* Dynasty NHL

Blank 



Boston Bruins Buffalo Sabres New York Rangers Washington Capitals Philadelphia Flyers :: Detroit Red Wings Pittsburgh Penguins Chicago Blackhawks Tampa Bay Lightning Carolina Hurricanes 
Edmonton Oilers Montreal Canadiens Toronto Maple Leafs Vancouver Canucks Calgary Flames :: Anaheim Ducks Colorado Avalanche St. Louis Blues Las Vegas Golden Knights Los Angeles Kings 
Blank --------------------------------------
Blank DNHL Champions
 |
Carolina Hurricanes 11/12 | Chicago Blackhawks 12/13 | Detroit Red Wings 13/14 | Anaheim Ducks 14/15 | Anaheim Ducks 15/16 | St. Louis Blues 16/17 |

Author Topic: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All  (Read 219 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline GypsieDeathBringer

  • All-Pro
  • ***
  • Join Date: Jun 2011
  • Posts: 1007
  • Bonus inPoints: 0
  • Fantasy Prestige 1
    • :PIT:
    • :DAL:
    • :ORL:
    • :PIT-NHL:
    • :Pittsburgh:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« on: February 15, 2017, 10:36:46 AM »
Instead of doing a normal one of these I did some statistics instead.  This will be our 6th year, so with 5 years behind us we have a large enough sample to make some interesting statistically insights.  I looked into the % chance each playoff seed has at making it to the Semi-Finals, Finals, and Winning it All.  You do not want to be the 9 or 10 seed.  This also shows that winning your division helps, but the best team can come from outside the top 4 as well. 

This is our current playoff standings. 
                                                                              % Chance to make the following rounds:

   Standing      Team      Semi-Finals      Finals      Victor   
   1      Vancouver Canucks      100%      60%      40%   
   2      St. Louis Blues      40%      0%      0%   
   3      Buffalo Sabres      80%      80%      20%   
   4      Edmonton Oilers      20%      0%      0%   
   5      Colorado Avs      80%      20%      20%   
   6      Boston Bruins      20%      0%      0%   
   7      Los Angeles Kings      40%      20%      20%   
   8      Carolina Hurricanes      20%      0%      0%   
   9      Anaheim Ducks      0%      0%      0%   
   10      Detroit Red Wings      0%      0%      0%   
                                 
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 11:22:06 AM by GypsieDeathBringer »
2011-12 Dynasty NHL Stanley Cup Champion :CAR-NHL:

Offline Rob

  • League Moderator
  • MVP
  • *****
  • Join Date: Oct 2010
  • Posts: 13402
  • Bonus inPoints: 3
  • Fantasy Prestige 10
    • :BOS:
    • :NE:
    • :Blank:
    • :BOS-NHL:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2017, 10:40:33 AM »
Interesting.  What goes into these figures?  It must be heavy on history since my odds should be much lower than St Louis!

Offline Rob

  • League Moderator
  • MVP
  • *****
  • Join Date: Oct 2010
  • Posts: 13402
  • Bonus inPoints: 3
  • Fantasy Prestige 10
    • :BOS:
    • :NE:
    • :Blank:
    • :BOS-NHL:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2017, 10:49:43 AM »
I prettied up your table a bit ;)

Offline Rob

  • League Moderator
  • MVP
  • *****
  • Join Date: Oct 2010
  • Posts: 13402
  • Bonus inPoints: 3
  • Fantasy Prestige 10
    • :BOS:
    • :NE:
    • :Blank:
    • :BOS-NHL:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2017, 10:51:01 AM »
Oh, it's just based on the seeding history.  I see.

Offline GypsieDeathBringer

  • All-Pro
  • ***
  • Join Date: Jun 2011
  • Posts: 1007
  • Bonus inPoints: 0
  • Fantasy Prestige 1
    • :PIT:
    • :DAL:
    • :ORL:
    • :PIT-NHL:
    • :Pittsburgh:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2017, 10:52:38 AM »
Oh is it based on historical seeding only?

Yeah just historical history of the seeds themselves.  I will probably delve into past performance by the individual teams when the teams and seeding are locked in.
2011-12 Dynasty NHL Stanley Cup Champion :CAR-NHL:

Offline Rob

  • League Moderator
  • MVP
  • *****
  • Join Date: Oct 2010
  • Posts: 13402
  • Bonus inPoints: 3
  • Fantasy Prestige 10
    • :BOS:
    • :NE:
    • :Blank:
    • :BOS-NHL:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2017, 10:55:25 AM »
Gotcha.  Nice work!

Offline Rob

  • League Moderator
  • MVP
  • *****
  • Join Date: Oct 2010
  • Posts: 13402
  • Bonus inPoints: 3
  • Fantasy Prestige 10
    • :BOS:
    • :NE:
    • :Blank:
    • :BOS-NHL:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2017, 10:56:25 AM »
Basically you're saying I should let Buffalo win my division.

Offline shooter47

  • MVP
  • ***
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 3975
  • Bonus inPoints: 0
  • Fantasy Prestige 2
    • :MIN:
    • :MIN-NFL:
    • :MIN-NBA:
    • :MIN-NHL:
    • :NorthDakotaState:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2017, 11:07:57 AM »
The seeding isn't shown correctly. Right now Buffalo would be the 3rd seed and Edmonton would be the 4th. Colorado falls to the 5th see because the top 4 seeds go to division winners. Boston would slot in as the 6th seed. 7th-10th seeds would be correct as shown.

Offline GypsieDeathBringer

  • All-Pro
  • ***
  • Join Date: Jun 2011
  • Posts: 1007
  • Bonus inPoints: 0
  • Fantasy Prestige 1
    • :PIT:
    • :DAL:
    • :ORL:
    • :PIT-NHL:
    • :Pittsburgh:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2017, 11:23:26 AM »
The seeding isn't shown correctly. Right now Buffalo would be the 3rd seed and Edmonton would be the 4th. Colorado falls to the 5th see because the top 4 seeds go to division winners. Boston would slot in as the 6th seed. 7th-10th seeds would be correct as shown.

Corrected.  I copied and pasted the wrong standings table in there.
2011-12 Dynasty NHL Stanley Cup Champion :CAR-NHL:

Offline izaman3

  • MVP
  • ***
  • Join Date: Jun 2011
  • Posts: 2972
  • Bonus inPoints: 0
  • Fantasy Prestige 0
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • :DET-NHL:
    • :Michigan:
    • :Blank:
    • :Blank:
    • View Profile
Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2017, 09:58:25 AM »
Its good to know that if I manage to squeak into the playoffs, I have a 0% shot...

 :doh: :doh:

 

With Quick-Reply you can write a post when viewing a topic without loading a new page. You can still use bulletin board code and smileys as you would in a normal post.

Name: Email:
Verification:
Type the letters shown in the picture
Listen to the letters / Request another image
Type the letters shown in the picture:
Last name of MLB all-time HR leader:
Who won the 2015 mens NCAA basketball championship (school name only):

Forum Search


Quick Profile

 
 
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?

* Chat Room

Refresh History
  • PsychoticPondGoons: about time
    April 26, 2017, 04:34:57 PM
  • PsychoticPondGoons: real hockey
    April 26, 2017, 04:35:00 PM
  • Tony: Caps will win. More depth, better goalie. They got a wake up call in round one.
    April 26, 2017, 09:27:07 PM
  • themarksman13: Penguins have the two best players in the series though.
    April 27, 2017, 01:18:03 PM
  • themarksman13: Keep that in mind ;)
    April 27, 2017, 01:18:07 PM
  • ldsjayhawk: I have a feeling this is going to be an ugly season for my baseball teams
    April 27, 2017, 01:19:14 PM
  • Gr8O: The Caps made Crosby and Malkin a non-factor in last years playoffs. If they can do it again this year with their added depth and Fleury being the goalie over Murray this time around, the Caps have a better shot this year than last year
    April 27, 2017, 01:28:40 PM
  • Gr8O: Crosby and Malkin only had 4 points between them last year against the Caps
    April 27, 2017, 01:31:38 PM
  • snugerud: fleury has been playing awesome careful what you wish for.
    April 27, 2017, 03:40:11 PM
  • snugerud: either way, i think it is going to be a wicked fun series to watch
    April 27, 2017, 03:41:46 PM
  • Jonathan: To be the best, you have to beat the best!
    April 27, 2017, 08:26:21 PM
  • snugerud: i will still allow you to re-nig on the fleury comment
    April 27, 2017, 11:33:48 PM
  • themarksman13: You can't keep expecting them to contain Malkin and Crosby. The Penguins are just too deep, especially last year, when they had their three best offensive weapons on three different lines.
    April 28, 2017, 03:38:34 AM
  • indiansnation: Those pm
    April 28, 2017, 10:30:35 AM
  • indiansnation: Bhows pm
    April 28, 2017, 10:30:53 AM
  • indiansnation: Looking to move vets in bush
    April 28, 2017, 10:38:24 AM
  • Daddy: Hello Brian
    April 28, 2017, 03:47:24 PM
  • Daddy: When you get a chance pm me if you left the other site
    April 28, 2017, 03:47:57 PM
  • Jonathan: and trade me Eller, while you're at it!  :o
    April 28, 2017, 04:58:49 PM
  • Jonathan: DeShaun Watson has some big shoes to fill in Houston, he'll be haunted by the ghost of Brock Osweiler with Texans.
    April 28, 2017, 05:13:09 PM
  • Drew: Watson can only be a hero in comparison!
    April 28, 2017, 05:15:42 PM
  • Jonathan: Canes got their G, trading for Scott Darling. 2nd straight year they dealt around this time, last year it was Teuvo.
    April 28, 2017, 08:34:49 PM
  • Jonathan: It was a 3rd round pick, love deal for Carolina. Loaded with picks and money.
    April 28, 2017, 08:36:15 PM
  • themarksman13: Have they signed him yet?
    Yesterday at 04:38:25 PM
  • Jonathan: No, they cant sign him. They have a 5 day window right before FA to sign him, but its a done deal. Great opportunity for him.
    Yesterday at 04:44:36 PM
  • Jonathan: He is actually from this area too, from Virginia Beach.
    Yesterday at 04:49:09 PM
  • Jonathan: Actually, he grew up in Chicago. His dad was in the military in Virginia.
    Yesterday at 04:50:34 PM
  • Jonathan: Seems like an easy decision for him, No competition at Starter, no limits on cap and a solid D in front of him.
    Yesterday at 04:53:20 PM
  • Jonathan: Looking back, Chicago probably should of found a way to trade Crawford and keep Darling. Even with losing Darling, they still need to make a move to deal with cap problems and Crawford is the easiest player to move for that.
    Yesterday at 09:27:59 PM
  • Jonathan: I guess that is what happens when you pay 2 guys 30% of cap
    Yesterday at 09:33:41 PM
  • Jonathan: Colorado got shafted, picking 4th
    Yesterday at 09:48:44 PM
  • Tony: Wow maybe I'm wrong about the Caps.  Time to blue up the team.
    Today at 12:46:12 AM
  • favo_zomg: That and Crawford has a nmc and he can tailor his list to make it impossible to trade him
    Today at 12:02:25 PM
  • Tony: Blow*
    Today at 12:13:09 PM
  • leppardkev: Why isn't fantrax working?
    Today at 01:05:06 PM
  • themarksman13: Yeah they're paying way too much to Kane and Toews lol
    Today at 01:18:31 PM
  • Jonathan: No, they're paying too much of a the salary cap to 2 stars. Kane and Toews could of got 12M  a year max. The team is making out though, all the money they're making off them.
    Today at 01:51:10 PM
  • Jonathan: they choked this year.
    Today at 01:59:27 PM
  • Anthony: Hawks didn't have much of a choice. It's the price you pay to keep your best two guys together. It sucks now but as the cap goes up, it'll even out. Stars will start getting 10m
    Today at 04:29:23 PM
  • Anthony: McDavid, AM are going to get 10m by the time they become FAls
    Today at 04:30:09 PM
  • themarksman13: Nah
    Today at 04:40:12 PM
  • themarksman13: Look at Crosby Malkin
    Today at 04:40:15 PM
  • themarksman13: They're all 9m or less
    Today at 04:40:24 PM
  • themarksman13: same with Ovie
    Today at 04:40:27 PM
  • themarksman13: no reason for them to pay Toews and Kane 2m more than Crosby. In no world other than NHL 17 is either of them better than Sid
    Today at 04:40:53 PM
  • Anthony: Not true. Malkin is 9.5
    Today at 05:02:22 PM
  • Anthony: Plus Ovi signed in 2008, when the cap was much different
    Today at 05:03:13 PM
  • Anthony: Crosby signed in 2012, again cap was different than it is now
    Today at 05:03:26 PM
  • Anthony: It was smart for the penguins to sign Crosby when they did for 8.7m, when he could have easily gotten 10m+
    Today at 05:05:08 PM
  • Anthony: Kopitar makes 10m a year now. Things are going to change sooner than you think
    Today at 05:05:54 PM