Off-season Rule Discussion

[SlackJack]

I think we should discuss the +/- stat. It was the difference in this years Stanley Cup Final. Tony was +4 I believe and Slack was -16. Made the difference in the long run.

Hahaha....I'd say the difference was Steve Mason! But yeah, +/- is probably the worst stat in fantasy hockey.

[nelly85]

 
I agree we should eliminate this as well.

[Tyler]

I'm fine with no +/-, pretty useless stat when a guy like Ovie scores 50+ and is a -30 lol

[SlackJack]

I've always thought that the way we draw our draft lottery is a little cumbersome and recently I came across a fairly elegant alternative. In a nutshell, if the teams at the bottom of our fantasy standings correspond with teams at the bottom of the NHL then we can use the NHL's actual lottery draw to determine our own draft order.

It would be exciting for everyone to be able to watch the actual NHL lottery draw and know immediately who is picking 1st over-all!

The methodology for the list I compiled is simple and straight forward. The team ranked last in BY is assigned the odds for the last two teams in the NHL. Continue down the list in the same manner.The odds are very similar for 17th through 12th, with increased odds for the last place finish and none for 11th and up.

Consider our current odds and compare against the hybrid list I have posted below.

BY LOTTERY ODDS
RANK   CHANCE
18th    26.00%
17th    20.00%
16th   15.00%
15th   11.00%
14th   8.00%
13th    6.00%
12th    5.00%
11th    4.00%
10th    3.00%
9th      2.00%
8th through 1st   0%

NHL LOTTERY ODDS
RANK   CHANCE   
30th    20.00%   Buffalo
29th    13.50%   Arizona   
28th    11.50%   Edmonton   
27th    9.50%   Toronto   
26th    8.50%   Carolina   
25th    7.50%   New Jersey   
24th    6.50%   Philadelphia   
23rd    6.00%   Columbus   
22nd    5.00%   San Jose   
21st    3.50%   Colorado   
20th    3.00%   Florida    
19th    2.50%   Dallas   
18th    2.00%   Los Angeles   
17th    1.00%   Boston    
16th through 1st   0%

HYBRID LOTTERY ODDS
RANK   CHANCE
18th    33.50% (30th & 29th so for 2015 - Buffalo & Arizona)
17th    21.00% (28th & 27th - Edmonton & Toronto)
16th   16.00% (26th & 25th - Carolina & New Jersey etc.)
15th   12.50% (24th & 23rd)
14th   8.50% (22nd & 21st)
13th    5.50% (20th & 19th)
12th    3.00% (18th & 17th)
11th through 1st   0%

So this year Montreal finished in 17th place and would have had both Edmonton and Toronto's odds combined....and would have won 1st pick.

As televised.

[Drew]

HYBRID LOTTERY ODDS
RANK   CHANCE
18th    33.50% (30th & 29th so for 2015 - Buffalo & Arizona)
17th    21.00% (28th & 27th - Edmonton & Toronto)
16th   16.00% (26th & 25th - Carolina & New Jersey etc.)
15th   12.50% (24th & 23rd)
14th   8.50% (22nd & 21st)
13th    5.50% (20th & 19th)
12th    3.00% (18th & 17th)
11th through 1st   0%

So this year Montreal finished in 17th place and would have had both Edmonton and Toronto's odds combined....and would have won 1st pick.

As televised.

I don't mind this except for a couple things

1) 11th to 9th get no chance. They didn't make our playoffs and get like the real NHL should have a chance at winning the lottery.

2) There is only one thing in this league that is NHL dependent and therefore fixed as of an announcement which is the cap. This is great for us as it keeps the cap numbers in the right spots and gives teams more realistic cap hits for players. Other things that kind of depend on NHL are player caps (half required) and team names but other than that I can't name what else in the league follows so closely to a tee. I don't want the NHL to control us haha.

3) Probably too high of odds for the last place finisher which would promote tanking.

Positives:
1) I like the excitement maybe that is something we could try and add? Like have everyone logged into a server or something like that to watch me randomize the number. Then we can have discussion and such afterwards about draft, possible trades and get that real GM atmosphere going.

2) The odds. Our odds are put the way they are because we have less teams, maybe this is something we have to look at.

[SlackJack]

I don't mind this except for a couple things

1) 11th to 9th get no chance. They didn't make our playoffs and get like the real NHL should have a chance at winning the lottery.

2) There is only one thing in this league that is NHL dependent and therefore fixed as of an announcement which is the cap. This is great for us as it keeps the cap numbers in the right spots and gives teams more realistic cap hits for players. Other things that kind of depend on NHL are player caps (half required) and team names but other than that I can't name what else in the league follows so closely to a tee. I don't want the NHL to control us haha.

3) Probably too high of odds for the last place finisher which would promote tanking.

Positives:
1) I like the excitement maybe that is something we could try and add? Like have everyone logged into a server or something like that to watch me randomize the number. Then we can have discussion and such afterwards about draft, possible trades and get that real GM atmosphere going.

2) The odds. Our odds are put the way they are because we have less teams, maybe this is something we have to look at.

Whether the bottom ranked team has a 26% chance or a 33% chance to get the first over-all pick doesn't really matter. As long as they have a better chance than everyone else without it being guaranteed. Of course if we don't want to follow the NHL too closely we can do whatever we want, including scrapping the draft altogether. I only say this to illustrate that if we really want to get rid of tanking we can make that choice any time.

I think the draft is fun though and personally don't have a problem with tanking. As I have said before, the league is better off with a GM that actively steers towards a top pick rather than someone who is not steering at all.

As far as addressing the odds for teams 11th through 9th. Realistically they are negligible and for the sake of simplicity could be dropped without regard. But if the only objections to this approach are in the weighting then just juggle the assigned lotto-slots to suit. If you consider the list below you will see that it is almost exactly the same as Back Yard's and that it is easily changed to accommodate more teams or different odds however you want.

RANK     CHANCE
18th    (30th & 23rd) 26%
17th    (29th & 24th) 20%
16th    (28th & 21st) 15%
15th    (27th & 19th) 12%
14th    (26th) 8.5%
13th    (25th) 7.5%
12th    (22nd) 5%
11th    (20th) 3%
10th    (18th) 2%
9th      (17th) 1%

So that settles issues #1 & #3.

Regarding #2 about dependency on the NHL, well in this case I prefer it. If the choice is between a random number generator in a chat room or TSN, then why not go with the sports channel? What better way to generate excitement than by pinning our draw to the NHL's hype machine. Of course we'd all be online for chat at the same time anyway!