Author Topic: Catchers - Top 20  (Read 818 times)

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Offline Michael Scott

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Catchers - Top 20
« on: March 02, 2012, 01:42:59 PM »
These are the Top 20 catcher rankings, the first 8 have individualized write ups.

1. Jesus Montero :SEA: Seattle Mariners

The number one fantasy performer of the future at catcher is Jesus Montero.  He is a very good combination power and lower strike out numbers, he can flat out hit. The BB% has fluctuated throughout the minor leagues, but should level off somewhere between 8 – 10%, while his K% should be lower than last year somewhere in the 14 – 18%.  His power numbers have been very consistent throughout his minor league years and this should easily transfer into the majors.  While the ballpark will hamper his power a bit, he is in the center of a good, young lineup for years to come.  The trade also gives a larger certainty that he should remain at Catcher in the future.  At just 22, he will get his first full season in the majors.  His tools should translate this year as he demonstrated with his cup of coffee with the Yankees last season.  The prime years of production are years away, but he is going to be good this year and only get better with time.  Montero’s production at a shallow position is something that fantasy managers will want in their lineup for years to come.

2. Devin Mesoraco :CIN: Cincinnati Reds

The number two fantasy performer of the future at catcher is Devin Mosoraco.  The one-time bust prospect has now put together two straight dynamic seasons to not only put him back on the prospect map, but very close to the top of the catcher rankings.  He is a very good combination of power, lower strike out numbers, and a good walk percentage.  Over the last two seasons he has been consistent with approximately 10% BB% and 16% K%, except for when he was promoted and there was a short adjustment period.  His power numbers in 2010 were excellent, but they fall back slightly in 2011, but still very good.  This coupled with the fact that his home park in Cinci produced the most homeruns in the National League last year, leave most fantasy GMs salivating at the possibilities.  There is no doubt that he will stick at catcher in the future, he has been praised for defense, leadership, and work ethic during the good and bad of his young career.  He will begin the season at 23, turning 24 in June. His tools should translate this year as well, but he will have to perform to get the bulk of the playing time in Cinci.  Mesoraco is a great young catcher to build around, great environment to hit in at home, good lineup around him, and he should only improve as time passes.

3. Travis d'Arnaud :TOR: Toronto Blue Jays

The number three fantasy performer of the future at catcher is Travis D’Arnaud.  Please notice that while number one and two on the list were very close to sure things, this is where catcher deviates to good future based what each has shown and the potential growth possible.  D’Arnaud is 23 and should get a taste of the big leagues by the end of this year.  He was always on the verge of being mentioned with the elite, but in 2011, his excellent numbers have him jumping up boards.  The good with D’Arnaud is there is no doubt that he will stay at catcher in the future and his power.  Last season, it began to show and hitting in Las Vegas this year, we anticipate that it will continue.  His K rate has jumped since being traded to TOR, which seems to just be a philosophy change in approach that we see with most Blue Jays and their minor league guys.  He did continue to walk at the same rate, which is a good sign , his BB% is modest ranging 6 – 8% for most of minor league career.  Just turning 23 after the season, it easy to understand that the power increase last year is for real. Once he gets his opportunity in TOR, we anticipate that he will fully seize the job by opening day 2013.  Arencbia may have power, but D’Arnaud should make him expendable with his defense and overall offensive approach.  At that point, he should be in a very good hitting lineup.  Fantasy GMs should be looking to add him before he gets the gaudy numbers of Las Vegas on his stat sheet.  We expect the hype to increase this year, but believe it is best to measure what D’Arnaud will be before the super-inflated numbers.

4. Yasmani Grandal :SD: San Diego Padres

The number four fantasy performer of the future at catcher is Yasmani Grandal.  The Miami product has always had good talent and been top pedigree.  While is young in his prospect life, being rafted in 2010, he is 23 years old.  His approach offers good BB % and some power.  His walk rate appears to be headed for 9 – 12% range.  His K Rate is not horrible, but somewhere in the 18% - 20% can be expected.  Being included in the trade to SD will suppress his power numbers in the future, if he stays with the club and his home field is PETCO.  The trade did two things, it cleared a path for Grandal to move forward, but made the future not quite as bright.  On the defensive side, his skills are not elite, but he certainly will stick at catcher.  Grandal should be pushed to AAA, with fellow Miami guy Hagerty in AA, and Hedges below.  Playing in Tucson (PCL), he should put up very good numbers and raise his stock this year. Grandal should reach the majors by the end of the year. Hundley is a solid catcher, but he could easily be dealt once the Padres determine their competitive clock (most likely not 2012) for other piece(s).  He should be a solid regular until the Padres determine if Hedges will push him or not.  Fantasy GMs should look to obtain Grandal as a solid young guy that could make an impact in 2012 if there is an injury or around the trade deadline.

5. Derek Norris :OAK: Oakland Athletics

The number five fantasy performer of the future at catcher is Derek Norris.  This is where the PROFSL scoring system and the way we evaluate things may differ the list.  At PROFSL OBP and Power score heavier, this makes Norris a very good option going forward.  This is his game, high BB% and power.  The BB% should range 13 – 16% and power production should be 20 + homeruns per year.  He has displayed good power numbers to date and at 23, should be developing more power for his game.  K’s are a big part of his game as well, this should be around 22 – 25% once all is said and done.  Norris is a good receiver and should stick at catcher.  The trade to Oakland has created a clearer path for him to move forward, but also having Oakland as a home ballfield will surpress his power some.  Suzuki is a solid, but unspectactular guy that Norris could overtake.  Norris should start 2012 at AAA.  Similar to Grandal, hitting in Sacramento (PCL) should inflate his numbers.  His power should truly be on display this year.  He has struggled the last two seasons, but also struggled with a broken hamate and this is one of the most difficult injuries to recover from as a hitter.  Norris should reach the majors by the end of the year and should compete for the starting catcher job in 2013.  Suzuki could be used as trade bait by Beane, therefore giving Norris a clear path.  He should be a solid regular going forward, but for those of use in OBP and Power laden leagues, he is a target the might be slightly under the radar. Fantasy GMs should look to buy low now on Norris before he gets toSacramento and puts the power on display.

6. Gary Sanchez:NYY: New York Yankees

The number six fantasy performer of the future at catcher is Gary Sanchez.
At 19, Sanchez has received a good deal of hype.  He is a very solid bat with power and very good power potential.  His BB rate showed good in 2010 and improved in 2011.  With a BB% of 10%, if he can continue to walk at this rate, he will be very productive.  The K rate of 2011 was slightly more concerning.  It was up to 27% in A ball.  He is still young for A ball, so hopefully that will improve.  He is a good receiver that continues to improve, he has a good chance to stick at catcher.  He will most likely begin next season at A+ Ball, the Yankees will most likely take their time developing consider he is so young and the catcher depth in the system (Romine, Murphy, Bird, etc).  Sanchez is a guy that will continue to improve his plate discipline and step to the next level of the rankings.  Sanchez's stock is a little bit lower than it was in 2010 after his 2011.  Fantasy GMs need to determine what they believe the ceiling of Sanchez to be, he could be a bargain buy with his down 2011, if he reaches his total potential.  He probably will not make an impact at the major league level before 2014.

7. Ryan Lavarnway :BOS: Boston Red Sox

The number seven fantasy performer of the future at catcher is Ryan Lavarnway.  Lavarnway has a very good offensive mix of power, patience, and contact rate.  BB rate of 10 - 13% is very nice and a K Rate of 19 - 22% will not hurt him.  Lavarnway will play in the majors all of 2012 at 24 turning 25 this year.  The biggest downside on Lavarnway is going to be if he has enough defense to stick at catcher.  From a fantasy perspective, as long as he plays 10 - 25 games at catcher per year depending on your league), he will be a good contributor at catcher.  The other major question mark on Lavarnway is his playing time.  He is going to be a solid contributor in a good lineup and hitting at Fenway will help his numbers.  As a part timer, he can help Fantasy GMs right now, if he can get a lion's share of the at bats at catcher with some DH mixed in, he could be a difference maker for GMs this year.

8. Wilin Rosario :COL: Colorado Rockies

The number eight fantasy performer of the future at catcher is Willin Rosario.  Rosario is an interesting player to own right now.  Nice mix of power and contact rate.  His walk rate is below what you would like, but has shown some signs, looks like he will end up in 6 - 9% BB%.  Rosario is a very good defensive catcher that will have no problem sticking at catcher.  Some reports have him starting as the major league backup catcher, but he could use some time at AAA to help improve his approach. With Hernandez now in COL and Pacheco filling Utility role, this is a possiblity.  One of the primary things that intrigues Fantasy Gms about Rosario is his power in COL, the core of the current lineup should be there once he arrives.  His 2011 was a down year due to his low walk rate of 4.5% and low BABIP.  He also had a very shaky winter league in the Dominican, power showed, but the OBP and average were not good.  His splits against RHP are something that are concerning going  forward as well.  Fantasy GMs should determine what they feel his future is, if his power in COL is intriguing enough to deal with other possible issues, he should be affordable at this time.  In 2012 whether in AAA or majors his power should show up, hopefully his approach will improve to make him more of well rounded option.  He is only 23, so there is room to grow.

9. Christian Bethancourt :ATL: Atlanta Braves

10. Sebastian Valle :PHI: Philadelphia Phillies

11. Blake Swihart :BOS: Boston Red Sox 

12. Tony Sanchez :PIT: Pittsburgh Pirates

13. Hector Sanchez :SF: San Francisco Giants

14. Jacob Realmuto :MIA-MLB: Miami Marlins

15. Austin Romine :NYY: New York Yankees

16. Tommy Joseph :SF: San Francisco Giants

17. Welington Castillo :CHC: Chicago Cubs

18. Oscar Hernandez :TB: Tampa Bay Rays

19. Austin Hedges :SD: San Diego Padres

20. Andrew Susac :SF: San Francisco Giants
« Last Edit: March 02, 2012, 03:52:42 PM by Corey »

Offline Mr.TradeKing

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Re: Catchers - Top 20
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2012, 02:18:02 PM »
I actually agree with the rankings atleast through the top 9. However, I like the potential d'Arnaud presents with his power/speed combo which would lead me to picking him over Mesoraco, but it would be close.

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Offline chenango

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Re: Catchers - Top 20
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2012, 01:22:41 AM »
nice list, based on my reading, gary sanchez is heavily underated, and montero over-rated. i think he will be a full timer in 2 weeks


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