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Title: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: rcankosy on June 15, 2011, 01:40:19 PM
Jeremy (New Orleans)


Keith, my law school does a mock MLB salary arbitration competition judged by agents, gms and other knowledgeable baseball personnel. When arguing a case, in your opinion, how much emphasis should be put on stats like WAR, UZR ect, and what is the best way to respond to opposing arguments using the same stats
Klaw
  (1:12 PM)


If someone quotes WAR or UZR, remind them that the goal is to win games, and therefore pitcher wins are the most important stat of all.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Colby on June 15, 2011, 01:52:41 PM
Pitchers receive more wins if the offense on their team is better.  This makes it inappropriate to use in a fantasy league where our fantasy offense is different than the pitcher's real-life offense.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: bravesfan4 on June 15, 2011, 01:56:38 PM
The perfect thing to use in Quality Starts. Those are not effected by the teams offensive performance.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: rcankosy on June 15, 2011, 02:03:03 PM
Pitchers receive more wins if the offense on their team is better.  This makes it inappropriate to use in a fantasy league where our fantasy offense is different than the pitcher's real-life offense.

NL pitchers get more Ks and give up fewer HRs, because they generally face weaker lineups plus they face pitchers rather than DHs. 
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Colby on June 15, 2011, 02:19:54 PM
NL pitchers get more Ks and give up fewer HRs, because they generally face weaker lineups plus they face pitchers rather than DHs.

Sure... which is why you may go after an NL pitcher over a similar talented AL pitcher in any fantasy league.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Dan Wood on June 15, 2011, 04:41:34 PM
I think Keith was being sarcastic. He has been on record many times discussing how wins are NOT the most important, nay controllable, stat of a pitcher. Hence the Zack Grienke and Felix Hernandez over CC for Cy Young argument two years in a row.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Dan Wood on June 15, 2011, 04:43:20 PM
With QS, I don't think 3 ERs in 6 Innings is quality. Over a season that's a 4.50 ERA... kind of doo doo. Just my opinion.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Colby on June 15, 2011, 04:53:53 PM
With QS, I don't think 3 ERs in 6 Innings is quality. Over a season that's a 4.50 ERA... kind of doo doo. Just my opinion.

The worst SP with all QS would have a 4.50 ERA.  You have to view 4.50 ERA as the absolute worst for a pitcher with all QS whereas most cases their ERA would be very low.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Dan Wood on June 15, 2011, 05:10:59 PM
True, but at the same time you can argue that point all you want, the fact remains you have a 4.50 ERA over 6 innings, you are in the QS club. I think it is too broad of a stat to differentiate great-good-mediocre-poor starters.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: bravesfan4 on June 15, 2011, 05:16:07 PM
QS has really helped seperate good from average pitchers in New Era. The scoring system is almost identical to fgm. except the bonus of 5 points for a hold or save and a 15 point bonus for QS. The hitters are still more valuable than pitchers, but the elite pitchers are worth more than the average hitter. And it seperates them from the average sp's. Its worked out great.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: rcankosy on June 15, 2011, 05:29:22 PM
QS has really helped seperate good from average pitchers in New Era. The scoring system is almost identical to fgm. except the bonus of 5 points for a hold or save and a 15 point bonus for QS. The hitters are still more valuable than pitchers, but the elite pitchers are worth more than the average hitter. And it seperates them from the average sp's. Its worked out great.

I agree that the QS stat has value.  At the very least, it rewards pitchers who don't get blown up.  Innings alone in the new scoring system won't take this type of effectiveness into account.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Dan Wood on June 15, 2011, 05:50:33 PM
I don't think innings is a good stat to begin with. Especially if you have 11 starting pitchers. Throw enough feces against the wall and some of it is bound to stick.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Colby on June 15, 2011, 08:29:05 PM
I don't think innings is a good stat to begin with. Especially if you have 11 starting pitchers. Throw enough feces against the wall and some of it is bound to stick.

Innings = outs

Record outs for your team and you are doing your job.  It is a positive enforcing stat to allow other stats to bring it down similar to Bill James' game score.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Dan Wood on June 15, 2011, 08:45:24 PM
Innings = outs

Record outs for your team and you are doing your job.  It is a positive enforcing stat to allow other stats to bring it down similar to Bill James' game score.


Ok, whats better - 5 guys that make 21 outs or 10 guys that make 15 outs?
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Dan Wood on June 15, 2011, 08:49:15 PM
Plus if your team score a butt load of runs, the manager will save the bullpen if you are pitching better than the other guy. I play in a league that has innings as a category and it is absolutely inane. It becomes a war of attrition. It's quantity over quality. Not to mention, RPs will become even less valuable.
Title: Re: ESPN's Keith Law Speaks Out on Pitching Stats
Post by: Brewers GM on June 15, 2011, 09:34:01 PM
Plus if your team score a butt load of runs, the manager will save the bullpen if you are pitching better than the other guy. I play in a league that has innings as a category and it is absolutely inane. It becomes a war of attrition. It's quantity over quality. Not to mention, RPs will become even less valuable.

 :iatp: