Ranking The Divisions

[Needle Juice]

Dan touched on something in describing the value of players in the Gallardo deal that I want to run by you guys. 

Should we continue to allow free agent rights to be owned by their teams AFTER the season is over?  For example, in real life the Rangers lost the rights to Cliff Lee the second that the World Series ended.  In our league, we control their rights until December 15th.  Colby explained to me that this works like a "sign and trade", but those kind of deals only happen in basketball and never in baseball.  I'm not crazy the current rule, because it allows teams to play out the season with their free agents and never have to make the painful real life choice of whether or not to trade them for something before the trade deadline.

I disagree with this.  We do have to make a choice to trade them before the deadline or not.  Everyone knows that a team with a pending free agent is not in a good negotiating position when they are in a trade or RFA situation, therefore value offered is lower (as seen in this trade and documented by several).  If the Brewers had traded Gallardo at the deadline, the value would have been greater than the return that he got now.  Especially from a contender. 

It is a choice of higher value before the deadline or trading from a bad negotitating position.

[rcankosy]

You might be right that the value of an impending FA goes down dramatically after the season, but that does not negate the fact that the Rangers would *never* do a "sign and trade" with Cliff Lee to the Yankees in the manner that Gallardo was traded from the Brewers to the Indians.  If we think that this way is more fun and we're willing to look past realism, so be it, but I wanted everyone to think about it.

[kungfuwig]

I like this post a lot, and I do hope to compete in 2012.

[Canada8999]

With all the discussion, I'll chime in on why I made this deal.  Gallardo is a very good SP, but I have a personal objection to giving out big-money / long-term contracts to any pitchers but the best of the best (see Haren, Lee).  He's close, but given my other options to re-sign he wasn't going to make the cut.

Personally I have been very high on LaPorta for a long time, and ~500 MLB at bats with a solid BB/K, decent ISO and terrible BABIP are not enough to change my mind - I still expect him to be an impact bat at CI.  Cabrera is still very young (24) and was a top 20 MI in 2009 - any uptick in his power output and he is a very solid starter at MI.

As some have pointed out, the range of opinions on this trade is an indicator that our league has not really yet defined how the market should value expiring contracts.  The seller has the option to RFA big name expiring's and receive up to 2 first round picks (the only way to add picks), which can be stashed on the EDR (saving roster and cap space) - this is in addition to the option of re-signing the player (in which case the buyer has no opportunity to acquire the player).  The buyer gets the player at a known cost and does not need to win an FA bidding war, does not need to give up the compensation picks, and can go into FA with more certainty (not to be underestimated) - this is in addition to preventing the seller from re-signing or trading the player to another team.

[h4cheng]

Here is how I evaluate this deal:

Suppose CLE is willing to spend 15M on Gallardo during FA bidding. Then, in exchange for the 3M and a first round pick, he gave up the rights to Laporta and Cabrera. If you think Laporta, Cabrera is worth 3M + 1st rounder, then CLE came out ahead.

[Dan Wood]

I do have to agree with Roy to a certain extent on the point that he made. Granted MLB doesn't have RFA's, but I think in this league it is needed and a great addition. I think what Roy is getting at, and what I agree with, is making the time between the end of the season and the amount of time we can hold onto our pending FAs less. In MLB, teams have a window of opportunity where they can negotiate with their pending FAs, before they are made available to other teams to bid on. I think a case can be made to shorten what we currently have in place to more resemble MLB. I also think any further discussion involving this should be moved to its own post.

And as far as the trade goes, I think I have chimed in on this. Ben was in a tough spot and he got a very good return for someone he could have lost completely. LaPorta does have upside, as does Cabrera. Although I will say this, the one really good season that Cabrera had his BABIP was .360. The question was posed from Chad if this makes him the favorite in the Central. If there is a lesson we can learn from the FGM Giants last year, is that in this league, it is difficult to win when a majority of your points come from pitching. Good starters and great starters have a difference of about 20(50-70) points a week. Generally that difference will not win you a week. Where as a really good power hitter, what LaPorta's pedigree was/is, can score a lot more than that. So, I don't think this was a slam dunk for Cleveland as some have pointed out, but if LaPorta doesn't pan out, then Ben is getting the short end of the deal, and Chad made a very good trade. I just don't think any of us can answer that until a few months into the season. Funny that Colby brought up the CC trade, because this is very similar to what was said when that deal happened, that the success of the trade relies on LaPorta's ability to become a middle of the order bat.

As I said earlier, I still think the Twins come out on top at this juncture because of the known production that he will get, where as two of the big bats on Cleveland are question marks for various reasons. The AL Central is very close, the top 3 teams are but an elevator fart away from each other. Going into free agency, and the rest of the trading season, it will be interesting to see how these teams fill their needs. For the most part, every division is close right now, because we don't have fully formed teams, and guys with expired contracts are still sitting on rosters waiting to be resigned, dealt, or RFA'd. So those player's fate is still TBD. As we move along we will get a clearer picture of what each team's strengths and weaknesses are.

[Colby]

I would still rank the Brewers 1st in the NL Central with a lineup that has Pujols, Braun, and Utley (let alone the other guys).  Their rotation has Haren, Sanchez, and Masterson.  They have RFA tags on Danks and Wigginton and $9.5m in cap space to either sign them or some other guys.

[bravesfan4]

I will put Milwaukee in the mix. I think there the 3rd best team in the division. However I now say the Phils will win the division and the Braves will fall short. Phils become clear front-runners in the East.

[Colby]

I will put Milwaukee in the mix. I think there the 3rd best team in the division. However I now say the Phils will win the division and the Braves will fall short. Phils become clear front-runners in the East.

Brewers are in the Central.

[Dan Wood]

Corey was just adding to what he had said earlier about the NL east. It  was two statements in one post