Rays and Indians agree to deal

[VolsRaysBucs]

sends:
OF Brandon Guyer 0.5 (p-2016)
SP Jesse Chavez 0.5 (2015)
C Reese McGuire 0.5 (p-n/a)
SP Jake Sisco 0.5 (p-n/a)
sends:
CI Pablo Sandoval 5.5 (2017)

Tampa Bay makes this move to be proactive in addressing our CI/DH in the wake of the VMart injury news.  I move a top 100 spec and two 1000+ scorers on attractive contracts for a CI who's solid but not spectacular.  Cleveland adds the depth they are looking for and shed 3.5m in cap space in the process.  Thanks for the easy talks, indiansnation to confirm at earliest convenience. 

[indiansnation]

I to agree to trade I'm getting a proven pitcher in Chavez, I'm getting a good c spec in McGuire and a another good spec in Sisco and adding a of in Guyer and saving money

[Tarheels55]

 

[Dan Wood]

 

This is essentially the same trade that has been vetoed twice now with different names. A defense first catcher (McGuire instead of O'conner), a fifth starter who may end up a long man (Chavez instead of Greene), a bench player (Guyer instead of Olt), and sicco is pretty much a non-prospect at this point. As much as I am not a fan of Panda, his age and contract make him more valuable than this. 

[VolsRaysBucs]

This is essentially the same trade that has been vetoed twice now with different names. A defense first catcher (McGuire instead of O'conner), a fifth starter who may end up a long man (Chavez instead of Greene), a bench player (Guyer instead of Olt), and sicco is pretty much a non-prospect at this point. As much as I am not a fan of Panda, his age and contract make him more valuable than this.

This deal requires more than a cursory glance and once-over of the players involved, as a simple name to name comparison does not suffice in evaluating the deal...
Guyer scored 1102 pts in 2014 (11.36 ppg) as the Rays 4th OF and RH DH platoon, a role he will have again in 2015 splitting time with Jaso and serving again as the 4th OF. Your comparison to Olt is not even in the ballpark, as Guyer has a clear role and path to playing time and has already established himself as a productive (no one's arguing spectacular) ML hitter.  Jesse Chavez scored 1258 (39.31 ppg) and is a lock to open the season in the A's rotation.  On an expiring contract, he figures to have a good shot of reaching Type A or B status, especially if he gains RP status, further increasing his value and hedging against a move to the pen.  Those 2014 combined points total 2360.  Panda scored 2241.  Show me in the other deal where the 2360 points were coming from?  You can't, because they aren't there, in fact you're 1166 points shy.  Now add in a top 100 spec who will play this entire season @ age 20 and is guaranteed to stick at a premium position and by all accounts whose offense is trending upwards and another SP that the recipient sought out.  Combine this with a cap-strapped team shedding 3.5 million in salary and actually gaining in past point production and you have the makings of a fair and balanced deal.  I respect your opinion and right to veto a deal but please base it on more than just name comparison alone.   You're still my boy, Blue. 

[Dan Wood]

I based it on the talent at hand. Gutter got his playing time due to injury. Chavez did as well, and after the smoke and mirrors wore off he got lit like a birthday candle and removed from the rotation. McGuire may play a premium position but he doesn't figure to be a 'fantasy' asset as his bat will be below average as defense is his calling card. And sisco, well I have a better chance of making the bigs. So I did base it on name value, and names are eerily similar to the deal that was universally panned less than a day ago. For a premium offensive player on a good contract and moving to a more favorable ballpark? No, sorry, value just isn't there. Other members of the TC may feel different but I do not. The guys headed to Cleveland are a dime a dozen

[VolsRaysBucs]

The only part of your statement that isn't pure opinion that I can refute is the part about Guyer's playing time coming by way of injury.  Guyer has long been a guy that crushed LHP, but he was also a guy coming off nagging injuries himself.  Last year was first year he had chance at extended PT and he produced to the tune of a 1.4 WAR/107 wRC+, both well above league average as the left handed side of a DH platoon and 4th OF who can play all 3 OF spots very well.  The Wil Myers injury was nothing more than a coincidence to his playing time, not the reason.  He was penciled into that role before the injury and his role changed little even after the injury, as it was Kevin Keirmaier was was the beneficiary of the injury.  The Rays are even actively trying to move DeJesus because Guyer established himself as their 4th OF and with the acquisition of Jaso, Guyer is the RH platoon mate, not DDJ.  In daily leagues like ours, to discount the value of a guy like Guyer (pun intended) is egregious. 

[Dan Wood]

Pure opinion? Chavez got killed in the second half and was removed from the rotation. That wasn't a fever dream of mine, it was an actual event. McGuire was drafted for his defense hoping his bat could catch up, but right now he looks like Austin Hedges with less pop and more batting average. He is a defense first catcher, which has become valuable in RL for 'stealing strikes' and framing, neither are categories that we employ. And back to Chavez, he was put in the rotation when Parker and Griffin went down. He also may not be guaranteed a spot for this season, which is also a fact. So I don't know how any of what I said is pure opinion. If I said Chavez has stupid hair, then that is an opinion. Focusing on a players skill set is not. McGuire = defense first catcher, Chavez = 5th starter/swingman(not exactly a hard thing to find) , Guyer = 29 year old short side of a platoon (not exactly a hard thing to find). Panda = 28 year old highly regarded CI on a good contract headed to a better ballpark than where he has played in the past... Which part of that is opinion?

[VolsRaysBucs]

Your analysis of Chavez's role is opinion for one.  You state "may be" and "fact" in the same breath.  He will open the season in the rotation because Parker and Griffin will not be ready (as stated by their GM, Billy Beane).  Unless Beane is just posturing, why would you assume Chavez will do anything other than open the season in the rotation?  If he does get bumped to the pen, I already illustrated how that would be a GOOD thing for his value.  How do you know him getting shelled in 2nd half was not the result of fatigue from increased workload and not smoke and mirrors?  You don't, it's conjecture.  The same conjecture suggests he may be a breakout candidate this year after a full offseason of preparation and being properly stretched out.  Conjecture works both ways.  Your analysis of McGuire of being glove first is indeed a fact, but your opinion that at 20 yrs of age he can not become anything more (despite industry wide opinion to the contrary) is just that; opinion.  Glove-first is actually a GOOD thing for a young catcher with a projectable bat, as it ensures he will stay on the position rather than move off of it (Myers, Alfaro, Rosario, etc, etc). The facts of the matter are that both Guyer and Chavez are proven, productive MLB players on league-minimum contracts that scored more points than Pablo Sandoval did in 2014.  That is not opinion, that is fact.  To speculate on what they may or may not do in 2015 and beyond is conjecture and nothing more.  Panda is switching leagues and coasts, historical precedent strongly suggests he will experience an adjustment period and struggle in 2015.  That too, is conjecture, but it works both ways.  There is both risk and reward associated with both sides of this deal, as any fair deal should have.  Guyer is just entering his "prime years" after years of injury, if we play the conjecture game, he may turn into Alex Gordon.  Speculation doesn't just work for the negative, which is why empirical data is so important when dissecting a trade; it helps to balance the variance of opinion and leave some theoretical "common ground" from which to evaluate.  "Guyer giving his car keys to Matt Bush was a bad idea" is an example of a statement being both opinion AND factual at the same time. 

[Corey]

This is essentially the same trade that has been vetoed twice now with different names. A defense first catcher (McGuire instead of O'conner), a fifth starter who may end up a long man (Chavez instead of Greene), a bench player (Guyer instead of Olt), and sicco is pretty much a non-prospect at this point. As much as I am not a fan of Panda, his age and contract make him more valuable than this. 

I 100% agree with assessment.  Sandoval is also going to a better park and a much better lineup. The exchange of talent is a bit off for for a very good player.