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Author Topic: FA bidding  (Read 6227 times)

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Lucas Lima #52

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #41 on: January 11, 2010, 07:34:57 PM »
Colby...

Your proposal of 90% / 130% looks good, but there are some flaws...

On bigger contracts it works fine, I tried it out, even tough I would change 130% for 110%, in order to keep things more 'linear', or there could be some jumps when you go down and up in numbers of years... Like, per example:

1 year 20 mi...
2 year 20*0.9 = 18 + 0.5 = 18.5mi
1 year again 18.5*1.3 = 24.05 = 24.5 + 0.5 = 25mi

Do you see? Almost consecutely deals jumping 5 millons... If it were 110%, the turn back would be: 18.5*1.1 = 20.35 = 20.5 + 0.5 = 21mi... One million from the original proposal, what would be the exact same value if the deal were raised twice at the same year level... Thats the 'linear' I was talking about...

With those values, the rounding up and adding at least 0.5m in each new bid, it would be guaranteed from 0.5m to 59.5mi that getting a deal, adding one year and consecutively reducing one year in order to be at the same level of the original deal, would make the new deal add at least 1mi from the original deal...

Mathematicaly speaking, add one year and reduce one consecutively, with 90% and 110%, would make cause this formula: x*0.99 + 1.05... What would guarantee at least the 1mi for deals of at max 54.5mi, rounding up.... With the rounding in the middle, from the reducing year, that value goes up to 59.5mi...

However, the big flaw I noticed is that for smaller contracts, this rates doesn't really look good...

Example...

1 year 5mi
2 years: 5*0.9= 4.5 + 0.5 = 5mi

This way, to add one year, it would be basicly keeping the same sallary... And if you use smaller values, like 2mi, there would be a need to pay 2.5m to add a year...

My suggestions would be something like allowing to teams to make the new deal at least 0.5mi smaller (with the exceptions of 1mi deals, or the guy would recieve 0.5 per year, or less the same or less money in more years)... So in the case of 5mi, the new deal would be 4.5mi...

Also, you could use the same rule from extensions in order to limit the number of years acordinly to the yearly sallary... It would help to minimize the difference while changing from 4 to 5 years instead of 1 to 2 years, and also with smaller deals... Because to raise go down from 1.5m in 4 years (6mi total) to 1mi in 5 years (5mi total) would be wrong... But with the same limit of extensions, we wouldn't get to this point...

That's it... Sorry for the big elaboration... I understand we must keep things simple, but I believe we can't just ignore the math side of it...

So, my point is... To add years, 90%... To reduce, 110%... Always round up after multiplying and then add at least 0.5mi to make the new bid... Unless the value ends up being the same of the original deal, so it would be allowed to reduce 0.5mi (except from 1 year deals)...
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Canada8999

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #40 on: January 11, 2010, 07:24:42 PM »
This may force us into long contract situations.  Then again, I do like the simplicity part of it even though small market teams will drop out of bids that go over $40-50m. 

The other issue with this is that it creates a longer bid process.  How long would it take to get up to $90m total contract for Holliday?  I don't know, it may be worth a shot Roy.

My personal preference is discounting using a time-value of money formula.  If we've decided not to go in that direction because we want to keep it simple, which I understand, then I'd personally prefer to keep it really simple and go with something like this (total value, no discounting schema).
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Offline Colby

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #39 on: January 11, 2010, 06:49:49 PM »
Roy that is true but what if someone offers 10 years at 12 mil a year = 120 mil, and someone offer 4 at 25 = 100 mil, then by total contract the person that offered 12 mil per, would be the winner.

5-year term limit prevents that offer....
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Offline Colby

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #38 on: January 11, 2010, 06:48:17 PM »
I believe that FA offers should be judged by the *total* dollars on the contract, not the amount per year.  This method would keep things simple and offer owners an interesting choice.  It would force owners to choose between longer guaranteed contracts at less dollars per year or shorter ones at larger dollars.

This may force us into long contract situations.  Then again, I do like the simplicity part of it even though small market teams will drop out of bids that go over $40-50m. 

The other issue with this is that it creates a longer bid process.  How long would it take to get up to $90m total contract for Holliday?  I don't know, it may be worth a shot Roy.
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Dan Wood

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #37 on: January 11, 2010, 06:46:28 PM »
Roy that is true but what if someone offers 10 years at 12 mil a year = 120 mil, and someone offer 4 at 25 = 100 mil, then by total contract the person that offered 12 mil per, would be the winner.
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Online rcankosy

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #36 on: January 11, 2010, 06:35:33 PM »
I believe that FA offers should be judged by the *total* dollars on the contract, not the amount per year.  This method would keep things simple and offer owners an interesting choice.  It would force owners to choose between longer guaranteed contracts at less dollars per year or shorter ones at larger dollars. 
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Offline Colby

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #35 on: January 11, 2010, 06:31:02 PM »
Correct Ben... those numbers are used as an equivalence.  An additional $0.5m would have to be tagged on AFTER the conversion.
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Canada8999

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #34 on: January 11, 2010, 05:59:45 PM »
Just so I'm straight on this...

Under Colby's 90%+yr/130%-yr proposal, Matt Holliday's bidding could look something like this...

$20m/1 yr initial offer
followed by $18m/2 yrs, then $16.5m/ 3 yrs, $15m/4 yrs, $13.5m/5 yrs, as minimums by adding a year per bid

or

$20m/1 yr initial offer
followed by $18m/2 yrs, then $23.5/1 yr in a drop down back to a one year deal

Is that a correct breakdown?


Is this what you intended Colby, or would you still need to BEAT the previous offer?  Increasing years +1 for salary at 90% only MATCHES the previous offer...  I think any bidding scheme should force new bids to exceed the previous offer, where Colby's suggested valuation can be used to compare offers of different length (to determine what the equivalent salary would be at the different contract length).
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Offline Colby

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #33 on: January 11, 2010, 02:03:03 PM »
Anything from the RC?  If we are to pass this then it needs to be done ASAP as FA opens up on the 15th.
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ChinMusic

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Re: FA bidding
« Reply #32 on: January 08, 2010, 03:27:30 PM »
Just so I'm straight on this...

Under Colby's 90%+yr/130%-yr proposal, Matt Holliday's bidding could look something like this...

$20m/1 yr initial offer
followed by $18m/2 yrs, then $16.5m/ 3 yrs, $15m/4 yrs, $13.5m/5 yrs, as minimums by adding a year per bid

or

$20m/1 yr initial offer
followed by $18m/2 yrs, then $23.5/1 yr in a drop down back to a one year deal

Is that a correct breakdown?

That's my understanding of it.

Anyone can jump in and increase the bid on the current year, of course. You don't have to add or take away years, you can add dollars to the existing years
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