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Fantasy Leagues => Dynasty NHL => NHL Leagues => Dynasty NHL: Archive => Topic started by: GypsieDeathBringer on February 15, 2017, 10:36:46 AM

Title: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: GypsieDeathBringer on February 15, 2017, 10:36:46 AM
Instead of doing a normal one of these I did some statistics instead.  This will be our 6th year, so with 5 years behind us we have a large enough sample to make some interesting statistically insights.  I looked into the % chance each playoff seed has at making it to the Semi-Finals, Finals, and Winning it All.  You do not want to be the 9 or 10 seed.  This also shows that winning your division helps, but the best team can come from outside the top 4 as well. 

This is our current playoff standings. 
                                                                              % Chance to make the following rounds:

   Standing      Team      Semi-Finals      Finals      Victor   
   1      Vancouver Canucks      100%      60%      40%   
   2      St. Louis Blues      40%      0%      0%   
   3      Buffalo Sabres      80%      80%      20%   
   4      Edmonton Oilers      20%      0%      0%   
   5      Colorado Avs      80%      20%      20%   
   6      Boston Bruins      20%      0%      0%   
   7      Los Angeles Kings      40%      20%      20%   
   8      Carolina Hurricanes      20%      0%      0%   
   9      Anaheim Ducks      0%      0%      0%   
   10      Detroit Red Wings      0%      0%      0%   
                                 
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: Rob on February 15, 2017, 10:40:33 AM
Interesting.  What goes into these figures?  It must be heavy on history since my odds should be much lower than St Louis!
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: Rob on February 15, 2017, 10:49:43 AM
I prettied up your table a bit ;)
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: Rob on February 15, 2017, 10:51:01 AM
Oh, it's just based on the seeding history.  I see.
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: GypsieDeathBringer on February 15, 2017, 10:52:38 AM
Quote from: Rob on February 15, 2017, 10:51:01 AM
Oh is it based on historical seeding only?

Yeah just historical history of the seeds themselves.  I will probably delve into past performance by the individual teams when the teams and seeding are locked in.
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: Rob on February 15, 2017, 10:55:25 AM
Gotcha.  Nice work!
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: Rob on February 15, 2017, 10:56:25 AM
Basically you're saying I should let Buffalo win my division.
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: shooter47 on February 15, 2017, 11:07:57 AM
The seeding isn't shown correctly. Right now Buffalo would be the 3rd seed and Edmonton would be the 4th. Colorado falls to the 5th see because the top 4 seeds go to division winners. Boston would slot in as the 6th seed. 7th-10th seeds would be correct as shown.
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: GypsieDeathBringer on February 15, 2017, 11:23:26 AM
Quote from: shooter47 on February 15, 2017, 11:07:57 AM
The seeding isn't shown correctly. Right now Buffalo would be the 3rd seed and Edmonton would be the 4th. Colorado falls to the 5th see because the top 4 seeds go to division winners. Boston would slot in as the 6th seed. 7th-10th seeds would be correct as shown.

Corrected.  I copied and pasted the wrong standings table in there.
Title: Re: Power Rankings: Study on % Chance to Win it All
Post by: izaman3 on March 05, 2017, 09:58:25 AM
Its good to know that if I manage to squeak into the playoffs, I have a 0% shot...

 :doh: :doh: