Blog Manager's Note: Here is the third ProFSL contribution from Bleacher Report's Ely Sussman. Be sure to read the full slideshow filled with pictures and more links over at Bleacher Report.Early in the season, it is difficult to distinguish hot players from truly talented ones. We’re left wondering which of the league’s leading producers will sustain their production throughout 2012. By identifying fantasy frauds now, you’ll be able to sell them while their stock is high. Giving up on a rising superstar could haunt you all summer. But sticking with a scrub as he regresses from excellence to his actual playing ability can also be tough to stomach.
The following 10 individuals are enjoying off-the-charts success through the regular season’s second weekend. None have ever been considered extraordinary fantasy options. I’ll tell you whether any are finally emerging as legitimate stars.
C Yadier Molina (St. Louis Cardinals)St. Louis Cardinals starting catcher Yadier Molina had somewhat of a breakout year in 2011.
He finished with career highs in batting average (.305), home runs (14), runs batted in (65) and runs scored (55). Now—with Albert Pujols gone and his own future taken care of—Molina has become one of fantasy baseball's elite backstops. The first-place Cards lead the majors in scoring despite an injury to Lance Berkman and negligible contributions from Matt Holliday.
The offense promises to be a potent one when those two get going. Expect Molina to have ample opportunities to bat with runners in scoring position this season. He always posts a sparkling strikeout-to-walk ratio and he's completely capable of a batting average akin to 2011's. I'm only skeptical about his slugging. He's currently on pace for 300-plus total bases. That isn't sustainable for a ninth-year player whose previous best is 221.
2012 stats through April 15: .353 AVG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 9 R, 1 SB, 4 BB, 6 K
3B David Freese (St. Louis Cardinals)Teammate David Freese is nearly the National League's top batter. It's as if the World Series never ended for him!
His early-season power numbers cannot realistically be maintained over six months (he's averaging more than a RBI per game). Although the St. Louis Cardinals third baseman won't produce like Evan Longoria or Jose Bautista, he won't be far behind, either.
The late-bloomer has been successful at every level of professional baseball, including in the big leagues for much of 2011. Impatience at the plate will limit his on-base percentage and consequently, his runs scored. His line-drive swing won't deliver more than 20 home runs.
Still, there is no shame in starting David Freese. He—like Yadier Molina—will reap the benefits of batting amid a great lineup.
2012 stats through April 15: .406 AVG, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 6 R, 1 BB, 8 K
SP Lance Lynn (St. Louis Cardinals)Rest assured, this is a league-wide article, but the St. Louis Cardinals have achieved a 7-3 record because of three, first-time fantasy studs.
Lance Lynn has already defeated two division rivals in 2012, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs. He surrendered just one run to each. He will stay in the rotation indefinitely with Chris Carpenter sidelined. Mid-90s fastball velocity and a filthy curveball could contribute to countless strikeouts for the talented right-hander.
However, he will need to prove that his slider—abandoned a year ago when he was relieving—can be an effective third pitch. Lynn is not a MLB ace, but he'll continue to dominate lineups that are devoid of lefty power. Pay close attention to his matchups.
2012 stats through April 15: 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 12.0 IP, 13 K, 0.75 WHIP
LF J.D. Martinez (Houston Astros)Outfielder J.D. Martinez has been a steady producer for the Houston Astros with at least one hit in every 2012 game. But his success as a second-year outfielder is hardly surprising. Martinez was a .342 career batter in the Minor Leagues.
Veteran first baseman Carlos Lee has started strong, too. With him in the cleanup spot, Martinez should keep seeing hittable pitches. However, he isn't exactly the second coming of Hunter Pence, who—now with the Philadelphia Phillies—complements power hitting with double-digit base stealing. The Astros frankly don't have a deep batting order. As a result, Martinez won't touch home plate as often as somebody of his talent should.
2012 stats through April 15: .371 AVG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 5 R, 4 BB, 7 K
LF Shelley Duncan (Cleveland Indians)Shelley Duncan has forever been a platoon player. That hasn't changed despite his hot start.
Free agent Johnny Damon was just signed by the Cleveland Indians, a transaction that demotes Duncan from starting left fielder to his usual role. Something of this ilk was inevitable. When healthy, Grady Sizemore uproots center fielder Michael Brantley and shifts him to left.
Also, Matt LaPorta is wreaking havoc at Triple-A Columbus. He could see time at the position if recalled. Duncan has exhibited uncharacteristic plate discipline through eight games while still hammering extra-base hits. Alas, he'll lose value with a lack of plate appearances.
2012 stats through April 15: .320 AVG, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, 8 BB, 6 K
