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Author Topic: 2016 predictions  (Read 7188 times)

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Offline Garfield

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2015, 01:31:10 PM »
How about guessing the country roads pot with highest combined score?

I was thinking about it, but then we're kinda forcing 4 people who really wanted nothing to do with it to investigate what's happening in the other league. Not sure if that's cool...
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Offline Joelsim

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2015, 01:49:38 PM »
I think Country Roads will be very easy to predict to be honest due to the differences between some of the riders in some of the pots. The GC, Grimpeur, All Rounder, Classic pots will all demonstrate over 2,000 points difference between an early and a late pick, so the teams with the earliest picks on those will walk away with it. I think this year will be one of learning and that the format will need to change quite significantly next year. I've had all my early picks (7 so far) and would be surprised if combined they exceed Valverde or Kristoff or Sagan on their own by very much at all.

I suspect that if we add up this year's points on each of the teams there will be a huge difference between the top and bottom.



« Last Edit: November 19, 2015, 01:56:35 PM by Joelsim »

Offline TERatcliffe26

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2015, 04:46:28 PM »
I think the predictions should remain to do with this game, purely because the reward is to do with this game. (I think is purely coincidence players from this game play the, but it shouldnt be taken that that will always be the case in the future so shouldn't confuse it by crossing them over)

Offline glomser

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2015, 06:09:19 PM »
With the OS coming up next year we can add the OSRR and OSITT.

Furthermore we can predict in the big three also the winners of the different jerseys. Is it so clear that Sagan will win the Green jersey again and is the polka dot jersey so easy to predict? In any of the courses I don't see straight winners of a jersey...
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Offline Ace

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2015, 08:19:07 PM »
Predictions: Mustn't be too obvious. Also shouldn't be complete pot luck.

For this reason i think we should tweak year to year. For example in January 2015 we all assumed Tony Martin would win WCITT. Of course this didn't happen but regardless that prediction was destined to have no effect. 2016 we could each pick one TT rider and score points based on Olympics, WC and TDF.

With regards to Green Jersey i prefer most tour stage wins as this will provide at least some diversity of picks whilst also not being impossible to predict.

Polka dot jersey is too random, plus i think the total number of predictions we've had since the start was about right (wouldn't add more than a couple).

I also think that where possible we should look for interesting predictions and i personally much prefer real life events to ones linked to the game (overall winner is good but i can't say i'd be bothered if we lost most of the others).

Offline Garfield

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2015, 10:55:18 AM »
i personally much prefer real life events to ones linked to the game

As the commish, I don't. It's the only tool to make people interested in whatever is happening in the rest of our peloton. Otherwise it's just your own bids, your own draft picks, and then your own score. You can already see a (very natural) trend where everybody is blabbering about their own team, and nobody stops to analyse any other. So the predictions are the only moment where you need to pay some attention to the actions of others.
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Offline Ace

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2015, 01:32:59 AM »
I'm always interested in other's teams; thinking about it it's just the predictions which i think need improving.

Best GT team, Best Cobbled Classics, Best Hilly Classics, Last place (now we're all active) would all be good. Could also pick top 3 overall (4 points for 1st, 2 for 2nd/3rd, 2 extra for getting all 3).

Best per $ should be 40-200 and 210+

I'd get rid of best overall rider (overlap with WT), most improved (lack of diversity in picks) and maybe best Neo (too much luck).

Offline derrudi

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2015, 04:22:47 AM »
+1


I'm always interested in other's teams; thinking about it it's just the predictions which i think need improving.

Best GT team, Best Cobbled Classics, Best Hilly Classics, Last place (now we're all active) would all be good. Could also pick top 3 overall (4 points for 1st, 2 for 2nd/3rd, 2 extra for getting all 3).

Best per $ should be 40-200 and 210+

I'd get rid of best overall rider (overlap with WT), most improved (lack of diversity in picks) and maybe best Neo (too much luck).

Offline oliveira

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2015, 10:38:33 AM »
Yep, imo predictions should generate some communication within the game, about the game.

Another way to generate this would be every player to do a small analysis of other team. It could have open or closed (a secret friend type of thing) authorship, and result from a random draw.

Offline Garfield

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2015, 12:55:37 PM »
Another way to generate this would be every player to do a small analysis of other team. It could have open or closed (a secret friend type of thing) authorship, and result from a random draw.

That actually sounds quite cool! Predict their best rider, biggest scoring surprise, and biggest disappointment, maybe add a little story too? This could then even be quantified somehow to be included in the global predictions.
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