Draft Grades / Rounds 1-5

[chrisetc21]

I guess just for fun, I'm going to grade the draft so far.  Obviously these will be my own subjective opinions and hopefully nobody gets bent out of shape.  It's just for fun and maybe it'll start some back and forth.  I think I'll do it by divisions. 

NL East first!

[chrisetc21]

NL East


Atlanta Braves

1.13 - Clint Frazier OF
2.13 - Jason Hursh P
3.13 - Oscar Mercado SS
4.13 - Sam Moll P
5.13 - skipped

Atlanta began their draft with a pleasant surprise when Clint Frazier fell into their lap.  Frazier has tremendous bat speed and big power.  I rated him the third best prep hitter in the draft though many rated him the top high school hitter in the draft.  Frazier slugged over .500 in the rookie Arizona League this year.  Jason Hursh was another good value pick in the 2nd round.  He's had Tommy John surgery but his velocity has touched 98 prior to the draft.  His fastball is one of the best in the entire draft but his secondary pitches need work and there are questions about his durability.  Oscar Mercado is an excellent fielder but struggles with the bat.  The Cardinals went way over slot to get him to forgo his commitment to Florida State, obviously they're big believers in his ability.  Sam Moll is a 5'10" stocky fireballing lefty that also has a good slider. 

Some great value getting Frazier at 13, perhaps the best value pick in the draft.  Mercado may never hit enough to reach the majors.  Hursh and Moll are nice arms.  Skipped pick hurts the grade.   

Atlanta: B-



Miami Marlins

2.22 - Trevor Williams P
3.22 - Daniel Palka 1B

The Marlins had few picks to make due to trades.  Trevor Williams is a 6'3" 228 pound right hander that throws in the low 90's, has a good changeup, and good control.  He's got middle of the rotation starter upside.  Daniel Palka is a straight masher.  He was on my want list of players for this draft.  He clubbed pitching in the Pioneer League and the Northwest League after the draft to a combined .310 avg, .392 OBP, and .516 slg.  He's likely stuck at first due to lack of athleticism. 

The Marlins made moves to strengthen their team through trades and it obviously hurts their draft.  I love the Palka pick but not so crazy about Williams. 

Miami Marlins: D+



New York Mets

1.11 - Dominic Smith 1B
2.11 - Austin Wilson OF
3.11 - Cody Reed P
4.11 - Stuart Turner C
5.11 - Jordan Patterson OF
 
Dominic Smith is an advanced hitter with a good idea at the plate and he's also an excellent defensive first baseman, potential gold glove quality.  Austin Wilson has the tools that makes teams drool.  He's 6'5" 245 pounds and a great athlete.  Big power and great bat speed.  Unfortunately the potential hasn't translated to performance thus far.  Cody Reed is a 6'5" 220 pound lefty, great arm but very raw.  Reed struggled with his control in the Pioneer League after the draft allowing 7 walks per 9 innings in 29.2 innings.  Stuart Turner is a 6'2" 220 pound catcher, scouts like his arm and agility behind the plate but question his bat.  He hit .264 and drew some walks in 34 games in the APPY League after the draft.  Jordan Patterson is a 6'5" 215 pound outfielder with a nice line drive stroke.  He had a nice debut in the Pioneer League but perhaps due to playing in a great hitter's park in Grand Junction and also being 21 years old, a bit older for this rookie league.  He hit .291 with 10 home runs in 206 at bats. 

Really mixed draft here.  Loved the Dominic Smith selection.  Wilson and Reed have too high a bust potential for my liking in those rounds.  Stuart Turner and Jordan Patterson were solid picks. 

New York Mets: C+



Philadelphi Phillies

1.30 - Eric Jagielo 3B
2.8 - Ian Clarkin P
2.28 - Dustin Peterson 3B
3.3 - Cord Sandberg OF
4.8 - Kevin Ziomek P
4.22 - Andrew Mitchell P
4.28 - Zane Evans C
4.30 - Myles Smith P
5.8 - Jacob Nottingham C

The Phils have racked up a lot of picks with some moves before the draft.  Eric Jagielo was tremendous value at the 30th pick in the draft.  Jagielo is a solid hitter with good power.  He hit .266 with an .827 OPS in the New York Penn League in his pro debut.  Clarkin was one of the top prep pitchers available.  Throws low 90's heat with a plus curveball and shows a potential average changeup.  Another great value pick with Clarkin at 2.8.  Dustin Peterson is the younger brother of DJ Peterson who went in the first round.  Probably a better hitter than his older brother at this age, Peterson has a quick bat and a sweet swing, probably won't stay at shortstop due to his arm and size.  Cord Sandberg, one of the top high school athletes in the draft.  Lots of bat speed and plenty of strength but lacks instincts in the field likely due to being a two sport athlete.  A tremendous value pick with Ziomek in the 4th round.  Ziomek is a 6'3" 190 pound lefty from Vanderbilt.  He throws low 90's and has shown a good changeup and an average slider.  Andrew Mitchell is nother huge value pick here.  He's touched 98 with the heater and has shown a great curveball.  Mitchell probably is a future reliever due to consistency and command issues.  Zane Evans tore up the Pioneer League to the tune of a .352 average and .931 OPS.  He threw out only 21% of runners however and was a bit older for the league at 21 years old.  Myles Smith has a fastball that sits 91-95 and has a plus changeup.  Jacob Nottingham is a 6'3" 220 pound high school catcher with good power potential, has a long way to go offensively and defensively. 

If you had to sum up the Phillies draft it would be great value.  There's a ton of potential in this draft with players like Clarkin, Peterson, and Sandberg but of course with high ceiling high schoolers comes great risk.  The two catchers selected  could pay big dividends years down the road.     

Phiadelphi Phillies: A



Washington Nationals

1.26 - Jake Johansen P
2.26 - Jeff Thompson P
3.26 - Thomas Milone OF
4.26 - Jake Sweaney C
5.26 - Travis Seabrooke P

Jake Johansen is huge, 6'6" 235 pounds and throws 98 mile an hour heat.  He is probably a future reliever.  Johansen struggled in A ball with a 5.79 era and 1.929 whip.  Jeff Thompson is another huge pitcher who hits 95 on the gun.  He has a nice slider but again possibly a future reliever.  Thompson had a 3.80 era in A ball.  Thomas Milone is a raw, athletic, speedy outfielder, a project type player.  He struggled in the Gulf Coast League hitting .190 with 38 k's in 40 games.  Jake Sweaney is another raw player, a two sport athlete with good bat speed and good athleticism.  He hit .164 with 31 k's in 31 games in the Gulf Coast League.  Seabrooke is 6'5" 182 pounds, son of former NHL'er Glen Seabrooke.  Seabrooke was one of the youngest players in the draft and pitched well in limited innings in rookie ball.

Probably the opposite of the Phillies draft, very poor value picks here.  Too much risk with very raw players in picks three through five.  Johansen and Thompson are power arms that could save the draft if they reach the majors. 

Washington Nationals: D 



AL East


Baltimore Orioles

1.14 - Trey Ball P
2.14 - Michael Lorenzen P
3.14 - Andrew Knapp C
4.14 - Keynan Middleton P
5.14 - skipped

Trey Ball is the ultimate upside high schooler.  He's 6'6", 185 pounds and an excellent athlete.  He throws a heater up to 94 and has a plus curveball in the making and a good changeup.  He struggled in a short stint in rookie ball but he's a legit elite talent.  Lorenzen is sort of the college version of Trey Ball.  An excellent athlete that can touch 97 with the fastball with easy effort and a nice curveball.  He made it all the way to double A after the draft and had a 3.00 era overall across four levels in the Reds system.  Andrew Knapp is a 6'1" 192 pound catcher with good athleticism and has the tools to be a solid catcher.  He's a switch hitter with good upside potential with the bat.  He hit .253 with a .741 OPS as a 21 year old in the New York Penn League.  Keynan Middleton, much like Ball and Lorenzen, is a very good athlete as well.  Middleton is very raw due to being a two sport athlete, he throws in the low 90's with a slider.  He is a high upside/bust type of prospect. 

The Orioles draft thus far is highlighted by Trey Ball who could very well become a front line starter in the Majors one day.  I consider it a risky draft thus far for the Orioles selecting high upside, athletic pitchers with two of them being high schoolers which is always more risky than more proven collegians. 

Baltimore Orioles: C+


Boston Red Sox

1.15 - Braden Shipley P
2.15 - Teddy Stankiewicz P
4.15 - Mike Mayers P
5.15 - Andrew Church P
5.22 - Carter Hope P

Braden Shipley was regarded by many as the third best college pitcher in the draft.  The Red Sox got great value here by picking Shipley with the 15th pick.  Shipley touches 98 with the fastball and has an excellent change up.  Shipley is a good athlete and has a mean streak, he will throw inside and challenge hitters. Teddy Stankiewicz is a 6'4" 215 pound right hander that throws in the low 90's and gives glimpses of a plus slider. Stankiewicz pitched well in the New York Penn League with a 2.29 era in 19.2 innings.  Mike Mayers is an athletic 6'3" 205 pound right hander that throws in the low 90's, has three solid pitches however his fastball doesn't show a lot of movement.  Many project him as a fifth starter type.  Andrew Church is a high upside, athletic prep pitcher, 6'1" 185 poounds.  His fastball touches 95 and his curveball has plus pitch potential.  Carter Hope is also a high upside, athletic prep pitcher, 6'3" 195 pounds.  Hope struggled badly in the Arizona League with a 6.08 era, giving up 21 hits in 13.1 innings.

The Red Sox got tremendous value with Braden Shipley at 1.15 and he could save Boston's draft by becoming a front line starter however the rest of the draft is a bit underwhelming. 

Boston Red Sox: C-


New York Yankees

1.5 Reese McGuire C
2.5 Rob Zastryzny P
3.5 Kent Emanuel P
3.27 Dace Kime P
4.5 Austin Voth P
4.6 Corey Littrell P
4.24 Kean Wong 2B
5.5 Isaiah Kiner-Falefa SS
5.6 Jimmie Sherfy P
6.5 Cory Thompson SS
6.6 Johneswhy Fargas OF
6.8 Tyler Mahle P

Reese McGuire is regarded as the best defensive player in the entire draft.  He hit .330 in the Gulf Coast League and got rave reviews for his baseball IQ.  The history of high school catchers in the draft is poor so McGuire looks to change that trend.  Rob Zastryzny is a 6'3" 193 pound lefty out of the University of Missouri.  Zastryzny varies the speed on his fastball but tops out at 95.  He shows a changeup with plus potential but his breaking ball lacks consistency.  He pitched well through two levels after the draft posting a combined 2.25 era and 22k's in 24 innings.  Kent Emanuel is a college lefty, 6'4" 225 pounds with a deceptive delivery.  His fastball is average at high 80's to low 90's with good command.  He has a good changeup and his slider and curveball are average pitches.  He's a high floor low ceiling player, should move quickly through the minors.  Dace Kime is a 6'5" 219 pound college right hander with a 95 mile an hour fastball and an excellent curveball.  Kime was a college reliever for most of his career but his future may be as a starter.  He had a 2.92 era and a 9.5k/9 in 24.2 innings for Mahoning Valley in the New York Penn League.  Austin Voth was second in the PAC 10 in strikeouts to Mark Appel.  Voth has good fastball command and can touch 94 mph.  Scout view him as a reliever though he had a combined 1.75 era across three levels as a starter after the draft with 55 k's in 46.1 innings.  Corey Littrell is a 6'3" 185 pound lefty that touches 92 with the fastball and has an excellent changeup.  He has control issues at times but projects as a starter.  He rang up a 1.74 ERA and 30 k's in 31 innings for Lowell in the New York Penn League.  Kean Wong, brother of Kolten Wong, has a quick lefthanded stroke and sprays line drives, he has an advanced approach and extra base power.  Wong hit .328 in 46 Gulf Coat League games after the draft.  Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is a good defender with some speed that makes good contact but needs to add strength.  He hit .322 and stole 12 bases in 41 games in the Arizona League, his OBP of .388 was higher than his slugging percentage of .356.  Jimmie Sherfy has  straight bullpen stuff.  He is slight of build at 6' 175 but he touches 96 with the fastball and has a nasty slider.  He is closer material as evidenced by his 1.04 era and 29 k's in 17.1 innings of relief across two levels after the draft.  Cory Thompson has good speed and is a good defender, he's a two way prospect but has played shorstop thus far in the minors.  He hit .266 in 48 Arizona League games committing 24 errors in the process.  Joneshway Fargas has elite speed and a wiry frame at 6'2" 160 pounds.  He hit .299 with 8 steals in 11 chances in 30 Arizona League games.  And finally, Tyler Mahle is an athletic 6'2" 175 pound right hander with upside.  Mahle hits 92 on the gun, his curve and changeup have good potential.  He had a 2.36 era and 30 k's in 34 innings in the Arizone League. 

The Yankees have a ton of depth here but it's later round depth.  It's clear the Yankees have done their homework but they may have fallen into a trap by relying too heavily on post draft statistical performance in limited playing time to make their selections.  Only time will tell if that's the case.  McGuire is a potential superstar.

New York Yankees: A-   


Tampa Rays

1.17 - Billy McKinney OF
2.17 - Jon Denney C
3.17 - Jordan Paroubeck OF
4.17 - Dylan Covey P
5.17 - Dom Nunez 3B

Billy McKinney was one of the top high school hitters in the draft and a real gamer.  There doesn't seem to be much doubt that McKinney will hit, he has a quick bat and an advanced approach.  He hit .326 across two levels with an OBP of .387 and a slugging percentage of .437.  Jon Denney is one of the higher rated catchers in the draft.  He struggled in 26 games hitting .203 however he did throw out 35% of base stealers.  Jordan Paroubeck is an athletic 6'2" 185 pound outfielder with a lot of projection.  He's a switch hitter and a plus runner with a great work ethic.  Paroubeck is all about potential here.  Dylan Covey touches 95 with the fastball and has a plus breaking pitch.  His changeup is still developing.  He has middle of the rotation upside.  Dom Nunez has great baseball IQ and has a compact lefthanded swing.  He a very good defender at third base however he needs work with the bat and needs to add strength.  He hit .200 in 55 games in the Pioneer League. 

The Rays have a sure hitter in Billy McKinney and a nice catching prospect in Jon Denney.  Paroubeck, Covey, and Nunez are also nice prospects with a good potential payoff.  They've had a solid draft.

Tampa Rays: B-     


Toronto Blue Jays

1.1 - Kris Bryant 3B
2.1 - Christian Arroyo SS
3.1 - Ryan Eades P
4.1 - Stephen Gonsalves P
5.1 - Chris Kohler P

Kris Bryant was easily the best hitter in the draft.  He looks to hit for average and power.  Bryant shredded minor league pitching across three levels with an OPS of 1.078 including a .336 average.  Bryant is a potential star player though he may move away from third base in the future.  Christian Arroyo may have a plus hit tool and he was named MVP of the Arizona League after leading the league in hitting at .326.  The scouting on Arroyo is mixed.  Some feel he isn't quick enough to play middle infield nor does he have the power to play third.  Ryan Eades is a 6'3" 198 athletic right hander who can touch 95 with the fastball and has front of the rotation upside.  Stephen Gonsalves is an upside pick who steam rolled through two levels after the draft posting a .95 era with 39 k's in 28.1 innings.  Gonsalves is a 6'5" 190 pound athletic high school lefty.  Chris Kohler is another athletic high school lefty at 6'3" 190 pounds.  Kohler has good feel for three pitches and throws low 90's heat.  He has a 2.78 era and 32 k's in 22.2 innings in rookie ball.   

The Blue Jays draft is very well balanced with talent, value, and upside.  An impact bat and potential superstar in Bryant who was the best hitter in the draft, two solid prospects in Arroyo and Eades, and high upside left handed pitching that has already performed very well in the minors in Gonsalves and Kohler.

Toronto Blue Jays: A+ 

[ThePetis]

This is awesome, Chris. Can't wait til you make it over to the AL East.

I didn't realize what an excellent draft Philly has been having. Totally agree with the A . I like the Braves draft a lot, despite the skipped pick. Lots of value there. Frazier at 13 was a steal.

[Jss0062]

 I would also factor in the pick up Bubba Starling for a 4th and 6th into the grade raising it an A+.

Great work on the break down.


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[chrisetc21]

Definitely not high on Starling. 

[Jss0062]

Definitely a down year for Starling and in no way am I saying he's on a Trout of Harper level.  This was still his first season in full season ball and August was his best month of the season by far. Not to mention he also had LASIK surgery in mid May, that takes an adjustment period.  He's still a young high ceiling tool shed top 100 prospect picked up for a couple very expendable picks.  Many people down on him more because of his signing bonus than anything else. 


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[chrisetc21]

Definitely a down year for Starling and in no way am I saying he's on a Trout of Harper level.  This was still his first season in full season ball and August was his best month of the season by far. Not to mention he also had LASIK surgery in mid May, that takes an adjustment period.  He's still a young high ceiling tool shed top 100 prospect picked up for a couple very expendable picks.  Many people down on him more because of his signing bonus than anything else. 


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Well you're definitely not getting that kind of talent in the 4th round but next year is a big year for him.  It was worth the shot though if you think he's going to turn it around.  It could be a big payoff.

[Jss0062]

Well you're definitely not getting that kind of talent in the 4th round but next year is a big year for him.  It was worth the shot though if you think he's going to turn it around.  It could be a big payoff.

I look at it like trading 2 $1 scratch off tickets for a $10 dollar ticket. If all tickets hit the break even prize I'm up 8 bucks. Bigger prizes at every level too. Low risk, high reward is a no brainer for me.


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[Lindner]

I would also factor in the pick up Bubba Starling for a 4th and 6th into the grade raising it an A+.

Great work on the break down.


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I would think that negatively affect your grade. 

[yahoolando]

Nice breakdown Chris!