Author Topic: Proposal to change extension method  (Read 4768 times)

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Offline Rob

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Proposal to change extension method
« on: August 11, 2019, 01:29:30 AM »
Sorry to inundate you all with change proposals lately.  But I think this is a good one.  The inconsistencies in our extension values have bothered me for a long time.  Centers are overvalued and Wingers are undervalued.  Defense have always been undervalued and we've had to discount them to account for it.  Our rosters are littered with good Wingers that are signed for small dollars, and only the best Centers get extensions here - the rest go to FA to get eaten up for less than they would normally extend for.  Also natural Wingers are getting extended for Center prices for taking a few faceoffs here and there, causing prices to be inconsistent. 

We have some fantastic analytical minds in this league.  Shooter and Gypsie are mostly responsible for both this idea and all the work fleshing out the numbers.  In the end, it's actually pretty simple:

  • 1 fantasy point = $25,000

Shooter put in the work behind this figure.  He broke down the cap money we pay overall in the league vs the production we end with on the ice to find this value, and scaled it to match our current price scheme as closely as possible. 

How this works is you take the players FP for both the current and prior season, multiply that by 0.025 (in millions) and the greater of those two values is your extension value. 

What this does/how this helps?
  • Players are no longer categorized by position, their value is wholly dependent on their FP production which eliminates pricing inequities between positions, unless they truly exist on the ice.
  • Defensive players no longer need to be discounted since they will be paid for their production specifically
  • Ease of use - you'll no longer have to look up extensions and the admins won't have to spend time reviewing the figures.  On a yearly basis I will download the Fantrax CSV of all owned players, add a column that multiplies FP by the 0.025 factor to establish the value, and share it on the forum - you'll just need to look up your player and you'll find their value
  • Isolates us from the NHL economy.  The cost factor is a constant and can be used forever.  We no longer have to adjust extension costs and the salary cap to match the NHL.  We're on our own with this.  The only maintenance should be adjusting the salary cap in a few years if our current projections are off and there's cap excess (or we give in to the squeeze)
  • No more dual eligibility extension nightmares - some of which who are C eligible were forcing the costs of other legit wingers way down
  • This also serves to add to the FA pool because the middle gets more expensive with such a large crop of Wingers getting the pricetag increases they deserve.  There will be more 1.75-2.5PPG players hitting FA for this reason.
  • There will be an increase in pricing overall.  This happens in the middle.  Top tier talent won't change much.  The top 25 scoring players in the league will earn almost the same amount in the aggregate as they did in the old model (some make more, some make less, but nearly equal in total).  After that, middle tier players are more expensive on average to the tune of just under 20% - there's about $2B in contract extensions in the current system over 675 players - those same 675 players cost $2.4B in the new system.  This means more mid to low scoring players going to FA - while not shifting things on the top end. 

Here's what the top 25 players extensions would look like under this model, to show no change in overall pricing at the top. 

   Player      FPts      New Ext Cost       Current Ext Cost       Difference in Value      Percent Change in Value   
   Nikita Kucherov      428.3      $10.70        $10.5       0.2075      2%   
   Alex Ovechkin      423.25      $10.60        $9.5       1.08125      11%   
   Nathan MacKinnon      401.35      $10.00        $12.5       -2.46625      -20%   
   Patrick Kane      398.3      $10.00        $10.3       -0.3425      -3%   
   Connor McDavid      384.75      $9.60        $11.0       -1.38125      -13%   
   Leon Draisaitl      378.8      $9.50        $10.5       -1.03      -10%   
   John Tavares      371.85      $9.30        $10.0       -0.70375      -7%   
   Steven Stamkos      362.8      $9.10        $10.0       -0.93      -9%   
   Sidney Crosby      360.65      $9.00        $9.5       -0.48375      -5%   
   Johnny Gaudreau      349.85      $8.70        $9.9       -1.15375      -12%   
   Andrei Vasilevskiy      348.25      $8.70        $10.5       -1.79375      -17%   
   Brad Marchand      346.65      $8.70        $7.5       1.16625      16%   
   Brayden Point      345.7      $8.60        $8.7       -0.0575      -1%   
   Frederik Andersen      345      $8.60        $8.5       0.125      1%   
   Tyler Seguin      343.2      $8.60        $8.5       0.08      1%   
   Carey Price      340.75      $8.50        $7.4       1.11875      15%   
   Connor Hellebuyck      338      $8.50        $7.0       1.45      21%   
   Jake Guentzel      325.4      $8.10        $8.6       -0.465      -5%   
   Sebastian Aho      325.4      $8.10        $8.3       -0.165      -2%   
   Mitchell Marner      325.3      $8.10        $8.3       -0.1675      -2%   
   Gabriel Landeskog      320.65      $8.00        $7.0       1.01625      15%   
   Aleksander Barkov      316.7      $7.90        $8.0       -0.0825      -1%   
   Sergei Bobrovsky      315.75      $7.90        $6.2       1.69375      27%   
   David Pastrnak      313.8      $7.80        $8.3       -0.455      -5%   
               $212.60        $216.5       -3.73875      -2%   


Here's a couple examples of rosters and what they would look like if all of their extended players were extended under the new rules compared with the old rules.  Players acquired via FA or under prospect contracts are not adjusted.  Players with prospect discounts have that discount applied to the new value. 

   Player      Position      Team      FPts      CURRENT CONTRACTS      NEW RULES      Conditions   
   Alex Ovechkin      LW      WAS      423.25       $         9.5       $       10.6         
   Evgeny Kuznetsov      C      WAS      247.75       $         5.8       $         5.2      Discounted   
   Nicklas Backstrom      C      WAS      246.75       $         6.0       $         6.2         
   Filip Forsberg      LW      WAS      240.65       $         4.9       $         5.0      Discounted   
   Semyon Varlamov      G      WAS      229       $         5.7       $         5.7         
   David Rittich      G      WAS      217.75       $         0.5       $         0.5      P-20/21   
   Tom Wilson      RW      WAS      204.7       $         2.0       $         5.1         
   Yanni Gourde      LW,RW      WAS      195.65       $         0.5       $         0.5      P-n/a   
   J.T. Miller      LW,RW      WAS      180.75       $         5.0       $         4.5         
   Jack Campbell      G      WAS      145       $         0.5       $         0.5      P-n/a   
   Michal Kempny      D      WAS      128.75       $         0.9       $         0.9      Acquired via FA   
   David Backes      C,RW      WAS      118.15       $         5.0       $         5.0      Acquired via FA   
   Antoine Roussel      LW      WAS      115.95       $         0.9       $         2.9         
   Andre Burakovsky      LW,RW      WAS      108.35       $         0.9       $         2.7         
   Cody Ceci      D      WAS      105.2       $         2.0       $         2.2         
   Loui Eriksson      LW,RW      WAS      94.3       $         5.0       $         5.0      Acquired via FA   
   Jonas Brodin      D      WAS      69       $         1.5       $         1.7         
   Ty Rattie      LW,RW      WAS      62.85       $         0.5       $         0.5      P-19/20   
   Charles Hudon      LW,RW      WAS      36.15       $         0.5       $         0.5      P-19/20   
   Chris Wideman      D      WAS      19.7       $         2.6       $         0.8         
                            $       60.2       $       66.0         

Washington is a perfect example of a team taking advantage of underpaid wingers.  Tom Wilson, Roussel and Burakovsky are all drastically underpaid in the current extension system.  All 3 of these players might be in the FA pool if the new system were adopted.  That's good for those who want to inject more talent in the FA pool.  Also you'll notice that right now Brian is not paying for any depth Centers at all.  Why?  Because he's about to grab a handful of them in FA for half the price that he could extend them for.  That's what we're looking to fix and why this model will help.

Well managed teams with lots of discounted prospect contracts will still feel the pinch.  Here's what would happen to the Blues roster.  I eliminated Corey Perry and Patrik Berglund from this because they're old contracts and have no current value, and only screw up the calculations.

   Player      Position      Team      FPts      CURRENT CONTRACTS      NEW RULES      Conditions   
   Leon Draisaitl      C,LW      STL      378.8       $5.5        $6.7       Discounted   
   Connor Hellebuyck      G      STL      338       $5.9        $6.0       Discounted   
   Aleksander Barkov      C      STL      316.7       $4.2        $5.5       Discounted   
   Sean Monahan      C      STL      299.55       $4.8        $5.3       Discounted   
   Vladimir Tarasenko      RW      STL      298.55       $6.0        $5.3       Discounted   
   Jonathan Huberdeau      LW      STL      296.75       $6.0        $7.4          
   Dylan Larkin      C      STL      288.25       $3.5        $5.2       Discounted   
   Kyle Connor      LW      STL      250.2       $0.5        $0.5       P-19/20   
   Henrik Lundqvist      G      STL      240.25       $5.9        $6.0          
   Roman Josi      D      STL      228.55       $5.0        $5.7          
   Victor Hedman      D      STL      211.85       $5.3        $5.3          
   Jakub Voracek      RW      STL      210.25       $5.3        $5.3          
   Mathew Barzal      C      STL      201.4       $0.5        $0.5       P-19/20   
   Jake Allen      G      STL      195       $3.3        $4.9          
   Jason Zucker      LW,RW      STL      189.45       $5.8        $4.7          
   Thomas Chabot      D      STL      186.8       $0.5        $0.5       P-19/20   
   Jordan Binnington      G      STL      181       $0.5        $0.5       P-n/a   
   Shea Weber      D      STL      179.95       $5.0        $4.5          
   Alex Pietrangelo      D      STL      165.3       $4.5        $4.1          
   Juuse Saros      G      STL      155       $0.5        $0.5       P-n/a   
   Leo Komarov      LW,RW      STL      148.05       $0.9        $0.9       Acquired via FA   
   Jaden Schwartz      LW      STL      147.4       $3.5        $2.6       Discounted   
   Brandon Montour      D      STL      130.4       $0.5        $0.5       P-19/20   
   Tyson Jost      C,LW      STL      111.1       $0.5        $0.5       P-19/20   
                         $69.8       $74.8         
                                    
You'll notice Shooter is also not carrying any depth Centers during the offseason.  He does has a plethora of youth for depth, but even if he didn't - depth C are a dime a dozen in the current market and he'd still be in great shape at that position.

One thing that would need to change is in-season extensions.  They would no longer exist. I don't want to be calculating partial year values.  So extensions would turn on and off with the regular season. 

With a ton of support from Shooter and Gypsie I've been fleshing this out all day... And I love it.  I not only want to do this - I want to do it now.  I see no reason we can't convert to this method immediately.  We can allow up until the start of the season for any extensions in the old system - and close them out as of day 1. 

Thoughts? Questions? Concerns?  Let's hear it.
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Offline WestCoastExpress

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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2019, 03:03:37 AM »
Given the time, effort and thought put into this, I ain’t gonna sit here and say no.

Besides, it seems like a cool new way to do things and makes it fair per production. The only way you’d get a discount would be a guy is injured 2 years in a row. In which case you deserve a discount for having to deal with that bandaid player.

I’m all for it.

Thanks for figuring all that out. Crunching numbers like that would make my head hurt. You guys must be into analytics or spreadsheet or accounting type work! Not my jam but glad you guys are all over it.

I’m good with putting into effect for next off-season. Which with no in-season extensions it technically starts after the first pick drop this season.
It’ll suck balls for me with so many expecting guys next summer but it is what it is and I won’t be the only one.

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Offline GypsieDeathBringer

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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2019, 07:35:52 AM »
Not sure what other leagues are like, but I am glad to be a part of one where so many people put so much time and thought into keeping things great and improving areas that might need it.

This has my support.
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Offline SlackJack

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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2019, 09:38:15 AM »
Super supportive but if we do this let's get it right across the board.

Quote
How this works is you take the players FP for both the current and prior season, multiply that by 0.025 (in millions) and the greater of those two values is your extension value.

The greater of the two years could be an outlier and makes no attempt to account for historical production. Use the greater of the two values for rookies that will be signed to prospect discounts, but the average for extension values.

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Offline jmtrops

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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2019, 09:49:24 AM »
I had figured this out a couple of years ago. I had charted the top 20 at each position and found for the most part they ranged from 23K to 27K. this is something that is on my teams spreadsheet and I use it to help determine which players to trade or cut. one of the reasons it was better for me to trade Marchand who was at around 27K even with his high production.

so Im all for this change
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Offline Rob

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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2019, 09:54:31 AM »
Super supportive but if we do this let's get it right across the board.

The greater of the two years could be an outlier and makes no attempt to account for historical production. Use the greater of the two values for rookies that will be signed to prospect discounts, but the average for extension values.

We've always done the 2 year thing. I'm not exactly sure how average would work, but, wouldn't an average also include some outlier numbers? Like guys who drop off quickly like Corey Perry?
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Offline SlackJack

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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2019, 10:05:59 AM »
We've always done the 2 year thing. I'm not exactly sure how average would work, but, wouldn't an average also include some outlier numbers? Like guys who drop off quickly like Corey Perry?
Yes which is why an average of the last 3 years is best.
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Offline shooter47

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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2019, 10:09:15 AM »
Yes which is why an average of the last 3 years is best.

I don't really like using averages. Say a player gets injured and misses and entire season 3 years ago. Then has two high seasons where he shows he's a top player again. You would get a 33% discount on his resign just because he missed a year 3 years ago?
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Offline SlackJack

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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2019, 10:13:06 AM »
I don't really like using averages. Say a player gets injured and misses and entire season 3 years ago. Then has two high seasons where he shows he's a top player again. You would get a 33% discount on his resign just because he missed a year 3 years ago?
Real life NHL contracts get discounted based on a players injury history.
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Re: Proposal to change extension method
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2019, 10:24:43 AM »
I don't really like using averages. Say a player gets injured and misses and entire season 3 years ago. Then has two high seasons where he shows he's a top player again. You would get a 33% discount on his resign just because he missed a year 3 years ago?
But if you want something really solid take the average of the best two of the last three years. Seems like something Excel can handle.
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  • BayAreaBallers: celebrate that LA
    March 20, 2024, 10:27:15 PM
  • Daddy: Well, im a Ram fan that loves Philadelphia Sports. I agree, take that Dodgers! Go Phils!!!
    March 20, 2024, 10:33:02 PM
  • Daddy: Something in the water in California ;)
    March 20, 2024, 10:34:01 PM
  • Daddy: They would legalize meth but gambling oh nooooo.
    March 20, 2024, 10:35:12 PM
  • Brent: I've lived in Japan for 3 years and Okinawa for 3 years.  You could legit leave you car unlocked with money on the dash board in a public parking lot, come back and the money is still there.
    March 20, 2024, 10:43:11 PM
  • Jwalkerjr88: Im a fan of Japanese culture
    March 20, 2024, 11:05:07 PM
  • Jwalkerjr88: From power rangers and pokemon as a kid, to the edo period, anime, video games, and ninjas
    March 20, 2024, 11:05:58 PM
  • Brent: Best  comment I gave seen on the Ohtani gambling scandal.  "Pete Rose wishes he had an interpreter"
    March 21, 2024, 12:25:08 AM
  • Brent: Have seen
    March 21, 2024, 12:25:18 AM
  • Daddy: And i wish i had a friend that covers my debts. I aint got $500k to put on Temple but thats the kind of friends i need.
    March 21, 2024, 12:27:31 AM
  • Daddy: Where yall at?????
    March 21, 2024, 12:28:32 AM
  • Braves155: There's nothin wrong with the good ol' nudie bar and a few lap dances. Who needs alcohol/drugs/scandal
    March 21, 2024, 08:09:08 AM
  • Braves155: For trade talks/chat in general, if anyone wants my cell #, msg me
    March 21, 2024, 08:37:22 AM
  • dbreer23: Life was so much simpler (maybe not better) before the internet...
    March 21, 2024, 11:47:48 AM
  • Daddy: It was better for me. My parents were alive, grand parents, and a multitude of mistakes had not yet occured. Many of them internet related.
    March 21, 2024, 04:28:54 PM
  • Alpha5: We really should be doing March Madness brackets
    March 21, 2024, 06:31:31 PM
  • jmntl82: I did one on paper and left it on my desk and it went missing so someone must’ve decided it was perfect
    March 22, 2024, 08:41:01 AM
  • janesvilleaces: Padres mlb live here all day for deals..lots of young talent..looking for 3b or 1b...rp...
    March 22, 2024, 09:08:50 AM
  • Colby: :bump:
    March 22, 2024, 09:59:59 AM
  • STLBlues91: Catching up on messages. Busy week with conferences and finishing state testing. Will send replies in a few
    March 22, 2024, 10:05:56 PM
  • indiansnation: If anybody wants to talk mlb live trade talk hit me up with a pm
    March 24, 2024, 10:19:08 AM
  • Daddy: Yeah baseball is starting up. The "long season" is here.
    March 24, 2024, 12:55:24 PM
  • PsychoticPondGoons: :taco::taco::taco: FNHL PLAYOFFS Round 1 RESULTS here ==> [link]
    March 25, 2024, 10:11:43 AM
  • Daddy: MLB LIVE business is picking up. Trades & FA are back in action.
    Yesterday at 06:07:10 PM
  • indiansnation: Daddy pm
    Today at 12:54:15 AM