absorbing most of the increase here.  Half a dozen players to FA from this roster.




Edmonton Oilers:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
n/a	0	231	29.65	$0.8	$0.8	RW Robby Fabbri, $0.9m (2019-2020)
34	228.15	78	153.3	$5.9	$5.7	C/RW Jordan Eberle, $4.3m (2019-2020)
144	70.45	122	82.6	$1.7	$2.1	D Danny Dekeyser, $2m (2019-2020)
57	73.25	44	146.25	$1.9	$3.7	G Louis Domingue, $3.3m (2019-2020)
130	109.75	51	194.6	$2.6	$4.9	RW/LW Brett Connolly, $1m (2019-2020)
118	118.8	76	155.4	$0.9	$3.9	RW Chris Wagner, $0.5m (2019-2020)
				$13.8	$21.1

Connolly and Wagner to FA - possibly Domingue.




Buffalo Sabres:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
153	67.05	100	99.65	$2.2	$2.5	D Jack Johnson, $0.9m (2019-2020)
51	137.45	38	149.35	$3.6	$3.7	D Alexander Edler, $2.4m (2019-2020)
76	161	128	116.3	$1.0	$4.0	LW Blake Comeau, $1m (2019-2020)
68	171.75	60	190.6	$4.8	$4.8	C Nick Foligno, $7m (2019-2020)
137	85	108	122.65	$2.0	$2.1	C JT Compher, $0.5m (P-19/20)
72	167.05	18	278	$5.8	$7.0	RW Josh Anderson, $0.9m (2019-2020)
				$19.4	$24.1

Comeau to FA - Anderson gets a more appropriate contract.




Washington Capitals:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
19	255.25	45	195.65	$3.9	$4.5	LW Yanni Gourde, $0.5m (P-19/20)
201	36.65	235	19.7	$0.8	$0.9	D Chris Wideman, $2.6m (2019-2020)
93	101.75	146	69	$2.6	$2.5	D Jonas Brodin, $1.5m (2019-2020)
138	72.15	60	128.75	$3.1	$3.2	D Michal Kempny, $0.9m (2019-2020)
96	140.45	230	36.15	$0.9	$2.5	LW Charles Hudon, $0.5m (P-19/20)
210	39.55	186	62.85	$0.8	$1.6	RW Ty Rattie, $0.5m (P-19/20)
				$12.1	$15.2

Same thing - 2 young wingers who could both land in FA.




New York Rangers:

17/18 Rank	17/18 FP	18/19 Rank	18/19 FP	Old Ext Value	New Ext Value	Player
133	90.2	48	207.65	$5.3	$5.2	C Andrew Shaw, $3.1m (2019-2020)
123	101.8	102	131.3	$2.8	$3.3	C Jeff Carter, $1.1m (2019-2020)
60	185.1	59	191.8	$4.8	$4.8	C Boone Jenner, $6m (2019-2020)
n/a		132	93.15	$0.9	$2.3	LW Zachary Sanford, $0.5m (2019-2020)
162	81.4	69	167.8	$1.1	$4.2	RW Alex Chiasson, $0.5m (2019-2020)
				$14.9	$19.8

Chiasson and Sanford to FA.


So the moral of the story is that Wingers and Goalies cost more and we are definitely fattening our FA pool.  The increase numbers may look daunting, but it's really not that much of a change since you're going to do with middle of the road wingers the same thing you've been doing with middle of the road centers - send them to FA and take your chances on gaining back similar talent at less money than you could have extended for.  In that sense the increase in pricing for some teams doesn't make them any worse than the pack - they just have to acquire cheap depth players in a different way now.  Extending them won't work. 

In this way I don't think making an exception to allow extensions under the old rules WITHOUT the matching salary rule is necessary.  It is an adjustment - no doubt.  But I don't believe it puts anyone at a disadvantage.   

[SlackJack]

If the theoretical range goes from $10m-$1m in the "best of 2 year" method and the ranges goes from, let's say, $9m-$2m in the "average of 3" method you'd have to add a 2nd tier where the multiplier is different.  Otherwise the range just shifts downwards and the top gets less expensive.  So a tier 1 player (however we define that) could be $26k while a tier 2 player could be $24k.  We could tinker to find the right combination to keep the price range relative to the current settings. 

Getting the right figure is the tough part - cause sampling some low ranking players isn't enough.  We'd need to rank them all to see how fat the range would be and how to adjust it correctly.

More complicated than I was aiming for but you obviously have lots of tools to work with. I think over-all the scheme is brilliant in how it corrects or homogenizes the current quirks or imbalances. Mind you I like the current flavour of DNHL. It's a bit weird and I love it that way.

With these vast structural changes it will be fun to see just how manic free agency is in a few years. I can see huge pressure on roster construction when everyone is actually getting paid what they are worth. Especially when pinned to only one good year.

But that works for me just fine

[Rob]

You can always bump the multiplier up to $26k (or whatever) if you need to shift up or down but I can look at the numbers at the bottom. Sekera at $2.1m or $500k is cheap either way.

If the theoretical range goes from $10m-$1m in the "best of 2 year" method and the ranges goes from, let's say, $9m-$2m in the "average of 3" method you'd have to add a 2nd tier where the multiplier is different.  Otherwise the range just shifts downwards and the top gets less expensive.  So a tier 1 player (however we define that) could be $26k while a tier 2 player could be $24k.  We could tinker to find the right combination to keep the price range relative to the current settings. 

Getting the right figure is the tough part - cause sampling some low ranking players isn't enough.  We'd need to rank them all to see how fat the range would be and how to adjust it correctly. 

[SlackJack]

You can always bump the multiplier up to $26k (or whatever) if you need to shift up or down but I can look at the numbers at the bottom. Sekera at $2.1m or $500k is cheap either way.

[Rob]

Sekera is the perfect example.  He's player number 676 - how many more like him to do add to the range, forcing the bottom of the range to go up and up and up?  There'd have to be fewer than 10 to keep the bottom of the range at $0.9m.

[Rob]

Posting some numbers here for consideration. I've done this by hand but I think the over-all picture is clear: the changes are not huge. I haven't quite figured out how to nicely align tables in BBC but if you pick through you will see that average fantasy points for the best of the last 3 years are in bold along with the extension value at $25k per point.

Putting players like Aho and Marner in this list isn't quite right because their rookie production drags them down and they're not up for extension anyways. They are rightly covered by prospect extension contracts which is a different thing all-together.

Over-all there is a downward trend for these top 25 players which I think will be more than made up in the middle so I don't see a watering down effect. (Even if there was you can always bump the multiplier to $26-$27k per point.) Anyways, my argument is precisely that players should not be extended based solely on their single best year of production and as I said, the changes are not huge.

• Nikita Kucherov   
  328.2   366.3   428.3   397.3   $9.90   $10.70
• Alex Ovechkin   
  337.25   395.3   423.25   409.27   $10.20   $10.60
• Nathan MacKinnon   
  199.15   358   401.35   379.67   $9.50   $10.00
• Patrick Kane  
  333.8   258.55   398.3   366.05   $9.20   $10.00
• Connor McDavid   
  355.65   390.9   384.75   387.82   $9.70   $9.80
• Leon Draisaitl   
  270.25   238.5   378.8   324.5   $8.10   $9.50
• John Tavares  
  263.7   299.15   371.85   335.5   $8.40   $9.30
• Steven Stamkos   
  79.35   305.05   362.8   333.92   $8.30   $9.10
• Sidney Crosby 
  364.35   311.9   360.65   362.5   $9.10   $9.00
• Johnny Gaudreau   
  198.35   276.15   349.85   313   $7.80   $8.70
• Andrei Vasilevskiy   
  249.25   397   348.25   372.62   $9.30   $9.90
• Brad Marchand   
  327.15   311.45   346.65   336.9   $8.20   $8.70
• Brayden Point  
  158.85   272.35   345.7   309.02   $7.70   $8.60
• Frederik Andersen   
  359.75   390.25   345   375   $9.40   $9.80
• Tyler Seguin   
  269.05   345.95   343.2   344.58   $8.60   $8.60
• Carey Price   
  336   194.75   340.75   338.37   $8.50   $8.50
• Connor Hellebuyck   
  251.5   406   338   372   $9.30   $10.20
• Jake Guentzel  
  139.5   205.05   325.4   265.22   $6.60   $8.10
• Sebastian Aho 
  208.65   255.85   325.4   290.6   $7.20   $8.10
• Mitchell Marner 
  210.45   234.65   325.3   279.97   $7.00   $8.10
• Gabriel Landeskog   
  148.8   269.3   320.65   295.2   $7.40   $8.00
• Aleksander Barkov   
  203.25   289.1   316.7   302.9   $7.60   $7.90
• Sergei Bobrovsky   
  383.75   362.75   315.75   373.25   $9.30   $9.10
• David Pastrnak   
  299.1   311.55   313.8   312.65   $7.80   $7.80

Cherry picking some cases now to really show where an average helps account for injury or different on-ice usage:

• Andrej Sekera   
  143.95   16.15   21.65   82.8   $2.10   $0.50
• Jason Zucker   
  230.25   273.1   189.45   251.65   $6.30   $6.80
• Kevin Shattenkirk   
  188.55   72.10   98.25   143.4   $3.60   $2.5
• Kris Letang   
  124.8   188.15   232.7   210.42   $5.30   $5.80
• Oscar Klefbom   
  167.4   101.2   106.15   136.78   $3.40   $2.70
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins   
  170.85   200.75   247.65   224.2   $5.60   $6.20
• Sven Baertschi   
  105.1   140.7   51.6   122.9   $3.10   $3.50
• Tomas Hertl   
  98.6   194.65   278.45   236.55   $5.90   $7.00
• Zach Parise   
  176   112.85   242.1   209.05   $5.2   $6.1

The top 25 see a fairly steep deflation, but my fear with your model is what the bottom looks like.  Your model would truncate the price range, but add more prices to the range.  In the new model I described, of the 675 contract prices that I compared with the old extension model, there's something like 10 contracts at the bottom of the range at $0.9m - I have a feeling that range would end at a higher number in your model - since more players wouldn't price out of the list with that 3rd season keeping them in the range.  It seems like a lot of work to quantify that, though - having to average out 3 years.  It's beyond my expertise to make a spreadsheet that automates it, especially when there's 3 data points for some, 2 for some and 1 for others. 

[SlackJack]

Posting some numbers here for consideration. I've done this by hand but I think the over-all picture is clear: the changes are not huge. I haven't quite figured out how to nicely align tables in BBC but if you pick through you will see that average fantasy points for the best of the last 3 years are in bold along with the extension value at $25k per point.

Putting players like Aho and Marner in this list isn't quite right because their rookie production drags them down and they're not up for extension anyways. They are rightly covered by prospect extension contracts which is a different thing all-together.

Over-all there is a downward trend for these top 25 players which I think will be more than made up in the middle so I don't see a watering down effect. (Even if there was you can always bump the multiplier to $26-$27k per point.) Anyways, my argument is precisely that players should not be extended based solely on their single best year of production and as I said, the changes are not huge.

• Nikita Kucherov   
  328.2   366.3   428.3   397.3   $9.90   $10.70
• Alex Ovechkin   
  337.25   395.3   423.25   409.27   $10.20   $10.60
• Nathan MacKinnon   
  199.15   358   401.35   379.67   $9.50   $10.00
• Patrick Kane  
  333.8   258.55   398.3   366.05   $9.20   $10.00
• Connor McDavid   
  355.65   390.9   384.75   387.82   $9.70   $9.80
• Leon Draisaitl   
  270.25   238.5   378.8   324.5   $8.10   $9.50
• John Tavares  
  263.7   299.15   371.85   335.5   $8.40   $9.30
• Steven Stamkos   
  79.35   305.05   362.8   333.92   $8.30   $9.10
• Sidney Crosby 
  364.35   311.9   360.65   362.5   $9.10   $9.00
• Johnny Gaudreau   
  198.35   276.15   349.85   313   $7.80   $8.70
• Andrei Vasilevskiy   
  249.25   397   348.25   372.62   $9.30   $9.90
• Brad Marchand   
  327.15   311.45   346.65   336.9   $8.20   $8.70
• Brayden Point  
  158.85   272.35   345.7   309.02   $7.70   $8.60
• Frederik Andersen   
  359.75   390.25   345   375   $9.40   $9.80
• Tyler Seguin   
  269.05   345.95   343.2   344.58   $8.60   $8.60
• Carey Price   
  336   194.75   340.75   338.37   $8.50   $8.50
• Connor Hellebuyck   
  251.5   406   338   372   $9.30   $10.20
• Jake Guentzel  
  139.5   205.05   325.4   265.22   $6.60   $8.10
• Sebastian Aho 
  208.65   255.85   325.4   290.6   $7.20   $8.10
• Mitchell Marner 
  210.45   234.65   325.3   279.97   $7.00   $8.10
• Gabriel Landeskog   
  148.8   269.3   320.65   295.2   $7.40   $8.00
• Aleksander Barkov   
  203.25   289.1   316.7   302.9   $7.60   $7.90
• Sergei Bobrovsky   
  383.75   362.75   315.75   373.25   $9.30   $9.10
• David Pastrnak   
  299.1   311.55   313.8   312.65   $7.80   $7.80

Cherry picking some cases now to really show where an average helps account for injury or different on-ice usage:

• Andrej Sekera   
  143.95   16.15   21.65   82.8   $2.10   $0.50
• Jason Zucker   
  230.25   273.1   189.45   251.65   $6.30   $6.80
• Kevin Shattenkirk   
  188.55   72.10   98.25   143.4   $3.60   $2.5
• Kris Letang   
  124.8   188.15   232.7   210.42   $5.30   $5.80
• Oscar Klefbom   
  167.4   101.2   106.15   136.78   $3.40   $2.70
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins   
  170.85   200.75   247.65   224.2   $5.60   $6.20
• Sven Baertschi   
  105.1   140.7   51.6   122.9   $3.10   $3.50
• Tomas Hertl   
  98.6   194.65   278.45   236.55   $5.90   $7.00
• Zach Parise   
  176   112.85   242.1   209.05   $5.2   $6.1

[jmtrops]

well I dont feel so bad now. I did the rest except for ARI, BOS, NYR, OTT
BUF- 9.7M
CHI- (-21.7)
DET- 17.2M
MON- 6.8M
NAS- (-4.7M)
VAN- 6.6M
WAS- 21.6M