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In 2011, the league will feature variable salary caps for all teams based on the three-year average (2008-2010) payroll (as of beginning of playing season) + $20m. The 2009 and 2010 seasons will be numbers from Franchise GM that we have whereas 2008 will be the actual payroll number for the 2008 teams.Use those cap numbers, movement between cap values would be based on the following formula.Cap ranking (CAPR) - 1st for highest cap, 30th for lowest from above listStandings (STAND) - 1st for WS champ, 9th for best team out of playoffs, 30th for worst team in MLBThe new cap ranking is then hooked up with the new 3-year average + $20m. This gives the weighting 25% to performance and 75% to current market status.At the end of each season, we will combine how the team did (STAND) with their existing cap ranking (CAPR) to determine the value that season will have on their future cap numbers (did they gain or lose cap?). Lets call that RETURN.RETURN[YEAR] = Max(0.8CAPR(YEAR),Min(1.2CAPR(YEAR),3*CAPR(YEAR) + STAND(YEAR))The CAPR and STAND values are both payroll numbers using the CAPR and STAND rankings on the actual MLB payroll averages (+$20m). To calculate a team's salary cap in any season, we take the simple average of their past three seasons return, skipping the most recent (so we can always forecast one extra into the future):CAP[2011] = AVERAGE(RETURN[2007] + RETURN[2008] + RETURN[2009])In the absence of Franchise GM for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the actual payroll and standings rankings are used. <div id=example>ExampleNew York Mets Franchise GM Standing 2007-2009: 10th, 10th, 30thfinish example...</div>
I dunno...I'm still seeing some pretty big drops from 2010 to 2011, $50 mil drop for the Yankees, $40 mil for the Mets and Phillies..am I reading that correctly?
FYI, I believe Ben meant that the Cap was the average of the Returns. I'll make something up in Excel today and post it.