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Author Topic: Need New Scoring System  (Read 8128 times)

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chrisetc21

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Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #43 on: October 12, 2013, 01:22:39 AM »
Damn, is it possible to take two players, one good defender and one bad defender, and see the defensive point differential?
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Jss0062

  • Guest
Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #42 on: October 12, 2013, 01:15:46 AM »
I Started running numbers with the numbers I proposed, they needed some work.  Outfielders got overvalued with assists, first base and catcher also needed some work, shortstop was still low.

This lead me to look into errors.  I took errors per assist and divided it by the assist ratio from the earlier numbers.  This gives an error penalty that works each position with higher error positions such as 3B and SS with lower penalties and the low error outfield positions with higher penalties.

The numbers a lot better but didn't reflect dWAR so I added in postion bonuses to the assist numbers and error numbers.

The numbers from earlier are updated to this

No Change to the PPP number for any positions

No Change to PPA for
Pitchers
Left Field
Right Field
Catchers

First base   PPA = 0.677
Second base  PPA = 0.263
Third base PPA = 0.395
Shortstop PPA = 0.314
Center Field PPA = 15.383


Error penalties would be as follows.

Pitchers -7.52
Catchers -9.75
First Base -12.68
Second Base -5.94
Third Base -3.71
Shortstop -2.48
Left Field -19.92
Center Field -16.33
Right Field -18.17
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yahoolando

  • Guest
Need New Scoring System
« Reply #41 on: October 11, 2013, 11:02:40 PM »
Fair enough. Great job Jeremy. Have a good weekend. Ciao.
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Jss0062

  • Guest
Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #40 on: October 11, 2013, 07:31:12 PM »
Sure picks are great and so are foul tips but how many of those plays are way too easy?  I played community college ball and there is a lot to be said for a great defensive 1B for sure.  But making the throw and the fielding play on an assist is worth more in my books.  Just my 2 cents.  Chances double for an error.  That is why best athletes play up the middle for great defence.

I just don't see how it can be done.  How would we figure the amount to lower it by?  Trying to figure how much more an assist is worth is completely arbitrary.  The system I outlined over the last five years averaged nearly 2892 points per position for each assists and putouts.  Even a 10% decrease would not make much of a difference in a weekly league like this one. Granted there are more chances for an error, but most errors occur on routine plays that should be easy or by making a throw that shouldn't have been made.  An error is only charged when an ordinary play is botched.  Plays made deep in the hole where the throw is off line or a charging 3rd basemen who can't bare hand a slow roller are not charged an error.  This is why the average points for an assist in my proposed system is 2.67 times the amount of an average putout.
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yahoolando

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Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #39 on: October 11, 2013, 07:09:03 PM »
I view them as equal.  A good defensive first baseman saves a lot of errors from the other infielders with his ability to make difficult picks, in those cases the putout is often the more difficult part of that play, same goes for catchers who are above average at catching foul tip 3rd strikes.  This goes for outfielders too, the guys who get better reads on balls and have better speed catch more balls than those who don't thus giving them more putouts and less chance of throwing out someone trying to stretch a single into a double.  Most above average fielders will get to more balls thus giving them more chances for either putouts or assists.

Sure picks are great and so are foul tips but how many of those plays are way too easy?  I played community college ball and there is a lot to be said for a great defensive 1B for sure.  But making the throw and the fielding play on an assist is worth more in my books.  Just my 2 cents.  Chances double for an error.  That is why best athletes play up the middle for great defence.
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Jss0062

  • Guest
Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #38 on: October 11, 2013, 06:51:30 PM »
I think Assists should be worth slightly more than putouts as catching a ball compared with catching at throwing multiplies the chance of error by double.

Or maybe we normalize the assists like you have shown and then lessen the putouts by a certain percentage?

Nice work!

I view them as equal.  A good defensive first baseman saves a lot of errors from the other infielders with his ability to make difficult picks, in those cases the putout is often the more difficult part of that play, same goes for catchers who are above average at catching foul tip 3rd strikes.  This goes for outfielders too, the guys who get better reads on balls and have better speed catch more balls than those who don't thus giving them more putouts and less chance of throwing out someone trying to stretch a single into a double.  Most above average fielders will get to more balls thus giving them more chances for either putouts or assists. 
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yahoolando

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Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #37 on: October 11, 2013, 06:22:59 PM »
I think Assists should be worth slightly more than putouts as catching a ball compared with catching at throwing multiplies the chance of error by double.

Or maybe we normalize the assists like you have shown and then lessen the putouts by a certain percentage?

Nice work!
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Jss0062

  • Guest
Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #36 on: October 11, 2013, 06:11:43 PM »
Here are my recommendations to make assists and putouts equal and to normalize for position.

First to equalize assists to putouts you would need to multiply .2 by 2.67 this gives you .534.
 
Theoretically every position would get 11.1% of the chances, to normalize this to position you divide 11.1 by the assist and putout percentage.   When you do this you get with the pitchers as an example the assist ratio is 1.00 and putout ratio is 5.54 (numbers are rounded to 2 decimal points for final numbers only). The next step is to multiply the ratio to the points per, again for pitchers this would give you .53 points per assist and 1.11 per putout.   To check you multiply the points per by the total and you come up with an equal amount of points available for all positions for both assists and putouts.

So here goes.   PPA = Points per assist      PPP = Points per putout

Position             PPA               PPP

Pitcher              .531              1.109
Catcher           1.124             0.086
First Base        0.903             0.070
Second Base   0.210             0.316
Third Base       0.316             0.890
Shortstop        0.209             0.405
Left Field        10.463            0.317
Center Field   12.306            0.235
Right Field       9.500             0.299












 
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yahoolando

  • Guest
Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #35 on: October 11, 2013, 05:39:20 PM »
Here are the raw numbers of putouts and assists for seasons 2009-2013.
I couldn't find by position stats for the other five years, 5 seasons does give a solid sample size.
Recommendations will follow in a separate post.

There were 2.67 times as many putouts as assists

Position     Assists %    Putout %

Pitcher        11.2%          2.0%
Catcher        5.3%         25.8%
First             6.6%         31.8%
Second       28.2%         7.0%
Third           18.8%         2.5%
Short          28.3%         5.5%
Left             0.6%           7.0%
Center        0.5%           9.4%
Right           0.6%           7.4%

Nice work Jeremy!  Assists translates into more chance of error as there are two things you need to do, catch and throw whereas a putout is only one.

This is good stuff.  We will definitely update this for next season somehow.
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Jss0062

  • Guest
Re: Need New Scoring System
« Reply #34 on: October 11, 2013, 05:27:31 PM »
Here are the raw numbers of putouts and assists for seasons 2009-2013.
I couldn't find by position stats for the other five years, 5 seasons does give a solid sample size.
Recommendations will follow in a separate post.

There were 2.67 times as many putouts as assists

Position     Assists %    Putout %

Pitcher        11.2%          2.0%
Catcher        5.3%         25.8%
First             6.6%         31.8%
Second       28.2%         7.0%
Third           18.8%         2.5%
Short          28.3%         5.5%
Left             0.6%           7.0%
Center        0.5%           9.4%
Right           0.6%           7.4%

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