ProFSL: Pro Fantasy Sports Leagues
Fantasy Leagues => Dynasty NHL => NHL Leagues => Dynasty NHL: Archive => Topic started by: SlackJack on February 17, 2018, 01:37:30 PM
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Just for fun.
I often wonder what it would be like to use actual cap values in a league. How would that work and what kind of effect would it have? I imagine that it would be fascinating to follow the actual contract status of players in real-time, knowing that my fantasy roster is going to be impacted. How much more on-going engagement would there be, or would there be any change on that front at all? Maybe for some, probably the opposite for others.
I am not at all saying we should do this, but I am curious to know what other people think and if they have any experience in leagues like this.
While comparing contract numbers (using Winnipeg's team as the example) I was struck by just how close the numbers are on the whole. NHL values in Red.
C Matt Duchene, $5.9m (2017-2018) $6m (2018-19)
C Brayden Point, $0.5m (P-18/19) $0.7m (2018-19)
C Eric Staal, $3.4m (2018-2019) $3.5m (2018-19)
C T.J. Oshie, $5.6m (2020-2021) $5.8m (2024-25)
C Tyler Toffoli, $5.3m (2020-2021) $4.6m (2019-20)
C Nathan Mackinnon, $3.5m (2020-2021) $6.3m (2022-23)
C Alexander Wennberg, $3.5m (2021-2022) $4.9m (2022-23)
C Marko Dano, $0.2m (P-17/18) $0.9m (2018-19)
C Joshua Ho-Sang, $0.5m (P-n/a) $0.9m (2018-19)
D Connor Carrick, $0.9m (2018-2019) $0.8m (2017-18)
D Justin Braun, $0.9m (2018-2019) $3.8m (2019-20)
D Matt Niskanen, $4m (2018-2019) $5.8m (2020-21)
D Drew Doughty, $4m (2018-2019) $7.0m (2019-20)
D John Carlson, $4.3m (2019-2020) $4.0m (2017-18)
D Deryk Engelland, $0.9m (2017-2018) $1.0m (2017-18) $1.5m (2018-19)
X-D Jacob Trouba, IR, $2m this year $2.8m (2017-18)
D Brayden McNabb, $0.9m (2018-2019) $1.7m (2017-18) $2.5m (2021-22)
D Andreas Borgman, $0.9m (2018-2019) $0.9m (2018-2019)
D Damon Severson, $0.9m (2017-2018) $4.2m (2022-23)
F Michal Kempny, $0.9m (2017-2018) $0.9m (2017-2018)
G Jonathan Quick, $6.5m (2017-2018) $5.8m (2022-23)
G Carey Price, $6.1m (2021-2022) $6.5m (2017-18) $10.5m (2024-25)
G Matthew Murray, $0.5m (P-18/19) $3.8m (2019-20)
LW Kevin Fiala, $0.5m (P-18/19) $0.9m (2018-2019)
LW Tanner Pearson, $2.8m (2021-2022) $3.8m (2020-21)
LW Gabriel Landeskog, $5m (2018-2019) $5.6m (2020-21)
LW Conor Sheary, $1.1m (2017-2018) $3m (2019-20)
RW Patrick Kane, $5.3m (2019-2020) $10.5m (2022-23)
RW Richard Panik, $0.9m (2017-2018) $5.5m (2018-19)
RW Adrian Kempe, $0.5m (P-n/a) $0.9m (2018-2019)
RW Ondrej Kase, $1.5m (2018-2019) $0.7m (2017-18)
Note that I used Hockey Buzz to find the average Cap hit (not the actual salary) and that values are rounded.
Another take-away is that while most of the contract values (salary, not term) are quite similar, the ones that are not are significantly different. Usually being far cheaper in DNHL. In fact the only NHL contract that is less expensive is for Johnathan Quick with a difference that is marginal.
I have highlighted the biggest differences in bold. While a player like Carey Price may be more valuable to his team in real life, and Damon Severson or Richard Panik may be simply over-paid, I am leaning towards calling these contracts a steal.
One more angle I'm thinking about is how these individual contract values compare to their respective over-all salary caps. An NHL roster is 23 players with a total cap ceiling of $75m, or roughly $3.3m per roster slot. For us that would equate to a cap of $99m for 30 roster slots, if we were using actual salaries. But given that our cap at $81.1m is 18% lower than that projection, it totally bears-out that we should also have fantasy contracts that are generally smaller, including the odd "steal".
I bet that the top performers in our league have more of this type of contract! Obviously, return on investment has to be a key consideration going in to our extension period and it would be fruitful not to deviate too far from actual NHL values. In my other league I am always happy to sign players for less than they get in real life and I know that a players value to a team is often reflected in their cap hit. (Jake Guentzel $734,167 2018-19) - Just saying.
At the end of the day, while I think it would be super-interesting to use actual contract values, DNHL's contracts are simple and fairly close to the mark.
I will compare more teams when I have time. Again, just for fun.
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Wow. Great stuff! I am encouraged to see how close we are. At inception we went below the nhl cap due to the decreased cost of prospects here. I wonder if that 18% figure aligns with the aggregate difference of the contracts that are highlights, league-wide. If those figures are close then I'll be pretty happy about where we're at on this. Especially with all the adjustments we've made to the cap equation over the years. It tells me we're making the right decisions.
I think using real contracts in a league like this is a very interesting idea. I've never seen a league run like that. It would have been hard for us in 2011 before the NHL fixed their long-term contract structure (someone would have been stuck with Kovies 21 year contract, lol). Very interesting. Thanks Slack!
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Slack if you decide to dig deeper I can send you the league spreadsheet. Might be easier to mine through that instead of the roster pages.
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Slack if you decide to dig deeper I can send you the league spreadsheet. Might be easier to mine through that instead of the roster pages.
I'm just on a new project starting with 21 straight 10 hour days. So probably won't dig much further til later in the Summer. Maybe I'll hit you up after contracts roll over.
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That said I have a little time now to start poking holes, starting with the St. Louis Blues. This is a model of miserly efficient cap management! Practically every contract is at a bargain but I'll highlight them all anyway. It should be pointed out that further value has been added through cash transactions. Specifically Koivu and I think Voracek are free or nearly free.
C Mikko Koivu, $5.4m (2018-2019) $6.8m (2017-18) $5.5m (2019-20)
C Andrew Copp, $0.9m (2018-2019) $1.0m (2018-19)
X-C Robby Fabbri, LTIR, $0.2m (P-17/18), $m this year $0.9m (2017-18)
C Valtteri Filppula, $0.5m (2017-2018) $5m (2017-18)
C Sean Couturier, $2.2m (2018-2019) $4.3m (2021-22)
C Leo Komarov, $4.2m (2018-2019) $3m (2017-18)
C Aleksander Barkov, $4.2m (2020-2021) $5.9m (2021-22)
C Sean Monahan, $4.8m (2020-2021) $6.4m (2022-23)
C Dylan Larkin, $0.2m (P-17/18) $0.9m (2017-18)
C Nick Bonino, $0.5m (2017-2018) $4.1m (2020-21)
D Mark Giordano, $4.6m (2018-2019) $6.8m (2021-22)
D Shea Weber, $5m (2017-2018) $7.9m (2024-25)
D Roman Josi, $4.6m (2018-2019) $4.0m (2019-20)
D Alex Pietrangelo, $4m (2019-2020) $6.5m (2019-20)
D Victor Hedman, $4.6m (2017-2018) $7.9m (2024-25)
X-D Kevin Shattenkirk, IR, $4.3m this year $6.7m (2020-21)
D Jonas Brodin, $2m (2019-2020) $4.2m (2020-21)
D Brandon Montour, $0.5m (P-n/a) $0.9m (2017-18)
G Henrik Lundqvist, $6.9m (2017-2018) $8.5m (2020-21)
G Jake Allen, $3.3m (2021-2022) $4.4m (2020-21)
G Connor Hellebuyck, $0.5m (P-18/19) $2.3m (2017-18)
LW Jaden Schwartz, $3.5m (2019-2020) $5.4m (2020-21)
LW Jonathan Huberdeau, $2.3m (2019-2020) $5.9m (2022-23)
LW Sven Baertschi, $0.9m (2017-2018) $1.9m (2017-18)
LW Jason Zucker, $1m (2017-2018) $2m (2017-18)
LW Kyle Connor, $0.5m (P-n/a) $0.9m (2017-18)
RW Jakub Voracek, $5.3m (2019-2020) $8.3m (2023-24)
RW Justin Williams, $0.9m (2017-2018) $4.5m (2018-19)
RW Cal Clutterbuck, $1.8m (2017-2018) $3.5m (2021-22)
RW Kyle Okposo, $4m (2018-2019) $6m (2022-23)
RW Vladimir Tarasenko, $6m (2020-2021) $7.5m (2022-23)
RW Nino Niederreiter, $2m (2018-2019) $5.3m (2021-22)
There is no real precision to my analysis here. It's more of an intuitive thing for me than an actual applied methodology. Very generally I think my criteria for highlighting a deeply discounted contract is anything that looks to be more than 20% less than the NHL with a minimum difference of $1.0m.
Not sure why I've chosen this approach. Kyle Connor is almost half-price but I haven't highlighted the contract as it's only a $400k difference. Jason Zucker on the other hand gets my attention for the $1m difference. Henrik Lundqvist is $1.6m cheaper in DNHL, but the contract is within 20%. Jake Allen on the other hand is 25% cheaper etc.
If I were more consistent (and bothered with the math) I'd likely just look at the percentage difference and end up highlighting another 4 of the remaining 10 that are not highlighted. Whatever, the point here is that last years champion was built by relentlessly finding value!
I'd love to dig deeper but if anyone else wants to run with this please do!
:toast:
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Wow... all that value is sickening! At least I see a lot of expiring contracts.
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Wow... all that value is sickening! At least I see a lot of expiring contracts.
Sickening? That's a little harsh.
Allen is only that cheap because he was extended on a prospect contract along with the discount for the prognosticator award last year.
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Just for fun.
I often wonder what it would be like to use actual cap values in a league. How would that work and what kind of effect would it have? I imagine that it would be fascinating to follow the actual contract status of players in real-time, knowing that my fantasy roster is going to be impacted. How much more on-going engagement would there be, or would there be any change on that front at all? Maybe for some, probably the opposite for others.
I am not at all saying we should do this, but I am curious to know what other people think and if they have any experience in leagues like this.
While comparing contract numbers (using Winnipeg's team as the example) I was struck by just how close the numbers are on the whole. NHL values in Red.
C Matt Duchene, $5.9m (2017-2018) $6m (2018-19)
C Brayden Point, $0.5m (P-18/19) $0.7m (2018-19)
C Eric Staal, $3.4m (2018-2019) $3.5m (2018-19)
C T.J. Oshie, $5.6m (2020-2021) $5.8m (2024-25)
C Tyler Toffoli, $5.3m (2020-2021) $4.6m (2019-20)
C Nathan Mackinnon, $3.5m (2020-2021) $6.3m (2022-23)
C Alexander Wennberg, $3.5m (2021-2022) $4.9m (2022-23)
C Marko Dano, $0.2m (P-17/18) $0.9m (2018-19)
C Joshua Ho-Sang, $0.5m (P-n/a) $0.9m (2018-19)
D Connor Carrick, $0.9m (2018-2019) $0.8m (2017-18)
D Justin Braun, $0.9m (2018-2019) $3.8m (2019-20)
D Matt Niskanen, $4m (2018-2019) $5.8m (2020-21)
D Drew Doughty, $4m (2018-2019) $7.0m (2019-20)
D John Carlson, $4.3m (2019-2020) $4.0m (2017-18)
D Deryk Engelland, $0.9m (2017-2018) $1.0m (2017-18) $1.5m (2018-19)
X-D Jacob Trouba, IR, $2m this year $2.8m (2017-18)
D Brayden McNabb, $0.9m (2018-2019) $1.7m (2017-18) $2.5m (2021-22)
D Andreas Borgman, $0.9m (2018-2019) $0.9m (2018-2019)
D Damon Severson, $0.9m (2017-2018) $4.2m (2022-23)
F Michal Kempny, $0.9m (2017-2018) $0.9m (2017-2018)
G Jonathan Quick, $6.5m (2017-2018) $5.8m (2022-23)
G Carey Price, $6.1m (2021-2022) $6.5m (2017-18) $10.5m (2024-25)
G Matthew Murray, $0.5m (P-18/19) $3.8m (2019-20)
LW Kevin Fiala, $0.5m (P-18/19) $0.9m (2018-2019)
LW Tanner Pearson, $2.8m (2021-2022) $3.8m (2020-21)
LW Gabriel Landeskog, $5m (2018-2019) $5.6m (2020-21)
LW Conor Sheary, $1.1m (2017-2018) $3m (2019-20)
RW Patrick Kane, $5.3m (2019-2020) $10.5m (2022-23)
RW Richard Panik, $0.9m (2017-2018) $5.5m (2018-19)
RW Adrian Kempe, $0.5m (P-n/a) $0.9m (2018-2019)
RW Ondrej Kase, $1.5m (2018-2019) $0.7m (2017-18)
Note that I used Hockey Buzz to find the average Cap hit (not the actual salary) and that values are rounded.
Another take-away is that while most of the contract values (salary, not term) are quite similar, the ones that are not are significantly different. Usually being far cheaper in DNHL. In fact the only NHL contract that is less expensive is for Johnathan Quick with a difference that is marginal.
I have highlighted the biggest differences in bold. While a player like Carey Price may be more valuable to his team in real life, and Damon Severson or Richard Panik may be simply over-paid, I am leaning towards calling these contracts a steal.
One more angle I'm thinking about is how these individual contract values compare to their respective over-all salary caps. An NHL roster is 23 players with a total cap ceiling of $75m, or roughly $3.3m per roster slot. For us that would equate to a cap of $99m for 30 roster slots, if we were using actual salaries. But given that our cap at $81.1m is 18% lower than that projection, it totally bears-out that we should also have fantasy contracts that are generally smaller, including the odd "steal".
I bet that the top performers in our league have more of this type of contract! Obviously, return on investment has to be a key consideration going in to our extension period and it would be fruitful not to deviate too far from actual NHL values. In my other league I am always happy to sign players for less than they get in real life and I know that a players value to a team is often reflected in their cap hit. (Jake Guentzel $734,167 2018-19) - Just saying.
At the end of the day, while I think it would be super-interesting to use actual contract values, DNHL's contracts are simple and fairly close to the mark.
I will compare more teams when I have time. Again, just for fun.
I added up the contracts for DHL and the nhl for your team and there is a huge difference. 77.9M to 113.5M
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Sickening? That's a little harsh.
Allen is only that cheap because he was extended on a prospect contract along with the discount for the prognosticator award last year.
Maybe too harsh an adjective. I'm just expressing my jealousy :)
You've done an amazing job man!
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I added up the contracts for DHL and the nhl for your team and there is a huge difference. 77.9M to 113.5M
So a loaded 30 player roster that's almost under the NHL's actual salary cap. Need more comparables....and as Rob said, would be good to get the aggregate.
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Hurricanes: 80.8m DNHL Salary vs 108.2m in NHL Salary
C Anze Kopitar, $8.3m (2020-2021) 10M (2023-24)
C John Tavares, $8.3m (2021-2022) 5.5m (2017-18)
C Atrem Anisimov, $3.5m (2018-2019) 4.6m (2020-21)
C Colton Sissons, $0.9m (2018-2019) .6m (2018-19)
C Elias Lindholm, $2.3m (2020-2021) 2.7m (2017-18)
C Derek Ryan, $0.9m (2018-2019) 1.4m (2017-18)
D Jeff Petry, $1.3m (2017-2018) 5.5m (2020-21)
D Justin Faulk, $2m (2018-2019) 4.8m (2019-20)
D Ryan Murphy, $0.5m (2018-2019) .7m (2017-18)
D Dougie Hamilton, $2.5m (2019-2020) 5.8m (2020-21)
D Jared Spurgeon, $3.8m (2020-2021) 5.2m (2019-20)
D John Klingberg, $6m (2018-2019) 4.3m (2021-22)
D Seth Jones, $2m (2020-2021) 5.4m (2021-22)
D Ryan Pulock, $0.5m (P-n/a) .9m (2017-18)
D Victor Mete, $0.9m (2018-2019) .7m (2019-20)
G Marc-Andre Fleury, $6.3m (2019-2020) 5.8m (2018-19)
G John Gibson, $0.2m (P-17/18) 2.3m (2018-19)
G Scott Wedgewood, $0.5m (P-n/a) .7m (2017-18)
G Andrew Hammond, $0.2m (P-17/18) 1.4m (2017-18)
LW James Neal, $6.8m (2021-2022) 5m (2017-18)
LW Brendan Perlini, $2.7m (2018-2019) .9m (2018-19)
LW Johnny Gaudreau, $4.8m (2021-2022) 6.8m (2021-22)
LW Pat Maroon, $2m (2020-2021) 2m (2017-18)
RW Marian Gaborik, $0.5m (2018-2019) 4.9m (2020-21)
RW Phil Kessel, $5.6m (2019-2020) 8m (2021-22)
RW Brett Ritchie, $0.2m (P-18/19) 1.8m (2018-19)
RW Cam Atkinson, $2m (2019-2020) 5.9m (2022-23)
RW Brent Burns, $5.9m (2020-2021) 8m (2022-23)
RW Bryan Rust, $0.9m (2018-2019) .6m (2017-18)
Broad stroke differences between us and the NHL is that our d-man contracts were purposefully handcuffed like 30% maybe 40% since we don't pay for defense. Our prospect contracts really exacerbate that difference to NHL salaries. We also don't have 10 year contracts that end up haunting teams, so a guy like Gaborik is almost never going to make 4.9m into his late 30s. Also, our contracts are based on production. There can be only (1) #1 center in our league per year, so a guy like Kopitar is the NHL King's #1 center so he gets 10m a year, but he would have to be the entire DNHL's #1 center to get that kind of contract.
If you adjust for our reduced dman contracts my team looks like DNHL Salary of 80.8m vs NHL Salary of 95.81
Then my team is loaded with prospect dman contracts so that is another 30% off some DNHL Salary of 80.8m vs NHL Salary of 85.8m (6% difference)
Overall I would say that the NHL has changed since we instituted the 5 year prospect contract in that they are giving out more money to younger players. Since our prospect contracts act like a current NHL "bridge deal" we might want to knock a couple years off that 5 if we are trying to keep right on with the big league.
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Overall I would say that the NHL has changed since we instituted the 5 year prospect contract in that they are giving out more money to younger players. Since our prospect contracts act like a current NHL "bridge deal" we might want to knock a couple years off that 5 if we are trying to keep right on with the big league.
I would tend to agree with maybe making the prospect extension discount exactly like a bridge deal, maybe over 3 years instead of 5.
While I'm certainly not complaining that my own roster has guys like Scheifele under $5m, and Kucherov at $4m on long-term deals, I think having to re-sign those guys now would make the rest of my team watered down a bit.
I'm pretty sure that would go for everyone.
Maybe some bigger fish FA's hit the open market, especially Centers given their higher extension values.
Which...I think would be good for the league. Yes it sucks losing great players to FA because you can't/don't want to re-sign them to $7m/year deals, but the more of those guys there are in FA, maybe the crazy contracts won't be handed out that can cripple a team
ie. Jake Guentzel for over $10m per year for 5 years...yikes. Or (sorry Rob) Anders Nilsson at $5m or Colton Paryako at/close the #1 D-man extension value at $5m.
Now I know Paryako was a mid-season FA bidding war, but still.
However, maybe what happens is a Scheifele in FA gets $13m a year if Guentzel is getting $10m. So that suggestion might be a moot point for a team (like Slack this year, PIT last year) who has a bank vault worth of cap space.
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So that suggestion might be a moot point for a team (like Slack this year, PIT last year) who has a bank vault worth of cap space.
I'm saving that cap space for my own extensions to be honest. Admittedly that kicking the bankroll a ways down the road, but my approach is to generally avoid Free Agency. Every once in a while you can snag an under-appreciated player but more often than not it's just sheer madness!