This trade has been characterized as a Doughty for Backes swap, and also as giving up a LOT for Schneider. Having recently traded away both Montadore and Kostitsyn I found myself alarmed at the return they were netting. Further reflection had me thinking of the recent trade by Thunderblade for Niemi and the near universal agreement that a dear price must be paid for goalies. I have also considered the conversation regarding Drew's trade for Steve Mason and believe that this agreement should bear equal if not greater scrutinty. I say this first beacuse the League Comissioner has asked for more information, second because Bridgestone is new to the league, and third because of the critical importance given to Goalies.

I'll be the first person to admit that trades are speculative and rooted in the subjective as much as by the numbers. A players age, draft position, ice-time, power-play time, team, linemates, tendency toward injury, contract status, cap hit and actual production are all on the table right beside intangibles of personal preference. I believe it is every GM's right to always try to get the better end of every deal but not at the expense of league integrity. I believe this is a case where that integrity is indeed threatened and ask the trade committee to consider the following.

I've tallied the accumulated points for 11-12/10-11 and included PPG for a better reflection of productivity. Comparing the average PPG from the last two seasons back against each season separately gives a good idea of how consistent that productivity has been. Using only two seasons is a small sample size but it's what we use to rank our extensions and therefore should serve equally well to inform a trade.

Doughty for Backes - On it's own I'd imagine this trade would go through. I also believe that there would be universal agreement that Norrya wins the deal.

D - Drew Doughty, $6.9m (2013-14)
Points 105/120  PPG 1.36/1.57  AVG.PPG 1.47
Ranked 37th/24th  - Doughty is well known for his performance in 09-10 but has produced at a level that should see him paid $4.2m per year. The upside is there but if he doesn't elevate his game significantly he will continue to get over-paid by $2.7m for the next two seasons.

C,RW - David Backes, $6.1m (2012-13)
Points 166/170 PPG 2.02/2.08  AVG.PPG 2.05
Ranked 10th/6th - Backes is remarkably consistent. Looking back over the past four seasons he's only missed three games and his point production is exactly where it should be to warrant a $6.1m price tag. Unless he ranks better than 10th (which is entirely possible) then his minimum extension value will be the same as his current contract.

Montadore and S.Kostitsyn for A.Stewart and Butler - Kostitsyn probably has the greatest skill but I'd call this another win for Norrya simply for the cap savings. Stewart and Butler come in at half the price with similar numbers and better combined upside.

D - Steve Montador, $1.5m (2012-13)
Points 45/92  PPG .86/1.26  AVG.PPG 1.06
Undrafted, Age 32, Career high 26 points, 6th Defence on Chicago's depth Chart.

LW - Sergei Kostitsyn, $2.0m (2013-14)
Points 91/102  PPG 1.21/1.32  AVG.PPG 1.27
Draft position 7/200, Age 25, Career high 50 points, 2nd Ranked LW for Nashville.

RW - Anthony Stewart, $1.0m (2012-13)
Points 54/93  PPG .7/1.16  AVG.PPG .93
Draft Position 1/25th, Age 27, Career high 39 points, 2nd Ranked RW for Carolina.

RW - RW - Bobby Butler, $0.7m (2013-14)
Points 46/48  PPG .82/1.32  AVG.PPG 1.07
Undrafted, Age 25, Career high 21 points, 2nd Ranked RW for Ottawa.

Chris Stewart for JS Giguere - Stewart performing at his average (100 points) is paid appropriately so it's a bonus of he regains form. That said, there is no downside to owning Giguere who's value is decent as a trade chip and would skyrocket given an injury to Varlomov. I'm inclined to call this a push but I'll give the win to Bridgestone.

RW - Chris Stewart, $2.5m (2013-14)
Points 83/118  PPG 1.05/1.9  AVG.PPG 1.48
Here's a quote about Chris Stewart: "So that’s 86 games, 32 points, two healthy scratches and a three-game suspension. Even Jonathan Cheechoo declined slower than that." Ouch. Stewart is an RFA next season so I think his best value is if he's moved to another team.

G - Jean-Sebastien Giguere, $3.0m (2012-13)
Points 149/108  PPG 4.66/3.25  AVG.PPG 3.96
Age 35, Under contract with Colorado through 2012-13.

A LOT for Corey Schneider - Given the preeminent weighting of the goaltender position in our league I don't think it's reasonable to suggest that Schneider is worth less than several 1st Round picks. This is not a win. It's not a steal. It's unacceptable.

1st Round Pick

G - Cory Schneider, $2.0m (2013-14)
Points 201/148  PPG 6.1/5.91  AVG.PPG 6
Corey Schneider is nothing less than the hottest upcoming Goalie in the game. His performance is consistent and on par with the elites. He will be a starter soon, likely next season. Having him under contract at $2.0m for two seasons would be remarkable good fortune.

Again, I think it's important to compare this deal to the recent trade for Antti Niemi. If that trade meets the standard for a starting goalie then this one does not. Also, given that the price for Steve Mason was Patrick Elias and that there was dispute that Elias wasn't compensation enough, it would be reasonable to argue that Giguere is worth a 1st on his own.

Obviously this deal can be broken down in different ways and I would encourage the principals to do so. At the end of the day the fact will remain that Norrya receives better players on better contracts. By the numbers Bridgestone would get four players averaging 1.32 PPG while Norrya gets five at 2.8 PPG. Back Schneider out of the average and it's still 2 PPG for Norrya.

I don't have a vested interest in this. I'm not on the trade committee. But I do want to see this league move forward with integrity. I'm impressed by the collective body of hockey knowledge here that I've stumbled upon and want to remain proud of my association. It is therefore that I say without malice or ill will that I do not think this trade should proceed.

 

 

Got it.

 

Fair deal.