I am working on the future salary caps right now. It appears that the first time we will see average salary caps increase from one year to the next is in 2016. The average caps are due to be $101.7m in 2015 and then increase to $101.9m in 2016. These figures aren't 100% certain as they will depend on 2013 and 2014 MLB payrolls, respectively.
Average Caps per Year
2009 = $108.3m
2010 = $108.7m
2011 = $105.8m
2012 = $104.2m
2013 = $102.9m
2014 = $102.5m
2015 = $101.7m
2016 = $101.9m
Why have the caps been going down each year? Well, the caps were inflated to begin with... anyone who knows this league's history knows that the Cubs and Mets had $200m caps and the Yankees had $250m. The Red Sox, Tigers, and Angels all had $150m caps. Expected caps would take the distribution of current baseball payrolls which weren't quite like those numbers and this is how some teams, such as the Yankees despite winning, have regressed in payroll. Essentially, we are just catching up to reality.
Consequently, 2016 is the first year the Yankees are expected to see an increase since 2013 (which is certain at $222m, $2.5m more than 2012). While I am looking at the numbers, which teams have increased their cap the most and which teams suffered? From 2009 to 2016 (projected at current standings/MLB-pay), the World Series winning A's have increased their cap from $70m to $115m. The Nationals are in 3rd, Marlins in 3rd (their cap was really low), Pirates in 4th, and Dodgers in 5th (dominating team past three years). The Cubs, Mets, Giants, Tigers, and Angels have all taken the biggest hits to their caps.
What about what is set in stone such as 2014?
:OAK: 38.6% increase
:PHI: 28.4%
:MIA-MLB: 21.0%
:TOR: 15.0%
:LAD: 14.4%
:MIL: 14.4%
:PIT: 11.7%
Who has been the worst?
:CHC: 36.0% decrease
:NYM: 27.3%
:SF: 26.4%
:DET: 20.0%
:LAA: 18.0%
:HOU: 16.8%
:NYY: 15.4%
:BOS: 15.0%
A lot of the drops have been due to regression, but the CUbs, Mets, Giants, Tigers, and Angels haven't been good teams. The Astros have seemingly surpassed expectations in recent years, but their cap in 2009 was $125m. They had a cap of $100m in 2010, so they have actually made progress.
With all of that said, how have caps changed from 2010 to 2014 - the only time of certainty with our current salary cap structure?
:OAK: 38.6% increase
:MIA-MLB: 21.0%
:TEX: 17.9%
:MIL: 14.4%
:LAD: 14.4%
:PIT: 11.7%
Biggest drops...
:NYM: -27.3%
:SEA: -22.4%
:DET: -20.0%
:PHI: -19.8%
:BAL: -19.4%
:LAA: -18.0%
:NYY: -15.4%
:CHW: -15.2%
:CHC: -14.7%
Halloween