Drew's Annual Oilers Write Up

[Drew]

As many of your know, I am a die hard Oilers fan. I have been through all the modern ups and downs. Watching during the average years of the early 2000s, seeing the cup run of 2006, and continuing to watch through the dark ages from 2007-2016. Over the past 9 years, since the 1st round selection of Sam Gagner, the team has been stuck in the basement of the NHL. I have been trying to figure out what went wrong or why the Oilers with their plethora of high draft picks have not been able to turn their fortunes. I have not been able to come to this realization until reading Eric Belanger's opinions on the team after having played there.
The Oilers have two problems and neither have to do with talent on their team at any position.
1) The Oilers needs an identity change. This can come in two ways; trades and free agency. You are not going to build your identity through a draft, you can add talent but not build a championship team by "only drafting". The Oilers will need to build on the best talent they currently have and build around them. Which may mean that they have to cut ties with some highly talented players but as the old saying goes "addition by subtraction". Team chemistry is something that wins championships and needs to be a key when rebuilding the new Oilers. Another big thing that the article addressed was that Oilers management keep trying to bring in character players that are fringe NHLers where what they need are top veterans who have been there who the current players respect. I believe this could be a huge change if the Oilers are able to land a player or two like this.
2) The Oilers need to draft better. I know this seems ridiculous to say given their draft position but after the 1st round of the draft, where most players are well known, the Oilers have rarely hit on the "gems". Those that have any value in the 2nd round and beyond, no longer even play for the Oilers. If you look at the Oilers that made the cup final in 2006, they had many "gems". Brodziak (7th round, 2003), Stoll (2nd round, 2002), Greene (2nd round, 2002), Horcoff (4th round, 1998), Pisani (8th round, 1996). The Oilers still had their primary talent in Hemsky, Peca, Pronger and Smyth but these role players were homegrown. Homegrown talent is essential but it isn't a one or the other option. If you look at the two current Stanley Cup Finalists, they have many homegrown talents but were able to build around them with other pieces as well.

Going into next season the Oilers own the 4th overall pick and whether they keep that pick or not is not going to be known until after the draft on June 24th. Keeping the pick would send into motion a complete re-vamping of the team, trading the pick depending on what they trade for or whether they trade down can send the team in a completely different direction.

So here was the roster to end the 2015-16 season.
Left Wings                       Centers                                           Right Wings
Taylor Hall ($6.0m)          Connor McDavid ($0.9m)                  Jordan Eberle ($6.0m)
Beniot Pouliot ($4.0m)     Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.0m)          Leon Draisaitl ($0.9m)                       
Patrick Maroon ($1.5m)    Mark Letestu ($1.8m)                      Nail Yakupov ($2.5m)
Lauri Korpikoski ($2.5m)  Matt Hendricks ($1.9m)                    Zack Kassian ($1.5m)               
Adam Cracknell (UFA)      Anton Lander ($1.0m)   

Defensemen
Andrej Sekera ($5.5m)             Darnell Nurse ($0.9m)
Mark Fayne ($3.6m)                 Eric Gryba (UFA)
Jordan Oesterle (RFA)              Griffin Reinhart ($0.9m)
Oscar Klefbom ($4.2m)            Brandon Davidson ($1.4m)
Adam Clendening (RFA)

Goalies
Cam Talbot ($4.2m)
Laurent Brossoit ($0.8m)

Here is where I think the roster should be at next year. This is assuming that the Oilers keep the pick and select Matthew Tkachuk (and that he returns to the OHL for the 2016-17 season). I am also just doing the opening day roster and not doing any extra spots other than the depth that will remain on the roster after all the potential moves.

Left Wings                       Centers                                Right Wings
Taylor Hall ($6.0m)          Connor McDavid ($0.9m)        Jordan Eberle ($6.0m)
Andrew Ladd ($7.0m)          Leon Draisaitl ($0.9m)        Troy Brouwer ($4.5m)
Patrick Maroon ($1.5m)    Mark Letestu ($1.8m)            Zack Kassian ($1.5m)         
Anton Lander ($1.0m)    Matt Hendricks ($1.9m)          Chris Stewart ($1.5m)                                   
Anton Slepyshev ($0.9m)       

Defensemen
Andrej Sekera ($5.5m)             Kevin Shattenkirk ($4.3m)
Oscar Klefbom ($4.2m)            Zdeno Chara ($6.5m)   
Mark Fayne ($3.6m)                 Darnell Nurse ($0.9m)
Griffin Reinhart ($0.9m)           Brandon Davidson ($1.4m)
Jordan Oesterle ($1.0m)

Goalies
Cam Talbot ($4.2m)
Laurent Brossoit ($0.8m)

Departures
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.0m)
Lauri Korpikoski ($2.5m)
Beniot Pouliot ($4.0m)
Nail Yakupov ($2.5m)
Adam Cracknell (UFA)
Eric Gryba (UFA)
Adam Clendening (RFA)

Trade #1
Bruins are a new start for Yakupov as they are in the middle of a "rebuild" themselves. Oilers also sent Pouliot in this deal to make cap even up. We pick up Chara to teach the new group till the end of his contract (2 years).

Trade #2
Lauri Korpikoski is sent back to Phoenix for a 4th round pick. He no longer fits the scheme of what is happening in Edmonton.

Trade #3
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is sent to St. Louis for Kevin Shattenkirk. St. Louis has some big decisions around possible free agents this summer and the addition of RNH could be cheaper then re-signing Backes. Edmonton get a solid puck-mover although he is in the last year of his contract.

Free Agent Signings
1 - Ladd is signed as that top end veteran who can lead the team. He receives a 4 year deal at $7.0m per year. He becomes the highest paid player on the team and will be a respected leader for this new look team. 4 years is too much but that is what is going to be required to land him.
2 - Brouwer is signed as that solid option throughout the lineup. He receives a 3 year deal at $4.5m.
3 - Stewart is signed as a good bottom six forward. He receives a 2 year deal at $1.5m.
4 - Oesterle is signed on another 2 way contract for 2 years at $1.0m.

Overall cap hits - around $67m with the projected cap around $74m

Summary - Someone had to go from the core of Edmonton players. I still think Eberle could be gone as well but if Hopkins could fetch Shattenkirk then Eberle may stick around for next season. The Yakupov-Pouliot for Chara trade is simply to build that culture. Chara isn't the exact same player as he was before and is 39 but can give that leadership and help build the identity and ironically his contract expires exactly when McDavid will be due for a new contract. The free agent signings are brought in to also build that culture. Ladd will instantly take the leadership role here. Brouwer is a solid player who is a winner and has played on great teams throughout the past years. Shattenkirk is brought in to be the #1 defensemen and a good compliment to either Sekera or Klefbom. I love the line of Maroon-Kassian-Letestu as they will simply just grind out other teams. Tkachuk is brought up slowly and makes the roster in 2018-19. 

Let me know what you think! Am I a huge dreamer? Well ya but why not dream.

[Rob]

Would love to see that Bruins trade.

[Tyler]

Would love to see that Bruins trade.

My thoughts exactly..... Bruins need the cap flex and even though the back end would be OH SO AWFUL, it helps long term and gives B's money to get a Dman.

I think the STL trade would be a hard one to envision, I think rather than pay RNH $6M they would just re-up their Captain.

I think is LAK doesn't sign Lucic, he would be a PRIME target for EDM and Chiarelli. Rather than sign Ladd, imagine Lucic riding shotgun to McDavid, it would be pretty lethal combo.

[Tony]

Hall for just Larsson?  Were the Oilers that desperate?

Don't get me wrong this helps the back end but at that price?

[Rob]

Peter Chiarelli has now traded both Seguin and Hall.  And he's gotten hosed on both deals.   

[Tony]

Hall for just Larsson?  Were the Oilers that desperate?

Don't get me wrong this helps the back end but at that price?

im guessing he has a plan in place to pick up some players in FA to replace the loss of Hall. 

[Tony]

Peter Chiarelli has now traded both Seguin and Hall.  And he's gotten hosed on both deals.   

Yes but going to wait and see what else he does in the next few weeks before I judge the move.  Lol

[favo_zomg]

I feel like there is some hope that the deal is not a complete flop. Sure, he SHOULD have obtained more, but how many right shot dmen are available? And how many of them are around the same age as your core?

I feel that this is a deal the Oilers will not regret.

[Rob]

Yes but going to wait and see what else he does in the next few weeks before I judge the move.  Lol

I don't think any subsequent moves will qualify the trade.  Bottom line he should have, and could have, got more in return for Hall.  Same with Seguin - even moreso. 

[Drew]

I don't think any subsequent moves will qualify the trade.  Bottom line he should have, and could have, got more in return for Hall.  Same with Seguin - even moreso.

Letting it set in but horrible trade still. Larsson is a decent defensemen but Hall is a top 10 player in the league, top 5 if your looking at 5 on 5 numbers.
It is just mind boggling that you couldn't get more but a player of Halls caliber. Even Chiralle in the announcement was unsure of how this trade happened.
Hopefully we can figure this out but not sure if Lucic can solve that offense going out.