Need help understanding pitching scoring

[VolsRaysBucs]

This is consistent with the premise of how Colby defined the league, in that scoring will only reflect what an individual player can control.  A pitcher has some effect on whether the ball is his in the air or on the ground, but after that he has no control with what the defense does.  Hitters do have control, and thus whether it becomes a hit or an out does matter for their scoring.  There are some studies out there on hard hit balls using things like PitchF/X, but we obviously don't have access to use that with Fantrax.

I guess I'm missing why this is such a huge issue, even if it were an inconsistency (as opposed to intentional, which it is).

To an extent I agree here, but how does a pitcher control what happens after it's pitched any more than a batter control after it's hit?  Under your argument, aren't both contingent upon the quality of the defense?  My hope was to have it better emulate real life performance a bit better.  Lazy cans of corn and 250 ft fly balls are much better than frozen rope ground balls into the corner or base hits up the middle with runners on base, no metrics can dispute that I don't think.  If nothing else, I'd like to see possibly a comprehensive analysis of the pitching outcomes at season's end and compare them to our scoring to see if anything can/should be done.  I'd volunteer to crunch numbers.

[h4cheng]

Hitters do have control, and thus whether it becomes a hit or an out does matter for their scoring. 

Hitters do not have control over whether they get a hit or not, unless it's a homerun.

[rcankosy]

Guys,

I have to respectfully say that I think we've taken some good statistical tools and over-applied them.  Yes, a great defense can help out a pitcher.  Yes, a pitcher sometimes has no control over some cheap hits or some great defensive plays.  But, to say that all flyball hits other than HRs are beyond a pitcher's control sounds a bit silly to me.  So a pitcher has control over a HR, but not over a hard hit double against the wall or a triple in the corner?  Price was not unlucky that day.  He got rocked.  Neimann was not lucky.  It was one of his best pitched games of the year.  Personally, I don't care whether we change the scoring system or not, but to quote Michael Corleone from the Godfather:  "Don't insult my intelligence to claim that this scoring system is accurate."   

[rcankosy]

If we are to believe Howie's comment, the only difference between all hitters other than the amount of home runs they hit is just luck.  Does anybody here really believe that?  Tell that to Pete Rose, Wade Boogs, Rod Carew, and Tony Gwynn.  God, they were damn lucky ball players!

[h4cheng]

If we are to believe Howie's comment, the only difference between all hitters other than the amount of home runs they hit is just luck.  Does anybody here really believe that?  Tell that to Pete Rose, Wade Boogs, Rod Carew, and Tony Gwynn.  God, they were damn lucky ball players!

That's not what I meant.

Hitters do not control whether they can get a hit or not unless they hit a home run. Otherwise, there is always a chance that someone can make a diving catch/nice defensive play.  Hitters have no control over whether they get a hit or not; they do have control over how many groundballs/line drives/fly balls/pop ups they hit. The more line drives that are hit, the greater the chance the hitter will end up with more hits.

My point is that if we are going to pitchers using defense independent statistics then the same should apply to the hitters.
My other point is that if we are going to award pitchers got allowing GB, then they should be penalized for allowing line drives.

[Canada8999]

It is a fact that hitters have control on BABIP and pitchers do not (with the small exception of knuckle-ballers).  Hitters have control over HR/FB and pitchers do not.  These are counterintuitive to what was a long-standing perception in baseball and is still held by those not familiar with the research, but its research that has been out for a while now and has become widely accepted, including by MLB executives.

[Canada8999]

Hitters do not control whether they can get a hit or not unless they hit a home run. Otherwise, there is always a chance that someone can make a diving catch/nice defensive play.  Hitters have no control over whether they get a hit or not; they do have control over how many groundballs/line drives/fly balls/pop ups they hit. The more line drives that are hit, the greater the chance the hitter will end up with more hits.

This is not true, hitters have control over how hard a ball is hit, while pitchers do not.

[h4cheng]

This is not true, hitters have control over how hard a ball is hit, while pitchers do not.

Batters have control in terms of LD/GB%, they can't control whether they get a hit in a given AB. Once the ball leaves the bat, the hitter is powerless, much like pitchers.

All I am saying is, if a batter is award for hitting a grounder between 2nd and 3rd and goes through to the outfield , then a pitcher should not be awarded for allowing that ground ball.
I realize that LB can't be tracked. That's why I proposed we include either outs or hits allowed in the pitchers scoring system to act as proxy for LB (in the case of hits) or as proxyfor prevention of LB (in the case of outs).

Is the system broken? No. Can it be tweaked so it's more realistic/fair? Yes.

[Canada8999]

Batters have control in terms of LD/GB%, they can't control whether they get a hit in a given AB. Once the ball leaves the bat, the hitter is powerless, much like pitchers.

The 2nd statement is partially true, but the first is not.  The key distinction is what I wrote, research shows hitters can control how hard the ball is hit while pitchers cannot, and this gives hitters influence on whether a GB/LD/FB is a hit or not.  Once it leaves their bat they have less effect (but they've already influenced more than a pitter by controlling how hard it was hit), but they still have some control such as speedsters have better BABIP on GB than slow guys do.

[bravesfan4]

His comparison is an example of one pitcher who got lucky with poor peripheral stats and one who got unlucky with better peripherals ... this is a pretty common argument against things like FIP, tERA, xFIP, etc., but there's just so much data out there on luck and pitching that you can't ignore it.  Again, this is part of the premise of the league...

no not lucky. So example, just because Jeff Nieman doesnt strike guys out he had an ineffictive start? There is nothing lucky about getting guys to pop up or hit weak ground balls. There needs to be somethiyng added.... Ben i agree it should not happen till the end of the year, no change should be effective during a season. I have pitchers on my team who get rocked but put up good points. And I honestly think its not right.