DNHL Prospect Extensions

[GypsieDeathBringer]

I brought this up last year to bring us more in line with the way the NHL is giving out contracts, and maybe I should wait until the bulk of the NHL RFAs sign this year to make a conclusion, but I think our 70% is really undervaluing these players now.  It was pretty spot on up until last year with Matthews, Eichel, McDavid, Nylander, Larkin, Draisaitl, etc. signing their deals.  Those players are making half as much in our league as they are in the NHL, and it might make sense if after their DNHL deal was up their next contract paid them 250% to make up for it, but that isn't even possible with some of these guys.  McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel can't make 17m a year to make up for what they made in the prospect extension.  Nylander, Larkin, Ehlers, and the other RFAs that took 5 year NHL deals are just straight up making half as much in our league.

I'm thinking like a 10-15% discount would work out if we are trying to keep a hometown feel to the teams. 

[SlackJack]

I brought this up last year to bring us more in line with the way the NHL is giving out contracts, and maybe I should wait until the bulk of the NHL RFAs sign this year to make a conclusion, but I think our 70% is really undervaluing these players now.  It was pretty spot on up until last year with Matthews, Eichel, McDavid, Nylander, Larkin, Draisaitl, etc. signing their deals.  Those players are making half as much in our league as they are in the NHL, and it might make sense if after their DNHL deal was up their next contract paid them 250% to make up for it, but that isn't even possible with some of these guys.  McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel can't make 17m a year to make up for what they made in the prospect extension.  Nylander, Larkin, Ehlers, and the other RFAs that took 5 year NHL deals are just straight up making half as much in our league.

I'm thinking like a 10-15% discount would work out if we are trying to keep a hometown feel to the teams.

That's pretty radical.

[WestCoastExpress]

I brought this up last year to bring us more in line with the way the NHL is giving out contracts, and maybe I should wait until the bulk of the NHL RFAs sign this year to make a conclusion, but I think our 70% is really undervaluing these players now.  It was pretty spot on up until last year with Matthews, Eichel, McDavid, Nylander, Larkin, Draisaitl, etc. signing their deals.  Those players are making half as much in our league as they are in the NHL, and it might make sense if after their DNHL deal was up their next contract paid them 250% to make up for it, but that isn't even possible with some of these guys.  McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel can't make 17m a year to make up for what they made in the prospect extension.  Nylander, Larkin, Ehlers, and the other RFAs that took 5 year NHL deals are just straight up making half as much in our league.

I'm thinking like a 10-15% discount would work out if we are trying to keep a hometown feel to the teams.

I'd support it, given the price of normal extensions is also so high

I mean as it stands, we get prospect players regardless of #1 overall or a 6th rounder at $0.5m per year, for what, 2-3 years? And then another 5 years on top of that at a significantly decreased price point? That is a lot of years at a cheap price.

Look at Marner coming off his ELC and will now get north of $10m per year, in his year-4 season.

I mean, hey, by all means I am all in to hold off on this thought for 2 years on this because next off-season I've got a bunch of guys expiring, haha, but I think overall it would be a good thing to do.

[jmtrops]

thats a valid point if DNHL is trying to mirror the NHL. My understanding is that we are not, but I am all for being closer to real life. To do that though there are a bunch of things that would need to change also.

[SlackJack]

thats a valid point if DNHL is trying to mirror the NHL. My understanding is that we are not, but I am all for being closer to real life. To do that though there are a bunch of things that would need to change also.

Agree, we're not trying to mirror. Prospect discount exists in part to give the bottom feeders a somewhat increased chance to become competitive quicker. It's a small advantage as the bottom teams can warehouse more prospects in bulk but the top tier teams get to use it too.

It comes up every year... I think there was a lengthy thread on this along with offer sheets and such.

[shooter47]

I don't think you will ever get DNHL to match the exact realism of the NHL. The NHL has 31 teams with a salary cap of 81.5 million (2.5265 Billion Dollars in potential total salary). DNHL has 20 teams with an 87m salary cap (1.74 Billion Dollars in potential salary). That means that the NHL has 45% more salary to spend.

The NHL has 31 teams that each can have a roster of 23 players (713 total roster spots). DNHL on the other hand has 20 teams with 30 roster spots. That means that the NHL has about 19% more players possible then DNHL.

2.5265 Billion divided by 713 roster spots means there is on average $3.45 million for every roster spot in the NHL. 1.740 Billion divided by 600 roster spots gets us an average of $2.9 million for every roster spot in DNHL.

With all the differences I don't think you will ever get it to match exactly. The NHL pays some defensive defensemen a lot of money because they have value to them while they don't have nearly the same value in our league (Vlasic, Seabrook, Johnson).  This raises the price of defensemen extensions in the league (Although this was addressed with the 33% reduction in resign values compared to actual contracts).

Younger players having more bargaining power in the current NHL system and are getting better deals because of it. This is a change in the NHL that has only happened recently. Mackinnon, Barkov, Klingberg, Seth Jones, Ekholm, Schiefele are just a few of the players who are on great long term discount contracts in the real NHL. As younger players sign for higher values our re-sign values will also naturally increase.

[GypsieDeathBringer]

We don't need to match the NHL to a T, but our salary cap and resign values are pulled from the NHL, so when star players are making half as much in our league it is irksome to me only because they contribute greatly to a teams production and thus have great value.  The only contracts that are really different in our league than the NHL are defensive players and that is because defense has no value in our league, so we don't pay for it.  Conor McDavid does have value as the best center in our league for 3 years.  His value was set in the NHL to be 12.5m a year and we are paying him 7.4m.  A huge difference for the huge level of production he brings to our league.

If the difference was paying Marc-Edward Vlasic .9m a year in DNHL vs 7m a year in the NHL that doesn't really matter because he doesn't produce in our league and has relatively little value.  Nobody would be gaining vast amounts of high level cheap production with him. 

[WestCoastExpress]

We don't need to match the NHL to a T, but our salary cap and resign values are pulled from the NHL, so when star players are making half as much in our league it is irksome to me only because they contribute greatly to a teams production and thus have great value.  The only contracts that are really different in our league than the NHL are defensive players and that is because defense has no value in our league, so we don't pay for it.  Conor McDavid does have value as the best center in our league for 3 years.  His value was set in the NHL to be 12.5m a year and we are paying him 7.4m.  A huge difference for the huge level of production he brings to our league.

If the difference was paying Marc-Edward Vlasic .9m a year in DNHL vs 7m a year in the NHL that doesn't really matter because he doesn't produce in our league and has relatively little value.  Nobody would be gaining vast amounts of high level cheap production with him.

 

Agreed with everything said. Top D are only what, just over $5m, and then downwards from there. So it would even put the high forward contracts. No $9mnfor PK or $10m for Karlsson or $8m for a Trouba in this league.

[izaman3]

I would be ok with a 15%, 4 year prospect discount with a minimum value of $3m.

I would also be ok with bumping up the extension values of the top 10 D a little bit and leaving the rest similar to where they are.

I think it's important that we keep having these conversations about the health/improvement of the league, we monitor the general cap situation in the league, as well as general parity (keeping in mind there will also be rebuilders). Maybe if we lowered the minor league roster size back to 10, it'd create more tough decisions and some prospects would go to FA and get bigger contracts, or get redrafted and make GMs have to be even more strategic during the supplemental draft. I'll never forgot that I dropped Larkin to keep Haydn Fleury because I thought Detroit was years away from calling him up...

[GypsieDeathBringer]

I would be ok with a 15%, 4 year prospect discount with a minimum value of $3m.

I would also be ok with bumping up the extension values of the top 10 D a little bit and leaving the rest similar to where they are.

I think it's important that we keep having these conversations about the health/improvement of the league, we monitor the general cap situation in the league, as well as general parity (keeping in mind there will also be rebuilders). Maybe if we lowered the minor league roster size back to 10, it'd create more tough decisions and some prospects would go to FA and get bigger contracts, or get redrafted and make GMs have to be even more strategic during the supplemental draft. I'll never forgot that I dropped Larkin to keep Haydn Fleury because I thought Detroit was years away from calling him up...

I also like the idea of bumping up the top 10 d-men or maybe even top 20 as the the league is getting higher scoring.