Need help understanding pitching scoring

[h4cheng]

Personally, I am not advocating whole sale changes to the current system, but some tweaks (like what Jake has suggested) would make the scoring model more robust.

[Colby]

Why not start the discussion now? Gives us more time to iron out all the wrinkles.

Perhaps all we need to do for next year is some small adjustments.

[Mr.TradeKing]

Why not start the discussion now? Gives us more time to iron out all the wrinkles.

~MTK

[Canada8999]

Personally, I am not advocating whole sale changes to the current system, but some tweaks (like what Jake has suggested) would make the scoring model more robust.

I am in favor of reviewing (not necessarily changing) the current system for minor changes, such as removing either HR or GB since they are currently somewhat redundant.  I am not fond of the numerous posts aimed at slamming the current system, nor ignorance towards the proven facts on which the purpose of this great league was derived.

[rcankosy]

I am in favor of reviewing (not necessarily changing) the current system for minor changes, such as removing either HR or GB since they are currently somewhat redundant.  I am not fond of the numerous posts aimed at slamming the current system, nor ignorance towards the proven facts on which the purpose of this great league was derived.

I am in favor of putting this to a vote as I have repeatedly asked for on numerous occasions in the past.  Are we that afraid of what the outcome of that vote would be that we would prefer to argue about it endlessly?  I am not fond of the ignorance and intolerance shown by certain owners who refuse to believe that they could be wrong on this topic.  I am not fond of people who give more credit to random articles on Baseball Prospectus than guys like Bill James, Keith Law, and the Baseball Writers of America who actually have some respect for stats like ERA and WHIP. 

[VolsRaysBucs]

I am in favor of reviewing (not necessarily changing) the current system for minor changes, such as removing either HR or GB since they are currently somewhat redundant.  I am not fond of the numerous posts aimed at slamming the current system, nor ignorance towards the proven facts on which the purpose of this great league was derived.

To call dissenting opinion towards disputable data "ignorance" is a bit elitist, no?  Sorry you are not fond of the strong jockeying of opinion, but I for one think it is very healthy and telling of a great league.  People care.  You are entitled to your OPINION, everyone else is entitled to theirs.  To pass something that is widely disputed off as "fact" is egregious.  Again, people understand the scoring premise.  If the goal is in fact to as closely mirror real life as possible, then the most "valued" players in fantasy should, generally speaking, be the most valued in real life.  That is not the case in our league.  Whether or not one agrees with that school of thought, the school of thought exists.  I for one am not bashing anything, just expressing my opinion that the scoring should better value real life results, not processes. 

[Dan Wood]

Klaw
(1:11 PM)
Because a pitcher doesn't control whether a ball he allows into the field of play becomes a hit or an out, WHIP includes a component (the H) that includes noise from defense and luck. There are several other stats that try to get around that issue, like FIP, which estimates a luck- and defense-neutral ERA based on a pitcher's strikeout, walk, HBP, and home run rates.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/32103/mlb-insider-keith-law


Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
Looks like by the end of the night,Trevor Cahill will be 14-5, with the second-best ERA in the AL, No. 2 in WHIP -and No. 2 or No. 1 for CY?
25 Aug
in reply to @Buster_ESPN ↑
keithlaw
@keithlaw keithlaw
@
@Buster_ESPN Fangraphs has Cahill 31st among AL starters in WAR with a 4.07 FIP.
http://twitter.com/#!/keithlaw/status/22132994250

[Canada8999]

To call dissenting opinion towards disputable data "ignorance" is a bit elitist, no?  Sorry you are not fond of the strong jockeying of opinion, but I for one think it is very healthy and telling of a great league.  People care.  You are entitled to your OPINION, everyone else is entitled to theirs.  To pass something that is widely disputed off as "fact" is egregious.  Again, people understand the scoring premise.  If the goal is in fact to as closely mirror real life as possible, then the most "valued" players in fantasy should, generally speaking, be the most valued in real life.  That is not the case in our league.  Whether or not one agrees with that school of thought, the school of thought exists.  I for one am not bashing anything, just expressing my opinion that the scoring should better value real life results, not processes.

I apologize for coming off as elitist, I'm just frustrated that we have to keep going over this.  In general, healthy discussion is absolutely a good thing, but in my opinion we are re-inventing the wheel or trying to take steps backwards. 

I will again dig up a number of sites that support my argument, and again invite anyone who disagrees to provide links to articles with counter arguments.  Please respect the fact that myself and those who are agreeing with me are working from published research, and provide more than just your opinions as counter arguments.

[dougy12]

I would be happy to put this discussion to a vote. I side with VolsRaysBucs. The first post that started this discussion speaks clear to why something, even minor, needs to be changed. This is my first yr being active in this league and I feel a change might be needed.

 

[Canada8999]

A high-level description and some history:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_independent_pitching_statistics

The original article:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

A great overview, with some quotes I'll put at the bottom:
http://sabr.org/drupal/node/3072

Fangraphs and Hardball Times are big into these:
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batted-balls-and-dips/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-dips1/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-batted-balls-and-dips/

Ron Schandler (founder of Baseball HQ) is pretty famous for his work, here is one article that is in the public domain:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/fantasy/shandler/2008-09-16-safety-in-numbers_N.htm

Generic article from ESPN discussing sabermetrics:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=5050780

From the SABR link:

McCracken posted his query on this subject to the Usenet group in 1999 and fourteen months later, in January 2001, found a receptive audience for his article “Pitchers and Defense: How Much Control Do Hurlers Have?” which was posted online at Baseball Prospectus.15 Shortly thereafter, Rob Neyer of ESPN briefly discussed it.16 According to McCracken, “All hell broke loose,” as he received 1,700 e-mails in two days,17 from sabermetricians who took varying degrees of exception to McCracken’s assertion that “there is little if any difference among major league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls in play.”18 Craig R. Wright and Bill James wrote in to Neyer with reservations about McCracken’s theory,19 beginning the long and ongoing discussion within the sabermetric community over whether pitchers have control over hits on balls in play and, if they do, how much. James changed his mind after further research.

From the 2001 edition of The New Bill James Historical Abstract:

1. Like most things, McCracken’s argument can be taken too literally. A pitcher does have some input into the hits/innings ratio behind him, other than that which is reflected in the home run and strikeout column.
2. With that qualification, I am quite certain that McCracken is correct.
3. This knowledge is significant, very useful.
4. I feel stupid for not having realized it 30 years ago.20

I think that should be a good start ...