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Author Topic: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All  (Read 105 times)

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Offline GypsieDeathBringer

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Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« on: February 15, 2017, 10:36:46 AM »
Instead of doing a normal one of these I did some statistics instead.  This will be our 6th year, so with 5 years behind us we have a large enough sample to make some interesting statistically insights.  I looked into the % chance each playoff seed has at making it to the Semi-Finals, Finals, and Winning it All.  You do not want to be the 9 or 10 seed.  This also shows that winning your division helps, but the best team can come from outside the top 4 as well. 

This is our current playoff standings. 
                                                                              % Chance to make the following rounds:

   Standing      Team      Semi-Finals      Finals      Victor   
   1      Vancouver Canucks      100%      60%      40%   
   2      St. Louis Blues      40%      0%      0%   
   3      Buffalo Sabres      80%      80%      20%   
   4      Edmonton Oilers      20%      0%      0%   
   5      Colorado Avs      80%      20%      20%   
   6      Boston Bruins      20%      0%      0%   
   7      Los Angeles Kings      40%      20%      20%   
   8      Carolina Hurricanes      20%      0%      0%   
   9      Anaheim Ducks      0%      0%      0%   
   10      Detroit Red Wings      0%      0%      0%   
                                 
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 11:22:06 AM by GypsieDeathBringer »
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Offline Rob

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Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2017, 10:40:33 AM »
Interesting.  What goes into these figures?  It must be heavy on history since my odds should be much lower than St Louis!

Offline Rob

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Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2017, 10:49:43 AM »
I prettied up your table a bit ;)

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Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2017, 10:51:01 AM »
Oh, it's just based on the seeding history.  I see.

Offline GypsieDeathBringer

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Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2017, 10:52:38 AM »
Oh is it based on historical seeding only?

Yeah just historical history of the seeds themselves.  I will probably delve into past performance by the individual teams when the teams and seeding are locked in.
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Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2017, 10:55:25 AM »
Gotcha.  Nice work!

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Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2017, 10:56:25 AM »
Basically you're saying I should let Buffalo win my division.

Offline shooter47

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Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2017, 11:07:57 AM »
The seeding isn't shown correctly. Right now Buffalo would be the 3rd seed and Edmonton would be the 4th. Colorado falls to the 5th see because the top 4 seeds go to division winners. Boston would slot in as the 6th seed. 7th-10th seeds would be correct as shown.

Offline GypsieDeathBringer

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Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2017, 11:23:26 AM »
The seeding isn't shown correctly. Right now Buffalo would be the 3rd seed and Edmonton would be the 4th. Colorado falls to the 5th see because the top 4 seeds go to division winners. Boston would slot in as the 6th seed. 7th-10th seeds would be correct as shown.

Corrected.  I copied and pasted the wrong standings table in there.
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