Author Topic: RC - Runs Created  (Read 1388 times)

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Offline Colby

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RC - Runs Created
« on: December 11, 2009, 05:55:32 PM »

RC - Runs Created

Runs created is a popular sabermetric used to define how much a batting contributes to the number of runs scored.  After all, an RBI and a run scored are dependent upon what a player's teammates do, so they are not a true measure of an individual's contribution.

The conceptual framework of the "runs created" stat is:

RC = \frac{A\;\times\;B}{C}

where
  • A = On-base factor
  • B = Advancement factor
  • C = Opportunity factor

There are several different versions of the Runs Created formula...

Basic runs created
In the most basic runs created formula:

RC = \frac{(H+BB) \times TB}{AB+BB}

where H is hits, BB is base on balls, TB is total bases and AB is at-bats.

This can also be expressed as:

    OBP SLG AB

    or

    OBP TB

where OBP is on base percentage, SLG is slugging percentage, and PA is plate appearances

"Stolen base" version of runs created
This formula expands on the basic formula by accounting for a player's base-stealing ability.

RC = \frac{(H+BB-CS) \times (TB+(.55 \times SB))}{AB+BB}

where BB is base on balls, CS is caught stealing, TB is total bases, SB is stolen bases, and AB is at-bats.

"Technical" version of runs created
This formula accounts for all basic, easily available offensive statistics.

RC = \frac{(H+BB-CS+HBP-GIDP) \times (TB+(.26 \times (BB - IBB + HBP)) + (.52 \times (SH + SF + SB))}{AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF}

where BB is base on balls, CS is caught stealing, HBP is hit by pitch, GIDP is grounded into double play, TB is total bases, IBB is intentional base on balls, SH is sacrifice hit, SF is sacrifice fly, and AB is at bats.

"2002 version" of runs created
Earlier versions of runs created overestimated the number of runs created by players with extremely high A and B factors (on-base and slugging), such as Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Barry Bonds. This is because these formulas placed a player in an offensive context of players equal to himself; it is as if the player is assumed to be on base for himself when he hits home runs. Of course, this is impossible, and in reality, a great player is interacting with offensive players whose contributions are inferior to his. The 2002 version corrects this by placing the player in the context of his real-life team. This 2002 version also takes into account performance in "clutch" situations.

    A: H +BB -CS +HBP -GIDP
    B: (1.125 \times 1B) + (1.69 \times 2B) + (3.02 \times 3B) + (3.73 \times HR) + .29 \times (BB - IW + HBP) + .492 \times (SH + SF + SB) -(.04 \times K)
    C: AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF

where K is strikeout.  The initial individual runs created estimate is then:

RC = \left ( \frac{(2.4C+A)\;(3C+B)}{9C} \right ) - .9C

If situational hitting information is available, the following should be added to the above total:

H_{RISP} - (AB_{RISP} \times BA) + HR_{ROB} - \frac{AB_{ROB} \times HR}{AB}

where RISP is runners in scoring position, BA is batting average, HR is home run, and ROB is runners on base. The subscripts indicate the required condition for the formula. For example, HRISP means "hits while runners are in scoring position."

This is then figured for every member of the team, and an estimate of total team runs scored is added up. The actual total of team runs scored is then divided by the estimated total team runs scored, yielding a ratio of real to estimated team runs scored. The above individual runs created estimate is then multiplied by this ratio, to yield a runs created estimate for the individual.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2009, 06:31:52 PM by Colby »
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