Proposal to change extension method

[Rob]

Sorry to inundate you all with change proposals lately.  But I think this is a good one.  The inconsistencies in our extension values have bothered me for a long time.  Centers are overvalued and Wingers are undervalued.  Defense have always been undervalued and we've had to discount them to account for it.  Our rosters are littered with good Wingers that are signed for small dollars, and only the best Centers get extensions here - the rest go to FA to get eaten up for less than they would normally extend for.  Also natural Wingers are getting extended for Center prices for taking a few faceoffs here and there, causing prices to be inconsistent. 

We have some fantastic analytical minds in this league.  Shooter and Gypsie are mostly responsible for both this idea and all the work fleshing out the numbers.  In the end, it's actually pretty simple:

• 1 fantasy point = $25,000

Shooter put in the work behind this figure.  He broke down the cap money we pay overall in the league vs the production we end with on the ice to find this value, and scaled it to match our current price scheme as closely as possible. 

How this works is you take the players FP for both the current and prior season, multiply that by 0.025 (in millions) and the greater of those two values is your extension value. 

What this does/how this helps?

• Players are no longer categorized by position, their value is wholly dependent on their FP production which eliminates pricing inequities between positions, unless they truly exist on the ice.
• Defensive players no longer need to be discounted since they will be paid for their production specifically
• Ease of use - you'll no longer have to look up extensions and the admins won't have to spend time reviewing the figures.  On a yearly basis I will download the Fantrax CSV of all owned players, add a column that multiplies FP by the 0.025 factor to establish the value, and share it on the forum - you'll just need to look up your player and you'll find their value
• Isolates us from the NHL economy.  The cost factor is a constant and can be used forever.  We no longer have to adjust extension costs and the salary cap to match the NHL.  We're on our own with this.  The only maintenance should be adjusting the salary cap in a few years if our current projections are off and there's cap excess (or we give in to the squeeze)
• No more dual eligibility extension nightmares - some of which who are C eligible were forcing the costs of other legit wingers way down
• This also serves to add to the FA pool because the middle gets more expensive with such a large crop of Wingers getting the pricetag increases they deserve.  There will be more 1.75-2.5PPG players hitting FA for this reason.
• There will be an increase in pricing overall.  This happens in the middle.  Top tier talent won't change much.  The top 25 scoring players in the league will earn almost the same amount in the aggregate as they did in the old model (some make more, some make less, but nearly equal in total).  After that, middle tier players are more expensive on average to the tune of just under 20% - there's about $2B in contract extensions in the current system over 675 players - those same 675 players cost $2.4B in the new system.  This means more mid to low scoring players going to FA - while not shifting things on the top end. 

Here's what the top 25 players extensions would look like under this model, to show no change in overall pricing at the top. 

Player	FPts	New Ext Cost	Current Ext Cost	Difference in Value	Percent Change in Value
Nikita Kucherov	428.3	$10.70	$10.5	0.2075	2%
Alex Ovechkin	423.25	$10.60	$9.5	1.08125	11%
Nathan MacKinnon	401.35	$10.00	$12.5	-2.46625	-20%
Patrick Kane	398.3	$10.00	$10.3	-0.3425	-3%
Connor McDavid	384.75	$9.60	$11.0	-1.38125	-13%
Leon Draisaitl	378.8	$9.50	$10.5	-1.03	-10%
John Tavares	371.85	$9.30	$10.0	-0.70375	-7%
Steven Stamkos	362.8	$9.10	$10.0	-0.93	-9%
Sidney Crosby	360.65	$9.00	$9.5	-0.48375	-5%
Johnny Gaudreau	349.85	$8.70	$9.9	-1.15375	-12%
Andrei Vasilevskiy	348.25	$8.70	$10.5	-1.79375	-17%
Brad Marchand	346.65	$8.70	$7.5	1.16625	16%
Brayden Point	345.7	$8.60	$8.7	-0.0575	-1%
Frederik Andersen	345	$8.60	$8.5	0.125	1%
Tyler Seguin	343.2	$8.60	$8.5	0.08	1%
Carey Price	340.75	$8.50	$7.4	1.11875	15%
Connor Hellebuyck	338	$8.50	$7.0	1.45	21%
Jake Guentzel	325.4	$8.10	$8.6	-0.465	-5%
Sebastian Aho	325.4	$8.10	$8.3	-0.165	-2%
Mitchell Marner	325.3	$8.10	$8.3	-0.1675	-2%
Gabriel Landeskog	320.65	$8.00	$7.0	1.01625	15%
Aleksander Barkov	316.7	$7.90	$8.0	-0.0825	-1%
Sergei Bobrovsky	315.75	$7.90	$6.2	1.69375	27%
David Pastrnak	313.8	$7.80	$8.3	-0.455	-5%
		$212.60	$216.5	-3.73875	-2%

Here's a couple examples of rosters and what they would look like if all of their extended players were extended under the new rules compared with the old rules.  Players acquired via FA or under prospect contracts are not adjusted.  Players with prospect discounts have that discount applied to the new value. 

Player	Position	Team	FPts	CURRENT CONTRACTS	NEW RULES	Conditions
Alex Ovechkin	LW	WAS	423.25	$         9.5	$       10.6
Evgeny Kuznetsov	C	WAS	247.75	$         5.8	$         5.2	Discounted
Nicklas Backstrom	C	WAS	246.75	$         6.0	$         6.2
Filip Forsberg	LW	WAS	240.65	$         4.9	$         5.0	Discounted
Semyon Varlamov	G	WAS	229	$         5.7	$         5.7
David Rittich	G	WAS	217.75	$         0.5	$         0.5	P-20/21
Tom Wilson	RW	WAS	204.7	$         2.0	$         5.1
Yanni Gourde	LW,RW	WAS	195.65	$         0.5	$         0.5	P-n/a
J.T. Miller	LW,RW	WAS	180.75	$         5.0	$         4.5
Jack Campbell	G	WAS	145	$         0.5	$         0.5	P-n/a
Michal Kempny	D	WAS	128.75	$         0.9	$         0.9	Acquired via FA
David Backes	C,RW	WAS	118.15	$         5.0	$         5.0	Acquired via FA
Antoine Roussel	LW	WAS	115.95	$         0.9	$         2.9
Andre Burakovsky	LW,RW	WAS	108.35	$         0.9	$         2.7
Cody Ceci	D	WAS	105.2	$         2.0	$         2.2
Loui Eriksson	LW,RW	WAS	94.3	$         5.0	$         5.0	Acquired via FA
Jonas Brodin	D	WAS	69	$         1.5	$         1.7
Ty Rattie	LW,RW	WAS	62.85	$         0.5	$         0.5	P-19/20
Charles Hudon	LW,RW	WAS	36.15	$         0.5	$         0.5	P-19/20
Chris Wideman	D	WAS	19.7	$         2.6	$         0.8
				$       60.2	$       66.0

Washington is a perfect example of a team taking advantage of underpaid wingers.  Tom Wilson, Roussel and Burakovsky are all drastically underpaid in the current extension system.  All 3 of these players might be in the FA pool if the new system were adopted.  That's good for those who want to inject more talent in the FA pool.  Also you'll notice that right now Brian is not paying for any depth Centers at all.  Why?  Because he's about to grab a handful of them in FA for half the price that he could extend them for.  That's what we're looking to fix and why this model will help.

Well managed teams with lots of discounted prospect contracts will still feel the pinch.  Here's what would happen to the Blues roster.  I eliminated Corey Perry and Patrik Berglund from this because they're old contracts and have no current value, and only screw up the calculations.

Player	Position	Team	FPts	CURRENT CONTRACTS	NEW RULES	Conditions
Leon Draisaitl	C,LW	STL	378.8	$5.5	$6.7	Discounted
Connor Hellebuyck	G	STL	338	$5.9	$6.0	Discounted
Aleksander Barkov	C	STL	316.7	$4.2	$5.5	Discounted
Sean Monahan	C	STL	299.55	$4.8	$5.3	Discounted
Vladimir Tarasenko	RW	STL	298.55	$6.0	$5.3	Discounted
Jonathan Huberdeau	LW	STL	296.75	$6.0	$7.4
Dylan Larkin	C	STL	288.25	$3.5	$5.2	Discounted
Kyle Connor	LW	STL	250.2	$0.5	$0.5	P-19/20
Henrik Lundqvist	G	STL	240.25	$5.9	$6.0
Roman Josi	D	STL	228.55	$5.0	$5.7
Victor Hedman	D	STL	211.85	$5.3	$5.3
Jakub Voracek	RW	STL	210.25	$5.3	$5.3
Mathew Barzal	C	STL	201.4	$0.5	$0.5	P-19/20
Jake Allen	G	STL	195	$3.3	$4.9
Jason Zucker	LW,RW	STL	189.45	$5.8	$4.7
Thomas Chabot	D	STL	186.8	$0.5	$0.5	P-19/20
Jordan Binnington	G	STL	181	$0.5	$0.5	P-n/a
Shea Weber	D	STL	179.95	$5.0	$4.5
Alex Pietrangelo	D	STL	165.3	$4.5	$4.1
Juuse Saros	G	STL	155	$0.5	$0.5	P-n/a
Leo Komarov	LW,RW	STL	148.05	$0.9	$0.9	Acquired via FA
Jaden Schwartz	LW	STL	147.4	$3.5	$2.6	Discounted
Brandon Montour	D	STL	130.4	$0.5	$0.5	P-19/20
Tyson Jost	C,LW	STL	111.1	$0.5	$0.5	P-19/20
				$69.8	$74.8

                                    
You'll notice Shooter is also not carrying any depth Centers during the offseason.  He does has a plethora of youth for depth, but even if he didn't - depth C are a dime a dozen in the current market and he'd still be in great shape at that position.

One thing that would need to change is in-season extensions.  They would no longer exist. I don't want to be calculating partial year values.  So extensions would turn on and off with the regular season. 

With a ton of support from Shooter and Gypsie I've been fleshing this out all day... And I love it.  I not only want to do this - I want to do it now.  I see no reason we can't convert to this method immediately.  We can allow up until the start of the season for any extensions in the old system - and close them out as of day 1. 

Thoughts? Questions? Concerns?  Let's hear it.

[WestCoastExpress]

Given the time, effort and thought put into this, I ain’t gonna sit here and say no.

Besides, it seems like a cool new way to do things and makes it fair per production. The only way you’d get a discount would be a guy is injured 2 years in a row. In which case you deserve a discount for having to deal with that bandaid player.

I’m all for it.

Thanks for figuring all that out. Crunching numbers like that would make my head hurt. You guys must be into analytics or spreadsheet or accounting type work! Not my jam but glad you guys are all over it.

I’m good with putting into effect for next off-season. Which with no in-season extensions it technically starts after the first pick drop this season.
It’ll suck balls for me with so many expecting guys next summer but it is what it is and I won’t be the only one.

 

[GypsieDeathBringer]

Not sure what other leagues are like, but I am glad to be a part of one where so many people put so much time and thought into keeping things great and improving areas that might need it.

This has my support.

[SlackJack]

Super supportive but if we do this let's get it right across the board.

How this works is you take the players FP for both the current and prior season, multiply that by 0.025 (in millions) and the greater of those two values is your extension value.

The greater of the two years could be an outlier and makes no attempt to account for historical production. Use the greater of the two values for rookies that will be signed to prospect discounts, but the average for extension values.

[jmtrops]

I had figured this out a couple of years ago. I had charted the top 20 at each position and found for the most part they ranged from 23K to 27K. this is something that is on my teams spreadsheet and I use it to help determine which players to trade or cut. one of the reasons it was better for me to trade Marchand who was at around 27K even with his high production.

so Im all for this change

[Rob]

Super supportive but if we do this let's get it right across the board.

The greater of the two years could be an outlier and makes no attempt to account for historical production. Use the greater of the two values for rookies that will be signed to prospect discounts, but the average for extension values.

We've always done the 2 year thing. I'm not exactly sure how average would work, but, wouldn't an average also include some outlier numbers? Like guys who drop off quickly like Corey Perry?

[SlackJack]

We've always done the 2 year thing. I'm not exactly sure how average would work, but, wouldn't an average also include some outlier numbers? Like guys who drop off quickly like Corey Perry?

Yes which is why an average of the last 3 years is best.

[shooter47]

Yes which is why an average of the last 3 years is best.

I don't really like using averages. Say a player gets injured and misses and entire season 3 years ago. Then has two high seasons where he shows he's a top player again. You would get a 33% discount on his resign just because he missed a year 3 years ago?

[SlackJack]

I don't really like using averages. Say a player gets injured and misses and entire season 3 years ago. Then has two high seasons where he shows he's a top player again. You would get a 33% discount on his resign just because he missed a year 3 years ago?

Real life NHL contracts get discounted based on a players injury history.

[SlackJack]

I don't really like using averages. Say a player gets injured and misses and entire season 3 years ago. Then has two high seasons where he shows he's a top player again. You would get a 33% discount on his resign just because he missed a year 3 years ago?

But if you want something really solid take the average of the best two of the last three years. Seems like something Excel can handle.